5251 Celestial Ct · Iowa Colony, TX 77583

$274,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,446 sqft · SingleFamily · 11 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $190/sqft · 17% below area Est $330k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.6/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* * Photos are representative, selections & features may vary with community * * Welcome home to the CARRIAGEHOUSE Plan- a beautifully designed ONE-STORY home offering 1,446 sq. ft. of thoughtfully planned living space. This home features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a 1-car garage, and a covered patio. Enjoy a LOW-MAINTENANCE lifestyle with stylish, modern finishes throughout. The open-concept layout seamlessly connects the kitchen, family room, and dining area. Retreat in the primary suite featuring a spa-like en-suite bath with an oversized shower and a generous walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Covered patio
• Oversized shower
• One-story home

Tags

• ONE-STORY HOME
• COVERED PATIO
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• SPA-LIKE EN-SUITE BATH
• OVERSIZED SHOWER
• GENEROUS WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-189 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $248k (9.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (21.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (21.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.1% in Iowa Colony — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#757 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1445 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $216,691 (21.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.94%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $330,201
• List price: $274,990
• Delta: -16.72%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4835 County Road 380	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,478 (+2%)	12mo	$214,900	$145	66
5026 Morrison Dr	1.13mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+4%)	25mo	$344,900	$230	39
8501 Pursley Blvd	0.46mi	3/1.5	1,213 (-16%)	22mo	$300,000	$247	33
4910 County Road 380	0.54mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,644 (+14%)	21mo	$400,000	$243	29
9006 Caribou Ct	1.49mi	3/2.0	1,664 (+15%)	15mo	$339,990	$204	27
9110 Pilgrim Cir	0.77mi	3/2.0	1,706 (+18%)	19mo	$450,000	$264	24
Briggs Elegance CT	1.41mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,269 (-12%)	21mo	$300,000	$236	18
5018 Morrison Dr	1.13mi	3/2.5	1,722 (+19%)	26mo	$379,900	$221	18
5303 Elegance Ct	1.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,755 (+21%)	23mo	$640,793	$365	16
9010 Caribou Ct	1.50mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,736 (+20%)	20mo	$389,900	$225	14
5035 Morrison Dr	1.12mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,736 (+20%)	26mo	$369,900	$213	11
5031 Morrison Dr	1.11mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,785 (+23%)	26mo	$374,900	$210	11

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-61,978
• Equity at exit: $41,002

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.18×
• Total profit: $-90,515
• Equity at exit: $23,776

Cash invested: $76,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77583

• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1445
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,167 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$344 /mo · $4,125/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$455
• Net cashflow: $-189

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,406

Max offer price $247,709

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2	-5% $-94	+0% $-189	+5% $-284	+10% $-379
Rent	-10% $-360	-5% $-274	+0% $-189	+5% $-103	+10% $-17
Rate	-1.0pp $-50	-0.5pp $-119	base $-189	+0.5pp $-260	+1.0pp $-332

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,748
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-15
   listed $274,990 Active 929-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,003
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$4,125
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,080
• − Management: −$2,080
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$7,061
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,695
• After-tax cash flow: $-568/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a low-maintenance lifestyle and is ready for immediate occupancy.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New lighting fixtures — Enhances interior aesthetics and safety ↑

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alvin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808090
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $66,740
• Composite: 38.96/100
• National rank: #4080
• State rank: #255 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 64/100

Livability — Iowa Colony

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #757
• US rank: #13904

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Iowa Colony, TX
• County: Brazoria County · 420,414 people
• City population: 52,747
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,747
• Household income: $119,287
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own

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Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.19%
• Current HPI: 198.6559
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B