211 Morning Glory Ln · Columbia, VA 23022

$139,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 63 Days on market

Built 1973 14 ac lot $145/sqft · 45% below area Est $254k · 45% under ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Sold As-Is — 14 Acres — Fluvanna Serious upside here. 3BR/1BA home on 14 acres in Fluvanna County—prime for renovation, expansion, or a full reposition. Strong land value, no HOA, and plenty of room for additional structures, rental units, or long-term hold strategies. Easy access to Palmyra, Fork Union, Scottsville, and Rt. 15, making it a solid candidate for flip, rental, or portfolio acquisition. Cash buyers and investors—this is the kind of acreage play that doesn’t hit the market often. Let the land carry the value while you force the appreciation.

Key facts

• Strong land value
• No hoa
• 14 acres

Tags

• 14 ACRES
• STRONG LAND VALUE
• NO HOA
• EASY ACCESS TO PALMYRA
• EASY ACCESS TO FORK UNION
• EASY ACCESS TO SCOTTSVILLE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $115 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (8.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $128k (8.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 2.1% in Columbia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#546 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Fluvanna County Public School District (rural): math 61% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #34 of 131 in VA (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 138 units permitted in Fluvanna County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($961 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.5% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (2.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,852 (8.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.53%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $253,672
• List price: $139,000
• Delta: -45.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
407 Glenarvon Dr	0.14mi	3/1.0	960 (0%)	21mo	$242,000	$252	76

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.53% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $20,569
• Equity at exit: $58,824

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.73×
• Total profit: $67,365
• Equity at exit: $87,895

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23022

• Home prices YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 6
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,279 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$109 /mo · $1,303/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $115

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,133

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $139,000 Pending 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $139,000 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $139,000 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $139,000 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $139,000 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-05-18
   price $139,000 590-char remark

   Show marketing remark (590 chars)

   Sold As-Is — 14 Acres — Fluvanna Serious upside here. 3BR/1BA home on 14 acres in Fluvanna County—prime for renovation, expansion, or a full reposition. Strong land value, no HOA, and plenty of room for additional structures, rental units, or long-term hold strategies. Easy access to Palmyra, Fork Union, Scottsville, and Rt. 15, making it a solid candidate for flip, rental, or portfolio acquisition. Cash buyers and investors—this is the kind of acreage play that doesn’t hit the market often. Let the land carry the value while you force the appreciation.

7. 2026-05-12
   price $149,000 590-char remark

   Show marketing remark (590 chars)

   Sold As-Is — 14 Acres — Fluvanna Serious upside here. 3BR/1BA home on 14 acres in Fluvanna County—prime for renovation, expansion, or a full reposition. Strong land value, no HOA, and plenty of room for additional structures, rental units, or long-term hold strategies. Easy access to Palmyra, Fork Union, Scottsville, and Rt. 15, making it a solid candidate for flip, rental, or portfolio acquisition. Cash buyers and investors—this is the kind of acreage play that doesn’t hit the market often. Let the land carry the value while you force the appreciation.

8. 2026-04-01
   listed $185,000 Active 590-char remark

   Show marketing remark (590 chars)

   Sold As-Is — 14 Acres — Fluvanna Serious upside here. 3BR/1BA home on 14 acres in Fluvanna County—prime for renovation, expansion, or a full reposition. Strong land value, no HOA, and plenty of room for additional structures, rental units, or long-term hold strategies. Easy access to Palmyra, Fork Union, Scottsville, and Rt. 15, making it a solid candidate for flip, rental, or portfolio acquisition. Cash buyers and investors—this is the kind of acreage play that doesn’t hit the market often. Let the land carry the value while you force the appreciation.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,303 · $109/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,303 · $109/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,342
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$1,303
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,227
• − Management: −$1,227
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable loss: −$940
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$226
• After-tax cash flow: $1,601/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fluvanna County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101380
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $66,601
• Composite: 57.6/100
• National rank: #1065
• State rank: #34 of 131 in VA

Livability — Columbia

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #546
• US rank: #25364

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,130

Population outlook (Fluvanna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,237 people
• By 2030: 27,607 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 28,075 · +3.1%
• By 2050: 28,019 · +2.9%
• By 2075: 28,058 · +3.0%
• By 2100: 26,124 · -4.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 52% White 29% Two or more races 18% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Fluvanna

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.3) · D 46.4% · R 52.6% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -1.8pp · 2024: -6.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.3 2020: R+4.7 2016: R+9.4 2012: R+6.2 2008: R+1.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.53%
• Current HPI: 183.6021
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-24.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $139,000 CVRMLS
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $149,000 CVRMLS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $185,000 CVRMLS

Property tax history

+8.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,303 · +4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.