8701 Dublin Ave · Odessa, TX 79765

$199,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,470 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1977 8,886 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

SWEET!!! This home has been totally redone. New carpet, A/C, heater, hot water heater, inside paint, kitchen counter tops & sink, fausets, door nobs and more. ready to move into.

Key facts

• 8,886 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1977

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener; Parking pad; 2 covered parking spaces (total 2 parking spaces)
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Propane available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Brick veneer construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built area approximately 1470
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; Landscaped yard; Corner lot; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range / electric cooktop; Dishwasher; Gas water heater
• Flooring: Tile; Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Blinds on windows; Wood-burning fireplace; Smoke detectors; Solar energy system
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $318 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $196k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#132 in TX, #3,928 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, amenities D.
• Ector County ISD (urban): math 22% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #707 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Permian H S (math 19% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,333 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 3,978 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 431 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 51% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,004 units permitted in Ector County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ector County population projected at +78% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $196,015 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.86%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-17,385
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-10,172
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79765

• Home prices YoY: -28.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 431
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,285 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$360 /mo · $4,325/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$480
• Net cashflow: $318

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,882

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $431	-5% $375	+0% $318	+5% $262	+10% $206
Rent	-10% $138	-5% $228	+0% $318	+5% $409	+10% $499
Rate	-1.0pp $419	-0.5pp $369	base $318	+0.5pp $267	+1.0pp $214

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 35 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8623 Holiday Dr Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1231	$1,800	$1.46	44d	1	0.08mi
8610 Lamar Ave Unit NA Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1700	$2,200	$1.29	13d	1	0.11mi
493 Chitalpa Dr Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1254	$2,500	$1.99	44d	1	0.31mi
8732 Rainbow Dr Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1573	$2,400	$1.53	44d	1	0.31mi
216 E 91st St Odessa, TX	3.0	3.0	1602	$2,500	$1.56	13d	1	0.50mi
8637 Tulane Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1044	$1,700	$1.63	44d	1	0.53mi
8633 Yale Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1371	$2,500	$1.82	13d	1	0.59mi
8633 Yale Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1390	$2,500	$1.80	21d	1	0.59mi
908 Purdue St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1480	$2,500	$1.69	44d	1	0.65mi
912 Purdue St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1773	$2,400	$1.35	44d	1	0.66mi
1025 Pine Leaf Pl Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$2,200	$1.56	44d	1	0.88mi
1115 Canal St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1833	$2,400	$1.31	44d	1	0.93mi
9017 Pepper Grass Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1778	$2,500	$1.41	44d	1	0.95mi
310 E 95th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1390	$2,300	$1.65	21d	1	0.98mi
1210 E 89th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1582	$2,600	$1.64	44d	1	1.01mi
1200 Cajun St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1102	$2,300	$2.09	21d	1	1.02mi
1028 E 90th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$2,145	$1.47	13d	1	1.03mi
1023 E 90th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1760	$2,500	$1.42	13d	1	1.04mi
1218 E 89th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1667	$2,400	$1.44	21d	1	1.05mi
713 E 96th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1564	$2,500	$1.60	44d	1	1.12mi
1320 E 89th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,800	$1.93	44d	1	1.15mi
808 E 96th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$2,350	$1.59	44d	1	1.16mi
900 E 96th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1644	$2,300	$1.40	44d	1	1.23mi
1327 Masquerade Blvd Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1377	$2,700	$1.96	45d	1	1.25mi
819 E 97th Ct Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1635	$2,350	$1.44	13d	1	1.25mi
1109 Wagon Way Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1515	$2,400	$1.58	13d	1	1.30mi
618 Juniper Ct Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1606	$2,700	$1.68	13d	1	1.31mi
9918 Lamar Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1596	$2,400	$1.50	13d	1	1.32mi
1226 E 92nd St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1526	$2,250	$1.47	13d	1	1.32mi
1303 Terra Cotta St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1377	$1,999	$1.45	44d	1	1.36mi
1306 E 94th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1488	$2,350	$1.58	21d	1	1.36mi
320 Panhandle Dr Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1595	$2,500	$1.57	44d	1	1.38mi
88 Maverick Dr Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1403	$2,200	$1.57	44d	1	1.47mi
10306 Sheriff St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1240	$2,050	$1.65	13d	1	1.48mi
10310 Creek St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1238	$2,300	$1.86	13d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $199,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 184-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $199,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,325 · $360/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,325 · $360/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,423
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$4,325
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,194
• − Management: −$2,194
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable income: $779
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$187
• After-tax cash flow: $3,634/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ector County ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818000
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,740
• Composite: 21.89/100
• National rank: #8233
• State rank: #707 of 826 in TX

Livability — Odessa

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #3928

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Odessa, TX
• County: Ector County · 131,169 people
• City population: 131,169
• Metro: Odessa, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,904
• Household income: $104,965
• Rent vs Own: 35.4% rent · 64.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 884.0

Population outlook (Ector County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 212,765 people
• By 2030: 241,962 · +13.7%
• By 2040: 306,582 · +44.1%
• By 2050: 379,755 · +78.5%
• By 2075: 568,991 · +167.4%
• By 2100: 709,829 · +233.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 41% Two or more races 15% Black 5% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 31% German/W. Germanic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ector

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.9) · D 23.2% · R 76.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: -48.0pp · 2024: -52.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.9 2020: R+47.8 2016: R+40.6 2012: R+48.9 2008: R+48.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.68%
• Current HPI: 173.4252
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.54%
• Metro: Odessa, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+190.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $199,000 ODMLS
• 2003-04-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-04-30 Sold (MLS) — ODMLS
• 2003-03-17 Listed $74,900 ODMLS
• 2000-10-13 Sold (MLS) — ODMLS
• 2000-08-16 Listed $68,500 ODMLS

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,325 · +13.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.