2952 Morris Dr · Bartow, FL 33830

$249,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,116 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1975 7,706 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Needs TLC. Property is being sold as is. Age of big ticket items unknown. Limited-service listing - Please see realtor remarks for showing instructions.

Key facts

• Fully renovated
• New water heater
• New a/c

Tags

• FULLY RENOVATED
• NEW ROOF
• NEW A/C
• NEW WATER HEATER
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• NEW CABINETRY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: R-3; Lot is landscaped and private; Lot dimensions approximately 66 x 104 (0.18 acres); Asphalt public-maintained road; Furnished; No CDD; No association approval required; No home warranty

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Carport with 2 spaces
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Private water source; Public sewer; Electricity available; Public water available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Southwest facing; Completed condition; Homestead exempt
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on public records (living area source)
• Exterior features: Private mailbox; Storage; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump; Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Living room and dining room combo; Open floorplan; Thermostat; Aluminum window frames; Blinds; Double-pane windows; Electric water heater; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Compressor (other equipment)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $30 ($358/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (16.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (16.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#526 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 386 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($245k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $131k; list at $249k implies a 90% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $209,169 (16.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.51%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-39,067
• Equity at exit: $37,127

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-34,089
• Equity at exit: $21,529

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33830

• Home prices YoY: -19.8%
• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 386
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,092 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$213 /mo · $2,557/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$439
• Net cashflow: $30

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,054

Max offer price $249,000

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1707 Valencia Blvd Bartow, FL	3.0	2.0	1195	$1,831	$1.53	3d	1	1.00mi
3280 Denmark St Bartow, FL	3.0	1.5	936	$1,500	$1.60	23d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-16
   statusdays on market $249,000 Pending 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,000 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $249,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   days on market $254,900 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $254,900 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $254,900 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $254,900 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-05
   days on market $254,900 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $254,900 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $254,900 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $254,900 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $254,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,557 · $213/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,557 · $213/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,100
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$2,557
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,008
• − Management: −$2,008
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable loss: −$3,909
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$938
• After-tax cash flow: $1,296/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bartow

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #526
• US rank: #9835

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 33,740
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,740
• Household income: $63,918
• Rent vs Own: 31.1% rent · 68.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 681.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 18% Two or more races 13% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.47%
• Current HPI: 333.3392
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.72%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+97.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $254,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-17 Sold (Public Records) $131,000 Public Records
• 2026-03-03 Sold (MLS) $131,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-18 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-06 Listed $129,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+16.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,557 · +8.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.