20 Amesbury Rd Unit B · Pine Ridge at Crestwood, NJ 08759

$165,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 965 sqft · SingleFamily · 15 Days on market

Built 1984 Average condition 0.31 ac lot $171/sqft · 19% below area Est $204k · 19% under $142/mo HOA · 8% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to carefree living in this desirable adult community! This well-maintained Wessex model in Crestwood Village Six offers 2 bedrooms and 1 full bath. The home features a bright and inviting living room and dining room combo, along with an eat-in kitchen complete with hardwood floors, a bay window for abundant natural light, and a full stainless steel appliance package. Two generously sized bedrooms offer ample closet space with mirrored glass doors. The full bath is updated with vinyl plank flooring. Additional highlights include a separate laundry room, and a one-car attached garage. Relax and unwind in the beautiful screened-in porch, perfect for enjoying peaceful mornings or evenin

Key facts

• Screened-in porch
• Bay window
• Wessex model

Tags

• WESSEX MODEL
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• BAY WINDOW
• SEPARATE LAUNDRY ROOM
• SCREENED-IN PORCH
• CLOSE TO JERSEY SHORE BEACHES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA exists (Crestwood Village 6); Monthly HOA fee; HOA covers trash, common area, lawn maintenance, snow removal; Community amenities include clubhouse and common areas; no pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Model: WESSEX; Fee simple ownership
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooking; Microwave; Stove; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric baseboard heat; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Outdoor lighting; Ceiling fan(s); Light fixtures
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $149 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $163k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 5.9% in Pine Ridge at Crestwood — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#481 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 648 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,525 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.88%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $204,195
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -19.19%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20 Amesbury Rd Unit B	0.00mi	2/1.0	965 (0%)	0mo	$168,000	$174	100
8 Mill Rd #64	0.14mi	2/1.0	965 (0%)	8mo	$170,000	$176	87
15 Alpine Rd Unit C	0.22mi	2/1.0	965 (0%)	8mo	$229,000	$237	83
40 Stonybrook Rd #62	0.52mi	2/1.0	1,008 (+4%)	3mo	$150,000	$149	66
11B Amherst Rd #64	0.09mi	2/1.0	1,098 (+14%)	8mo	$220,000	$200	66
15A Alpine Rd #63	0.22mi	2/2.0	1,076 (+12%)	1mo	$205,000	$191	65
7 Amherst Rd Unit A	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,076 (+12%)	1mo	$225,000	$209	65
41 Stonybrook Rd Unit A	0.56mi	2/1.0	924 (-4%)	5mo	$168,000	$182	63
1 Greenwood Ln Unit B	0.61mi	2/1.0	1,009 (+5%)	2mo	$252,000	$250	62
8 Alpine Rd Unit B	0.21mi	2/1.0	1,098 (+14%)	7mo	$215,000	$196	61
8 Alpine Rd Unit B	0.21mi	2/1.0	1,098 (+14%)	7mo	$215,000	$196	61
45 Beaver Ave	0.57mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+9%)	5mo	$79,900	$76	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-17,102
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-2,166
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08759

• Active inventory: 648
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,812 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$206 /mo · $2,475/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$142
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$381
• Net cashflow: $149

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,623

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7 Teal Ct Whiting, NJ	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,600	$1.52	4d	1	0.71mi
57D Milford Ave Unit 53 Whiting, NJ	2.0	1.0	880	$1,800	$2.05	25d	1	1.04mi
19B Maplewood Dr #52 Whiting, NJ	2.0	1.5	1109	$2,250	$2.03	17d	1	1.33mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $142 · $1,704/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-12
   listed $165,000 Active 894-char remark
2. 2026-04-17
   listed $175,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 65% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,748
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,475
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,740
• − Management: −$1,740
• − HOA: −$1,704
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$778
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$187
• After-tax cash flow: $1,981/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in average condition with cosmetic updates needed. Fresh paint and flooring can significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor paint — paint appears faded
• Minor flooring — carpeted floors in living areas

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and value
• Resale flooring — Replacing carpet with hardwood or tile can increase the home's value
• Rental kitchen appliances — Upgrading to modern appliances can attract renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
paint · paint appears faded	Minor	$500–3,000
flooring · carpeted floors in living areas	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale paint — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and value ↑
• Resale flooring — Replacing carpet with hardwood or tile can increase the home's value ↑
• Rental kitchen appliances — Upgrading to modern appliances can attract renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Pine Ridge at Crestwood

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #481
• US rank: #18916

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pine Ridge at Crestwood, NJ
• City population: 34,290
• Population (ZIP): 34,290

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
• Current HPI: 274.4679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

-4.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Sold (MLS) $168,000 MOMLS
• 2026-05-27 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $165,000 MOMLS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $175,000 MOMLS