416 Pine Branch Ln · Magnolia, TX 77447

$288,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,042 sqft · SingleFamily · 72 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $142/sqft · 12% below area Est $329k · 12% under $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.9/15.0
• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lovely New D.R. Horton Two-Story Home in Maple Woods! Welcoming curb appeal! Spacious four-bedroom, two-and-a-half-bath layout designed for comfort and functionality. The open-concept family room and dining area flow seamlessly into the island kitchen—perfect for everyday living and effortless entertaining. The kitchen features 42” white shaker cabinetry and a large corner walk-in pantry for exceptional storage. The privately located primary suite offers a generously sized walk-in closet and a beautifully appointed bathroom with a glass encased oversized shower. Upstairs, enjoy a versatile game room ideal for gatherings, hobbies, or relaxation. Additional highlights include a convenient indoor utility room, a covered patio, and a full landscape package. Zoned to WISD! D.R. Horton—America’s #1 Homebuilder! Visit Maple Woods and make this stunning new home yours today!

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 72 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $289k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-176 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $263k (8.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (18.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $237k (18.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Evelyn Turlington El (math 46% / reading 45%, grade D-, #1,112 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 1,084 students, 69% FRL); Schultz J H (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 1,120 students, 65% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1791 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $236,832 (18.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.61%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $328,608
• List price: $288,990
• Delta: -12.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
517 Wax Myrtle Way	0.14mi	4/3.0	2,041 (-0%)	0mo	$314,990	$154	91
105 Rising Cedar Ln	0.12mi	4/2.5	2,042 (0%)	4mo	$303,990	$149	91
553 Wax Myrtle Way	0.14mi	4/3.0	2,041 (-0%)	2mo	$314,990	$154	90

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-64,923
• Equity at exit: $43,089

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.21×
• Total profit: $-97,535
• Equity at exit: $24,987

Cash invested: $80,917 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77447

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1791
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,368 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,515
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$361 /mo · $4,335/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$497
• Net cashflow: $-176

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,591

Max offer price $263,498

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $24	-5% $-76	+0% $-176	+5% $-276	+10% $-376
Rent	-10% $-363	-5% $-270	+0% $-176	+5% $-83	+10% $11
Rate	-1.0pp $-31	-0.5pp $-103	base $-176	+0.5pp $-251	+1.0pp $-327

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,248
• Closing costs: $8,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $288,990 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $288,990 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $288,990 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $288,990 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $288,990 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $288,990 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $288,990 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $288,990 Active 59 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $288,990 Active 58 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $288,990 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $288,990 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $288,990 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $288,990 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $288,990 Active 51 DOM
15. 2026-04-10
    listed $288,990 Active 904-char remark

    Show marketing remark (904 chars)

    Lovely New D.R. Horton Two-Story Home in Maple Woods! Welcoming curb appeal! Spacious four-bedroom, two-and-a-half-bath layout designed for comfort and functionality. The open-concept family room and dining area flow seamlessly into the island kitchen—perfect for everyday living and effortless entertaining. The kitchen features 42” white shaker cabinetry and a large corner walk-in pantry for exceptional storage. The privately located primary suite offers a generously sized walk-in closet and a beautifully appointed bathroom with a glass encased oversized shower. Upstairs, enjoy a versatile game room ideal for gatherings, hobbies, or relaxation. Additional highlights include a convenient indoor utility room, a covered patio, and a full landscape package. Zoned to WISD! D.R. Horton—America’s #1 Homebuilder! Visit Maple Woods and make this stunning new home yours today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,420
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,188
• − Property taxes: −$4,335
• − Insurance: −$1,445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,274
• − Management: −$2,274
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$8,407
• Taxable loss: −$7,102
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,704
• After-tax cash flow: $-410/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This D.R. Horton two-story home in Magnolia, TX, is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with minimal cosmetic updates needed to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting interior and exterior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and makes the home more inviting
• Rental HVAC maintenance — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency for tenants

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting interior and exterior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and makes the home more inviting ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency for tenants ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,231
• Household income: $116,925
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 265.0

Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.73%
• Current HPI: 249.6969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.58%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Listed $288,990 HARMLS