4601 Barberry Ave · Lakeland, FL 33811

$377,490

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,447 sqft · Land · 70 Days on market

Built 2025 4,791 sqft lot $40/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. The Robie is a two-story floorplan featured in Summerlin at Hawthorne Ranch in Lakeland, Florida. With 2 exteriors to choose from, the Robie is sure to turn heads. Inside this inviting 5-bedroom, 3-bathroom home, you’ll find 2,447 square feet of comfortable living. This impressive all concrete block construction, two-story plan features a versatile floorplan to fit your needs. A spacious open-concept first floor which includes a well-appointed kitchen with sleek stainless-steel appliances overlooking the living and dining area. Just off the living room you will find the singular downstairs bedroom and full bathroom. As you move upstairs you are greeted with a spaci

Key facts

• Full bathroom
• Downstairs bedroom
• Two story floorplan

Tags

• TWO STORY FLOORPLAN
• OPEN CONCEPT FIRST FLOOR
• WELL APPOINTED KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• DOWNSTAIRS BEDROOM
• FULL BATHROOM

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $377k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-412 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $318k (15.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $283k (25.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $283k (25.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: R. Bruce Wagner Elementary School (math 54% / reading 42%, grade D, #1,171 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 946 students, 46% FRL); Sleepy Hill Middle School (math 29% / reading 34%, grade F, #453 of 571 statewide, top 81%, 1,090 students, 66% FRL); George W. Jenkins Senior High (math 25% / reading 49%, grade F, #340 of 667 statewide, top 52%, 2,451 students, 37% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 363 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($355k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $283,145 (25.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.68%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-95,634
• Equity at exit: $56,285

10-year hold

• IRR: -42.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.41×
• Total profit: $-148,852
• Equity at exit: $32,638

Cash invested: $105,697 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33811

• Home prices YoY: -26.2%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 363
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,831 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,980
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$472 /mo · $5,662/yr
• Insurance: −$157
• HOA: −$40
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$595
• Net cashflow: $-412

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,353

Max offer price $317,887

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-151	-5% $-281	+0% $-412	+5% $-542	+10% $-673
Rent	-10% $-636	-5% $-524	+0% $-412	+5% $-300	+10% $-188
Rate	-1.0pp $-222	-0.5pp $-316	base $-412	+0.5pp $-510	+1.0pp $-609

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $94,372
• Closing costs: $11,325
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5038 Foxglove Cir Lakeland, FL	5.0	3.0	2670	$2,850	$1.07	4d	1	0.34mi
5694 Arlington River Dr Lakeland, FL	5.0	3.0	2885	$2,700	$0.94	25d	1	0.55mi
3978 White Ibis Rd Lakeland, FL	4.0	2.0	1711	$2,395	$1.40	16d	1	0.58mi
5463 Arlington River Dr Lakeland, FL	5.0	3.0	2419	$2,800	$1.16	25d	1	0.61mi
3883 White Ibis Rd Lakeland, FL	3.0–4.0	2.0	1628	$2,434	$1.50	4d	1	0.81mi
4301 Salt Springs Ln Lakeland, FL	4.0	2.5	2585	$2,600	$1.01	5d	1	0.83mi
3973 Spruce Creek Dr Lakeland, FL	4.0	2.0	1929	$2,200	$1.14	25d	1	0.98mi
6265 Dolostone Dr Lakeland, FL	4.0	3.0	2038	$3,000	$1.47	5d	1	1.09mi
3615 Peregrine Way Lakeland, FL	4.0	2.5	2095	$3,200	$1.53	4d	1	1.15mi
3668 Sandhill Crane Dr Unit A11 Lakeland, FL	4.0	3.0	2079	$2,344	$1.13	13d	1	1.22mi
5340 Song Sparrow Ct Lakeland, FL	4.0	2.0	1701	$2,076	$1.22	25d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $40 · $480/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-03
   listed $377,490 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,977
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,145
• − Property taxes: −$5,662
• − Insurance: −$1,887
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,718
• − Management: −$2,718
• − HOA: −$480
• − Depreciation: −$10,982
• Taxable loss: −$11,616
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,788
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,155/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakeland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #3179

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeland, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 277,690
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,472
• Household income: $90,263
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 477.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Black 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 14% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.57%
• Current HPI: 309.0061
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.19%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-03 Listed $377,490 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid