625 PR 1517 · Lake Medina Shores, TX 78003

$104,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 113 Days on market

Built 2016 1.10 ac lot $86/sqft · 43% below area Est $183k · 43% under $75/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 46% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

*SIGNIFICANT PRICE DROP - PRICED TO SELL* HIDDEN GEM / DIAMOND IN THE ROUGH* sitting on 1.1 acres, a 3-bed 2-bath Manufactured gem with SOLAR PANELS! Secluded subdivision with a live guard at gate entrance. Subdivision with its own private boat-ramp entrance to Medina Lake, not if, but when the lake fills up. Comes with a COVERED DECK at FRONT with a Handicap-accessible Ramp-Entrance included with the property!! Come by and come buy your next investment. SOLD AS-IS.

Key facts

• Covered deck
• Covered rear deck
• Solar panels

Tags

• SOLAR PANELS
• PRIVATE BOAT-RAMP ENTRANCE
• COVERED DECK
• COVERED REAR DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $104k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $536 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $104k).
• Recommended offer: $95k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.4% vs local median 4.8% in Lake Medina Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,318 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Hondo ISD (town): math 35% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #502 of 826 in TX (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 531 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 102 units permitted in Medina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $722 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Medina County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($95k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $38k (27%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $95,095 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.97%
• DSCR: 1.98
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $183,074
• List price: $104,500
• Delta: -42.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $17,286
• Equity at exit: $15,581

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.03×
• Total profit: $59,401
• Equity at exit: $9,035

Cash invested: $29,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78003

• Home prices YoY: -14.3%
• Active inventory: 531
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,750 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$548
• Tax from tax record: −$180 /mo · $2,164/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $536

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,072

Max offer price $104,500

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,125
• Closing costs: $3,135
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1110 Grandview Cir Bandera, TX	2.0	2.0	1125	$1,750	$1.56	43d	1	1.02mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-14
   price $104,500 471-char remark

   Show marketing remark (471 chars)

   *SIGNIFICANT PRICE DROP - PRICED TO SELL* HIDDEN GEM / DIAMOND IN THE ROUGH* sitting on 1.1 acres, a 3-bed 2-bath Manufactured gem with SOLAR PANELS! Secluded subdivision with a live guard at gate entrance. Subdivision with its own private boat-ramp entrance to Medina Lake, not if, but when the lake fills up. Comes with a COVERED DECK at FRONT with a Handicap-accessible Ramp-Entrance included with the property!! Come by and come buy your next investment. SOLD AS-IS.

2. 2026-04-16
   price $122,500 471-char remark

   Show marketing remark (471 chars)

   *SIGNIFICANT PRICE DROP - PRICED TO SELL* HIDDEN GEM / DIAMOND IN THE ROUGH* sitting on 1.1 acres, a 3-bed 2-bath Manufactured gem with SOLAR PANELS! Secluded subdivision with a live guard at gate entrance. Subdivision with its own private boat-ramp entrance to Medina Lake, not if, but when the lake fills up. Comes with a COVERED DECK at FRONT with a Handicap-accessible Ramp-Entrance included with the property!! Come by and come buy your next investment. SOLD AS-IS.

3. 2026-03-17
   price $132,500 471-char remark

   Show marketing remark (471 chars)

   *SIGNIFICANT PRICE DROP - PRICED TO SELL* HIDDEN GEM / DIAMOND IN THE ROUGH* sitting on 1.1 acres, a 3-bed 2-bath Manufactured gem with SOLAR PANELS! Secluded subdivision with a live guard at gate entrance. Subdivision with its own private boat-ramp entrance to Medina Lake, not if, but when the lake fills up. Comes with a COVERED DECK at FRONT with a Handicap-accessible Ramp-Entrance included with the property!! Come by and come buy your next investment. SOLD AS-IS.

4. 2026-02-02
   listed $142,300 New 471-char remark

   Show marketing remark (471 chars)

   *SIGNIFICANT PRICE DROP - PRICED TO SELL* HIDDEN GEM / DIAMOND IN THE ROUGH* sitting on 1.1 acres, a 3-bed 2-bath Manufactured gem with SOLAR PANELS! Secluded subdivision with a live guard at gate entrance. Subdivision with its own private boat-ramp entrance to Medina Lake, not if, but when the lake fills up. Comes with a COVERED DECK at FRONT with a Handicap-accessible Ramp-Entrance included with the property!! Come by and come buy your next investment. SOLD AS-IS.

5. 2025-10-17
   soldstatus $148,769
6. 2021-10-28
   soldstatus Sold 860-char remark

   Show marketing remark (860 chars)

   Top Notch Premier Series Palm Harbor Series by Fleetwood on 1.1 Acres. This is an amazing 3 bedroom 2 bath home, 1216 sq. ft. of living space, with an open concept split style floorplan. Home features smart home system with lots of light from the floor to ceiling style windows. There is solar panel array installed on the home. There is a large detached 12X30 storage bldg w/ radiant barrier, garage door & electric to store all of your toys, circle driveway, huge 20X40 wood deck to enjoy the stars and an outdoor firepit. There is a small fenced back yard perfect for your dog! Plenty of parking for large vehicles, RV's, boats, etc. Community features: gated access, lake access, boat ramp, rv parking, swimming pool, putt putt golf, basketball court, club house, playground, bbq pits & more! Come make this your permanent home or weekend getaway!

