5715 Lakefield Dr · Houston, TX 77033

$188,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,258 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1952 7,710 sqft lot Est $184k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.7/30.0
• ARV discount +6.4/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully remodeled three bedroom, one bath gem! Featuring a new roof, completely updated kitchen and bathroom with level 5 granite. All new flooring throughout with a large bonus living room. This is a great starter house that is perfect for the first time home buyer. Move in ready that includes a large utility room. HURRY THIS HOUSE WON'T LAST!

Key facts

• Updated kitchen
• New roof
• Updated bathroom

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• UPDATED BATHROOM
• LARGE BONUS LIVING ROOM
• LARGE UTILITY ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing agent is owner
• Financial info: Lease not considered
• HOA & community: Curbs in the community

Exterior

• Parking: No designated parking
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1952; Slab foundation
• Construction: Wood siding construction; Shingle and wood roof
• Exterior features: Fenced private yard; Back yard fencing; Subdivision setting; Concrete road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms total; Primary bedroom on the first floor (12 x 13); Two additional first-floor bedrooms (each 11 x 12)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Pantry; Tub with shower; Window treatments; Ceiling fans; Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: No laundry information provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $188k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $49 ($591/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (11.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $167k (11.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mading El (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 339 students, 96% FRL); Thomas Middle (math 3% / reading 13%, grade F, #1,654 of 1,662 statewide, top 100%, 526 students, 98% FRL); Sterling H S (math 16% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 1,421 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 96% FRL vs 71% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 18% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 345 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $14k; list at $188k implies a 1197% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,264 (11.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.12%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $183,668
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5746 Groveton St	0.09mi	3/1.0	1,200 (-5%)	4mo	$129,900	$108	84
9211 Vinearbor St	0.16mi	3/1.0	1,192 (-5%)	1mo	$179,900	$151	83
5746 Lakefield Dr	0.09mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,313 (+4%)	8mo	$165,000	$126	72
9215 Vinearbor St	0.15mi	3/1.0	1,165 (-7%)	11mo	$169,900	$146	72
5606 Elmlawn Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,341 (+7%)	8mo	$155,000	$116	68
5234 Wilmington St	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,230 (-2%)	1mo	$76,500	$62	67
5503 Ricky St	0.31mi	3/1.0	1,102 (-12%)	5mo	$110,000	$100	61
5502 Elm Tree Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-3%)	7mo	$175,000	$144	58
5527 Lakefield Dr	0.24mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,400 (+11%)	2mo	$240,000	$171	58
5531 Elm Tree Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,318 (+5%)	3mo	$197,500	$150	58
5217 Pederson St	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,158 (-8%)	7mo	$179,000	$155	51
8918 Vinearbor St	0.37mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,400 (+11%)	3mo	$239,900	$171	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-23,095
• Equity at exit: $28,031

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $2,189
• Equity at exit: $16,255

Cash invested: $52,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77033

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 345
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,673 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$986
• Tax from tax record: −$208 /mo · $2,495/yr
• Insurance: −$78
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$351
• Net cashflow: $49

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,610

Max offer price $188,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $156	-5% $102	+0% $49	+5% $-4	+10% $-57
Rent	-10% $-83	-5% $-17	+0% $49	+5% $115	+10% $181
Rate	-1.0pp $144	-0.5pp $97	base $49	+0.5pp $1	+1.0pp $-49

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,000
• Closing costs: $5,640
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5458 Osprey Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1614	$1,595	$0.99	23d	1	0.37mi
9509 Merle St Unit 9509A Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	1404	$1,500	$1.07	46d	1	0.41mi
10902 Faircroft Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1308	$1,455	$1.11	1d	1	0.46mi
5408 Groveton St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1472	$1,983	$1.35	1d	1	0.46mi
5426 Greylog Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1205	$1,750	$1.45	26d	1	0.62mi
5012 Higgins St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1611	$1,650	$1.02	26d	1	0.84mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 2047 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,113	$1.05	5d	1	0.90mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 3047 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1167	$1,324	$1.13	13d	1	0.90mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 2047 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,114	$1.05	1d	1	0.90mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 2187 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,124	$1.06	0d	1	0.90mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 3187 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1167	$1,324	$1.13	0d	1	0.90mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 510 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1167	$1,313	$1.13	13d	1	0.90mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 421 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,089	$1.03	7d	1	0.90mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 5659 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,113	$1.05	13d	1	0.90mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 422 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,089	$1.03	10d	1	0.90mi
4921a Pederson St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1765	$2,150	$1.22	15d	1	0.91mi
5407 Thrush Dr Houston, TX	4.0	1.0	1407	$1,495	$1.06	16d	1	0.93mi
4918 Wilmington St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1300	$2,100	$1.62	46d	1	0.99mi
6103 El Granate Dr Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1755	$1,585	$0.90	26d	1	1.00mi
6107 El Granate Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1192	$1,000	$0.84	7d	1	1.01mi
5036 Mallow St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1472	$2,050	$1.39	46d	1	1.05mi
4810 Wilmington St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1165	$1,650	$1.42	46d	1	1.10mi
11319 Murr Way Houston, TX	3.0	1.5	1213	$1,699	$1.40	21d	1	1.10mi
5767 Belcrest St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1480	$1,790	$1.21	46d	1	1.17mi
5623 Bellfort St Houston, TX	4.0	1.0	1320	$1,700	$1.29	17d	1	1.30mi
6160 Madden Ln Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	911	$1,209	$1.33	1d	266	1.30mi
4723 Mallow St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1472	$1,850	$1.26	7d	1	1.36mi
6505 Wide Meadow Dr Houston, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1696	$2,185	$1.29	17d	1	1.45mi
5942 Ridgeway Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1490	$2,250	$1.51	46d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $188,000 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $192,400 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $192,400 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $192,400 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $192,400 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 366-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $192,400 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,495 · $208/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,440 · $287/mo
• Expected delta: +$945/yr (+$79/mo · 37.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,072
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,531
• − Property taxes: −$2,495
• − Insurance: −$940
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,606
• − Management: −$1,606
• − Depreciation: −$5,469
• Taxable loss: −$2,575
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$618
• After-tax cash flow: $1,209/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,154
• Household income: $38,071
• Rent vs Own: 41.0% rent · 59.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1728.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 55% Hispanic / Latino 43% Two or more races 17% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 39%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -41.49%
• Current HPI: 212.6472
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.45%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1226.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $192,400 HARMLS
• 2024-04-10 Rental Removed $1,450 RENT.
• 2023-11-09 Listed for Rent $1,450 RENT.
• 2009-04-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2008-09-09 Listed $74,900 HARMLS
• 2008-09-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2008-02-05 Listed $45,900 HARMLS
• 2003-05-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1997-01-20 Sold (Public Records) $14,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,495 · -6.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.