4924 Porky Ln · St. James City, FL 33956

$220,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1996

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A nice home in Pine Island Cove, close to the clubhouse and swimming pool. Large master bedroom, bath and closets. Open floor plan with a lanai looking out on landscaped area. This community has a community boat launch to get you to the great fishing around Pine Island. Also, a community pool with a clubhouse and friendly people. There is a nice storage area with washer and dryer right outside door. Come take a look.

Key facts

• Pickle ball
• Bocce ball
• Handicap accessible

Tags

• PRIVATE BOAT RAMP
• LARGE STORAGE COMPOUND
• BOCCE BALL
• PICKLE BALL
• HANDICAP ACCESSIBLE
• NEW WATER HEATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-195 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $186k (15.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (4.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $186k (15.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.9% in St. James City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 287 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $220k implies a 120% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $185,584 (15.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.51%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-47,815
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-56,628
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33956

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Active inventory: 287
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,112 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$191 /mo · $2,297/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
• Net cashflow: $-195

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,359

Max offer price $185,584

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4944 Porky Ln Saint James City, FL	2.0	2.0	831	$1,600	$1.93	24d	1	0.02mi
7150 Cobiac Dr Saint James City, FL	2.0	2.0	826	$1,950	$2.36	24d	1	0.16mi
4807 Flamingo Dr Saint James City, FL	3.0	2.0	1404	$3,500	$2.49	2d	1	0.30mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $220,000 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $220,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $220,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $220,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $220,000 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $220,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $220,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $220,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-05-26
   listed $220,000 Active
10. 2019-12-03
    soldstatus $100,000
11. 2019-11-27
    soldstatus $100,000 Closed 420-char remark

    Show marketing remark (420 chars)

    A nice home in Pine Island Cove, close to the clubhouse and swimming pool. Large master bedroom, bath and closets. Open floor plan with a lanai looking out on landscaped area. This community has a community boat launch to get you to the great fishing around Pine Island. Also, a community pool with a clubhouse and friendly people. There is a nice storage area with washer and dryer right outside door. Come take a look.

12. 2019-11-14
    status Pending 420-char remark

    Show marketing remark (420 chars)

    A nice home in Pine Island Cove, close to the clubhouse and swimming pool. Large master bedroom, bath and closets. Open floor plan with a lanai looking out on landscaped area. This community has a community boat launch to get you to the great fishing around Pine Island. Also, a community pool with a clubhouse and friendly people. There is a nice storage area with washer and dryer right outside door. Come take a look.

13. 2019-11-14
    status Active 420-char remark

    Show marketing remark (420 chars)

    A nice home in Pine Island Cove, close to the clubhouse and swimming pool. Large master bedroom, bath and closets. Open floor plan with a lanai looking out on landscaped area. This community has a community boat launch to get you to the great fishing around Pine Island. Also, a community pool with a clubhouse and friendly people. There is a nice storage area with washer and dryer right outside door. Come take a look.

14. 2019-11-04
    status Pending 420-char remark

    Show marketing remark (420 chars)

    A nice home in Pine Island Cove, close to the clubhouse and swimming pool. Large master bedroom, bath and closets. Open floor plan with a lanai looking out on landscaped area. This community has a community boat launch to get you to the great fishing around Pine Island. Also, a community pool with a clubhouse and friendly people. There is a nice storage area with washer and dryer right outside door. Come take a look.

15. 2019-09-09
    listed $117,000 Active 420-char remark

    Show marketing remark (420 chars)

    A nice home in Pine Island Cove, close to the clubhouse and swimming pool. Large master bedroom, bath and closets. Open floor plan with a lanai looking out on landscaped area. This community has a community boat launch to get you to the great fishing around Pine Island. Also, a community pool with a clubhouse and friendly people. There is a nice storage area with washer and dryer right outside door. Come take a look.

16. 2019-07-28
    historical
17. 2019-07-22
    status Active
18. 2019-06-26
    historical
19. 2019-03-18
    price $125,000
20. 2018-11-30
    listed $133,000 Active
21. 1995-10-02
    soldstatus $71,900
22. 1987-02-13
    soldstatus $63,000
23. 1987-02-01
    soldstatus $63,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,297 · $191/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,297 · $191/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,344
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$2,297
• − Insurance: −$6,218
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,028
• − Management: −$2,028
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$5,950
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,428
• After-tax cash flow: $-910/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — St. James City

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. James City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 3,846

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3% Pacific Islander 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% German/W. Germanic 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.47%
• Current HPI: 300.1416
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+249.2% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $220,000 FSBO.com
• 2019-12-03 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 2019-11-27 Sold (MLS) $100,000 FORTMLS
• 2019-11-14 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2019-11-14 Relisted — FORTMLS
• 2019-11-04 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2019-09-09 Listed $117,000 FORTMLS
• 2019-07-28 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2019-07-22 Relisted — FORTMLS
• 2019-06-26 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2019-03-18 Price Changed $125,000 FORTMLS
• 2018-11-30 Listed $133,000 FORTMLS
• 1995-10-02 Sold (Public Records) $71,900 Public Records
• 1987-02-13 Sold (Public Records) $63,000 Public Records
• 1987-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $63,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,297 · +18.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.