18 N US 19-e Hwy · Newland, NC 28657

$149,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 3,240 sqft · SingleFamily · 116 Days on market

Built 1954 Poor condition 3.44 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.3/30.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Once the local stop for gas and a sandwich, the back corner of this building is also the location of the old Frank Rural Station Post Office. Above the store are five bedrooms, two kitchens, two living rooms, two bathrooms, and two laundry areas just waiting to be updated and become a cool AirBnB with views of North Toe River and surrounding mountains, a full time residence for a family, or whatever your heart desires. Behind the store is the barber shop where folks could get a haircut for about 30 years. This was eventually converted to living space with a living and sleeping area, kitchen, laundry area, and full bathroom, and the store to an antique shop. There are three additional buildi

Key facts

• Great well
• 3.44 acre lot
• Built 1954

Tags

• VIEWS OF NORTH TOE RIVER
• SURROUNDING MOUNTAINS
• CONVERTED LIVING SPACE
• THREE ADDITIONAL BUILDINGS
• GREAT WELL

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Private well water; Private sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Two-story home; 2 total stories
• Construction: Brick construction; Metal roof; Slab foundation; Built living area approximately 3,240 above-grade
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Publicly maintained road; Guest house on property

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Has heating; Electric heating; Forced air; Heat pump; Oil heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: No fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup on upper level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $149k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $386 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 1.4% in Newland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#247 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Avery County Schools (rural): math 47% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #70 of 178 in NC (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Riverside Elementary (math 24% / reading 44%, grade F, #835 of 1,410 statewide, top 62%, 100 students, 69% FRL); Avery County High (math 47% / reading 67%, grade C, #248 of 535 statewide, top 48%, 613 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 48% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 209 active listings in the ZIP; 95 units permitted in Avery County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Avery County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $135,590 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.11%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $686,880
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
31 Bailey Mathes Farm Ln	0.58mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,835 (-12%)	5mo	$600,000	$212	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $478
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.77×
• Total profit: $32,197
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28657

• Home prices YoY: -21.1%
• Active inventory: 209
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,792 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$186 /mo · $2,235/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$376
• Net cashflow: $386

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,303

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $489	-5% $438	+0% $386	+5% $335	+10% $283
Rent	-10% $245	-5% $315	+0% $386	+5% $457	+10% $528
Rate	-1.0pp $461	-0.5pp $424	base $386	+0.5pp $348	+1.0pp $308

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $149,000 Active 116 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $149,000 Active 115 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,000 Active 113 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,000 Active 112 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,000 Active 111 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,000 Active 110 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,000 Active 108 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $149,000 Active 107 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,000 Active 104 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $149,000 Active 103 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,000 Active 102 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,000 Active 101 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $149,000 Active 98 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,000 Active 97 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,000 Active 96 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 95 DOM
17. 2026-03-04
    status Active
18. 2026-02-07
    status Pending
19. 2026-02-03
    historical Active Under Contract
20. 2026-01-31
    listed $149,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,507
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$2,235
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,721
• − Management: −$1,721
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable income: $2,405
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$577
• After-tax cash flow: $4,057/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and maintenance, including a new roof and exterior wall cleaning and repainting. The overall condition is poor, and significant investment is needed to improve its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — The roof appears to be in poor condition, with visible wear and tear and potential leaks.
• Major exterior walls — The exterior walls are covered in ivy and vines, which may indicate neglect and require removal and repainting.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale roof replacement — A new roof will significantly improve the property's appearance and increase its resale value.
• Resale exterior wall cleaning and repainting — Cleaning and repainting the exterior walls will improve the property's curb appeal and increase its resale value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · The roof appears to be in poor condition, with visible wear and tear and potential leaks.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior walls · The exterior walls are covered in ivy and vines, which may indicate neglect and require removal and repainting.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$30,000–100,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale roof replacement — A new roof will significantly improve the property's appearance and increase its resale value. ↑
• Resale exterior wall cleaning and repainting — Cleaning and repainting the exterior walls will improve the property's curb appeal and increase its resale value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Avery County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700300
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $36,713
• Composite: 41.09/100
• National rank: #3571
• State rank: #70 of 178 in NC

Livability — Newland

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #247
• US rank: #11051

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,098

Population outlook (Avery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,283 people
• By 2030: 16,979 · -1.8%
• By 2040: 16,222 · -6.1%
• By 2050: 15,581 · -9.8%
• By 2075: 14,499 · -16.1%
• By 2100: 13,463 · -22.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 13% Slovak 7% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Avery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.4) · D 23.4% · R 75.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.3pp toward R · 2008: -44.1pp · 2024: -52.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.4 2020: R+52.7 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+50.2 2008: R+44.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.50%
• Current HPI: 214.8543
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-04 Relisted — HCMLS
• 2026-02-07 Pending — HCMLS
• 2026-02-03 Contingent — HCMLS
• 2026-01-31 Listed $149,000 HCMLS