7. 2021-09-13
   status Pending 860-char remark

   Show marketing remark (860 chars)

   Top Notch Premier Series Palm Harbor Series by Fleetwood on 1.1 Acres. This is an amazing 3 bedroom 2 bath home, 1216 sq. ft. of living space, with an open concept split style floorplan. Home features smart home system with lots of light from the floor to ceiling style windows. There is solar panel array installed on the home. There is a large detached 12X30 storage bldg w/ radiant barrier, garage door & electric to store all of your toys, circle driveway, huge 20X40 wood deck to enjoy the stars and an outdoor firepit. There is a small fenced back yard perfect for your dog! Plenty of parking for large vehicles, RV's, boats, etc. Community features: gated access, lake access, boat ramp, rv parking, swimming pool, putt putt golf, basketball court, club house, playground, bbq pits & more! Come make this your permanent home or weekend getaway!

8. 2021-09-04
   historical Active Option 860-char remark

   Show marketing remark (860 chars)

   Top Notch Premier Series Palm Harbor Series by Fleetwood on 1.1 Acres. This is an amazing 3 bedroom 2 bath home, 1216 sq. ft. of living space, with an open concept split style floorplan. Home features smart home system with lots of light from the floor to ceiling style windows. There is solar panel array installed on the home. There is a large detached 12X30 storage bldg w/ radiant barrier, garage door & electric to store all of your toys, circle driveway, huge 20X40 wood deck to enjoy the stars and an outdoor firepit. There is a small fenced back yard perfect for your dog! Plenty of parking for large vehicles, RV's, boats, etc. Community features: gated access, lake access, boat ramp, rv parking, swimming pool, putt putt golf, basketball court, club house, playground, bbq pits & more! Come make this your permanent home or weekend getaway!

9. 2021-08-08
   price $264,500 860-char remark

   Show marketing remark (860 chars)

   Top Notch Premier Series Palm Harbor Series by Fleetwood on 1.1 Acres. This is an amazing 3 bedroom 2 bath home, 1216 sq. ft. of living space, with an open concept split style floorplan. Home features smart home system with lots of light from the floor to ceiling style windows. There is solar panel array installed on the home. There is a large detached 12X30 storage bldg w/ radiant barrier, garage door & electric to store all of your toys, circle driveway, huge 20X40 wood deck to enjoy the stars and an outdoor firepit. There is a small fenced back yard perfect for your dog! Plenty of parking for large vehicles, RV's, boats, etc. Community features: gated access, lake access, boat ramp, rv parking, swimming pool, putt putt golf, basketball court, club house, playground, bbq pits & more! Come make this your permanent home or weekend getaway!

10. 2021-07-06
    listed $275,000 New 860-char remark

    Show marketing remark (860 chars)

    Top Notch Premier Series Palm Harbor Series by Fleetwood on 1.1 Acres. This is an amazing 3 bedroom 2 bath home, 1216 sq. ft. of living space, with an open concept split style floorplan. Home features smart home system with lots of light from the floor to ceiling style windows. There is solar panel array installed on the home. There is a large detached 12X30 storage bldg w/ radiant barrier, garage door & electric to store all of your toys, circle driveway, huge 20X40 wood deck to enjoy the stars and an outdoor firepit. There is a small fenced back yard perfect for your dog! Plenty of parking for large vehicles, RV's, boats, etc. Community features: gated access, lake access, boat ramp, rv parking, swimming pool, putt putt golf, basketball court, club house, playground, bbq pits & more! Come make this your permanent home or weekend getaway!

11. 2019-06-05
    historical
12. 2018-12-19
    listed $193,000 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,164 · $180/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,164 · $180/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,854
• − Property taxes: −$2,164
• − Insurance: −$522
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,680
• − Management: −$1,680
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$3,040
• Taxable income: $5,160
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,238
• After-tax cash flow: $5,189/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hondo ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823430
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $47,344
• Composite: 30.51/100
• National rank: #6215
• State rank: #502 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lake Medina Shores

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1318
• US rank: #22715

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,594

Population outlook (Medina County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 54,332 people
• By 2030: 57,250 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 62,563 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 67,386 · +24.0%
• By 2075: 79,538 · +46.4%
• By 2100: 84,624 · +55.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 15% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Serbian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Medina

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.8) · D 28.2% · R 71.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.9pp toward R · 2008: -33.9pp · 2024: -42.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.8 2020: R+39.2 2016: R+43.2 2012: R+39.2 2008: R+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -35.80%
• Current HPI: 215.0687
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-45.9% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $104,500 LERA
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $122,500 LERA
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $132,500 LERA
• 2026-02-02 Listed $142,300 LERA
• 2025-10-17 Sold (Public Records) $148,769 Public Records
• 2021-10-28 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2021-09-13 Pending — LERA
• 2021-09-04 Contingent — LERA
• 2021-08-08 Price Changed $264,500 LERA
• 2021-07-06 Listed $275,000 LERA
• 2019-06-05 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2018-12-19 Listed $193,000 LERA

Property tax history

+20.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,164 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.