951 Lakeshore Dr · Big Thicket Lake Estates, TX 77327

$65,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,361 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 90 Days on market

Built 1980 1.01 ac lot $48/sqft · 39% below area Est $107k · 39% under $5/mo HOA ↓ 57% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very nice and quiet over an acre of land creek side/ water front. The home may or may not be salvageable. Client is selling for value of land/ utility. Existing septic, water and electricity to the land.The home has never flooded. Please use caution and if you enter the home do so at your own risk. The two storage buildings go with the sell of the property.

Key facts

• Existing electricity
• Acre of land
• Creek side

Tags

• ACRE OF LAND
• CREEK SIDE
• WATER FRONT
• EXISTING SEPTIC
• EXISTING WATER
• EXISTING ELECTRICITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $669 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $61k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.9% vs local median 4.0% in Big Thicket Lake Estates — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#1,532 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Hardin ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #354 of 826 in TX (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1574 active listings in the ZIP; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,100 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 48.50%
• DSCR: 3.16
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $107,349
• List price: $65,000
• Delta: -39.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
219 Lakeshore Dr	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,548 (+14%)	3mo	$255,000	$165	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 42.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.86×
• Total profit: $33,852
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 49.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.04×
• Total profit: $91,737
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1574
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,618 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$169 /mo · $2,034/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$5
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $669

Break-even live

Break-even rent $771

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $5 · $60/yr
• Likely covers: waterelectric

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $65,000 Active 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $65,000 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $65,000 Active 88 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,000 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $65,000 Active 85 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $65,000 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $65,000 Active 80 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $65,000 Active 79 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $65,000 Active 76 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $65,000 Active 75 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $65,000 Active 74 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $65,000 Active 73 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $65,000 Active 72 DOM
14. 2026-05-15
    status Active 360-char remark

    Show marketing remark (360 chars)

    Very nice and quiet over an acre of land creek side/ water front. The home may or may not be salvageable. Client is selling for value of land/ utility. Existing septic, water and electricity to the land.The home has never flooded. Please use caution and if you enter the home do so at your own risk. The two storage buildings go with the sell of the property.

15. 2026-05-15
    status Pending 360-char remark

    Show marketing remark (360 chars)

    Very nice and quiet over an acre of land creek side/ water front. The home may or may not be salvageable. Client is selling for value of land/ utility. Existing septic, water and electricity to the land.The home has never flooded. Please use caution and if you enter the home do so at your own risk. The two storage buildings go with the sell of the property.

16. 2026-05-11
    status Pending 360-char remark

    Show marketing remark (360 chars)

    Very nice and quiet over an acre of land creek side/ water front. The home may or may not be salvageable. Client is selling for value of land/ utility. Existing septic, water and electricity to the land.The home has never flooded. Please use caution and if you enter the home do so at your own risk. The two storage buildings go with the sell of the property.

17. 2026-04-18
    status Active 360-char remark

    Show marketing remark (360 chars)

    Very nice and quiet over an acre of land creek side/ water front. The home may or may not be salvageable. Client is selling for value of land/ utility. Existing septic, water and electricity to the land.The home has never flooded. Please use caution and if you enter the home do so at your own risk. The two storage buildings go with the sell of the property.

18. 2026-04-13
    status Pending 360-char remark

    Show marketing remark (360 chars)

    Very nice and quiet over an acre of land creek side/ water front. The home may or may not be salvageable. Client is selling for value of land/ utility. Existing septic, water and electricity to the land.The home has never flooded. Please use caution and if you enter the home do so at your own risk. The two storage buildings go with the sell of the property.

19. 2026-04-10
    status Pending 360-char remark

    Show marketing remark (360 chars)

    Very nice and quiet over an acre of land creek side/ water front. The home may or may not be salvageable. Client is selling for value of land/ utility. Existing septic, water and electricity to the land.The home has never flooded. Please use caution and if you enter the home do so at your own risk. The two storage buildings go with the sell of the property.

20. 2026-03-25
    status Active 360-char remark

    Show marketing remark (360 chars)

    Very nice and quiet over an acre of land creek side/ water front. The home may or may not be salvageable. Client is selling for value of land/ utility. Existing septic, water and electricity to the land.The home has never flooded. Please use caution and if you enter the home do so at your own risk. The two storage buildings go with the sell of the property.

21. 2026-03-09
    status Pending 360-char remark

    Show marketing remark (360 chars)

    Very nice and quiet over an acre of land creek side/ water front. The home may or may not be salvageable. Client is selling for value of land/ utility. Existing septic, water and electricity to the land.The home has never flooded. Please use caution and if you enter the home do so at your own risk. The two storage buildings go with the sell of the property.

22. 2026-02-25
    listed $65,000 Active 360-char remark

    Show marketing remark (360 chars)

    Very nice and quiet over an acre of land creek side/ water front. The home may or may not be salvageable. Client is selling for value of land/ utility. Existing septic, water and electricity to the land.The home has never flooded. Please use caution and if you enter the home do so at your own risk. The two storage buildings go with the sell of the property.

23. 2025-04-24
    historical
24. 2025-01-04
    price $85,000
25. 2025-01-04
    status Active
26. 2024-12-12
    historical
27. 2024-12-06
    status Active
28. 2024-11-04
    status Pending, Continue to Show
29. 2024-06-25
    price $120,000
30. 2024-05-10
    price $130,000
31. 2024-02-25
    listed $150,000 Active
32. 1999-12-04
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,034 · $169/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,034 · $169/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 76% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,413
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$2,034
• − Insurance: −$1,122
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,553
• − Management: −$1,553
• − HOA: −$60
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $7,559
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,814
• After-tax cash flow: $6,216/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hardin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4822380
• Math proficiency: 39% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $48,099
• Composite: 35.54/100
• National rank: #4907
• State rank: #354 of 826 in TX

Livability — Big Thicket Lake Estates

• Score: 48/100
• State rank: #1532
• US rank: #26123

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-56.7% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-05-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-18 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-25 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-03-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-02-25 Listed $65,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-24 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-01-04 Price Changed $85,000 HARMLS
• 2025-01-04 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2024-12-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-12-06 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2024-11-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-06-25 Price Changed $120,000 HARMLS
• 2024-05-10 Price Changed $130,000 HARMLS
• 2024-02-25 Listed $150,000 HARMLS
• 1999-12-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,034 · +10.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.