5548 Thunder Bay Dr · Fort Worth, TX 76119

$279,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,962 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 2014 4,443 sqft lot $143/sqft · 15% below area Est $330k · 15% under $32/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.4/15.0
• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 5548 Thunder Bay Dr, an inviting home nestled in a convenient Fort Worth location. The spacious living area flows seamlessly into the dining space and kitchen, creating a bright and connected atmosphere. The kitchen features ample cabinetry, generous counter space, and a layout that makes meal prep and hosting easy. The primary suite provides a comfortable retreat with a private bath and good closet space, while the additional bedrooms offer flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. Step outside to a private backyard with plenty of room for relaxing, pets, or outdoor gatherings. Conveniently located near major highways, shopping, dining, and schools, this home offers both

Key facts

• Ample cabinetry
• Spacious living area
• Private backyard

Tags

• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA
• AMPLE CABINETRY
• GENEROUS COUNTER SPACE
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• CONVENIENT LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Waterfront Enchanted Bay Fwy subdivision; Parcel and land details recorded with assessor
• Financial info: Listing accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA, and VA financing
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Quarterly HOA fee; HOA covers management fees; HOA managed by Essex Assoc Mgmt

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener; Covered parking for 2 vehicles; Driveway
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Concrete and curb infrastructure; Sidewalks; Irrigation equipment
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Two-story; Entry level primary bedroom
• Construction: Built in 2014; Brick and siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; Gated community features; Curbs and sidewalks; Concrete driveways/paths; All-weather road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen island; Pantry; Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level; Three additional bedrooms on second level (two with walk-in closets)
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric); Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; High-speed internet available; Walk-in closets; One living area; One dining area; 7 total rooms; Two levels
• Laundry & utility: Separate utility room; Full-size washer/dryer area; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-251 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $236k (15.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (18.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $228k (18.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.9% in Fort Worth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#49 in TX, #1,954 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Fort Worth ISD (urban): math 18% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #742 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Sunrise - Mcmillan El (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #4,259 of 4,322 statewide, top 99%, 325 students, 98% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 73% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 10% at this address vs 23% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fort Worth ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 187 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,277/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($51k/yr) (locally 2221% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $227,680 (18.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.84%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $330,299
• List price: $279,900
• Delta: -15.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5541 Grenada Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,896 (-3%)	1mo	$389,900	$206	84
4503 Lake Park Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,975 (+1%)	1mo	$350,000	$177	70
5512 Grenada Dr	0.07mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,231 (+14%)	2mo	$320,000	$143	66
5804 Grenada Ct	0.10mi	4/2.5	2,243 (+14%)	6mo	$325,000	$145	64
5712 Shore Point Trl	0.45mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,013 (+3%)	3mo	$319,000	$158	64
5649 Willamette Dr	0.40mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,805 (-8%)	2mo	$282,000	$156	59
4720 Michelle Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,889 (-4%)	4mo	$370,000	$196	56
7107 Greenspring Dr	0.68mi	4/2.5	2,002 (+2%)	10mo	$295,000	$147	54
7116 Bowman Springs Rd	0.60mi	4/1.5	1,778 (-9%)	3mo	$365,000	$205	51
4710 Michelle Dr	0.59mi	4/2.0	2,242 (+14%)	4mo	$340,000	$152	45
7110 Forestview Dr	0.67mi	4/2.5	2,209 (+13%)	5mo	$310,000	$140	42
4609 Lupin Pl	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,724 (-12%)	7mo	$343,000	$199	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-67,914
• Equity at exit: $41,734

10-year hold

• IRR: -39.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.34×
• Total profit: $-105,088
• Equity at exit: $24,201

Cash invested: $78,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76119

• Home prices YoY: -6.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 187
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,277 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$433 /mo · $5,200/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$32
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$478
• Net cashflow: $-251

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,595

Max offer price $235,547

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-93	-5% $-172	+0% $-251	+5% $-330	+10% $-410
Rent	-10% $-431	-5% $-341	+0% $-251	+5% $-161	+10% $-71
Rate	-1.0pp $-110	-0.5pp $-180	base $-251	+0.5pp $-324	+1.0pp $-397

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,975
• Closing costs: $8,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5533 Grenada Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	2065	$2,700	$1.31	45d	1	0.10mi
5640 Willamette Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	3.5	2013	$2,340	$1.16	45d	1	0.39mi
5641 Willamette Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.5	1631	$2,150	$1.32	18d	1	0.41mi
5500 David Strickland Rd Fort Worth, TX	5.0	2.0	1635	$1,895	$1.16	26d	1	0.44mi
5664 Shore Point Trl Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.5	1742	$2,150	$1.23	45d	1	0.47mi
5541 Topwater Trl Fort Worth, TX	3.0	3.0	2089	$6,100	$2.92	4d	1	0.51mi
5532 Shore Point Trl Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.5	1446	$1,950	$1.35	45d	1	0.54mi
5505 Shore Point Trl Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.5	2043	$2,300	$1.13	26d	1	0.59mi
5104 Applegate Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	3.5	2013	$2,340	$1.16	45d	1	0.70mi
6905 Forestview Dr Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1780	$2,149	$1.21	26d	1	0.88mi
7014 Cadillac Blvd Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$2,199	$1.44	45d	1	0.92mi
4131 Crossgate Ct Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1845	$2,350	$1.27	0d	1	1.02mi
6610 Greenspring Dr Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1517	$1,895	$1.25	0d	1	1.07mi
6610 Greenspring Dr Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1517	$2,295	$1.51	46d	1	1.07mi
6515 Greenspring Dr Arlington, TX	4.0	2.0	1900	$2,295	$1.21	45d	1	1.17mi
6512 High Country Trl Arlington, TX	4.0	2.0	2368	$2,475	$1.05	3d	1	1.21mi
6606 Cliffwood Ct Arlington, TX	4.0	2.5	2220	$3,000	$1.35	0d	1	1.28mi
4010 Southern Charm Ct Arlington, TX	3.0	2.5	1540	$1,995	$1.30	18d	1	1.32mi
4611 Rockland Dr Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1936	$2,050	$1.06	45d	1	1.39mi
5712 Whittlesey Rd Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1610	$2,000	$1.24	46d	1	1.48mi
3900 Brookgate Ct Arlington, TX	4.0	2.5	2327	$2,256	$0.97	45d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $32 · $384/yr

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-04
   status $279,900 Pending 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $279,900 Active Option Contract 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $279,900 Active Option Contract 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $279,900 Active Option Contract 35 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $279,900 Active Option Contract 34 DOM
6. 2026-05-11
   price $289,900 730-char remark
7. 2026-04-27
   listed $299,900 Active 730-char remark
8. 2014-09-17
   soldstatus
9. 2014-06-18
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,200 · $433/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,200 · $433/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,322
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,679
• − Property taxes: −$5,200
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,186
• − Management: −$2,186
• − HOA: −$384
• − Depreciation: −$8,143
• Taxable loss: −$7,854
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,885
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,128/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Worth ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819700
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $42,109
• Composite: 19.61/100
• National rank: #8753
• State rank: #742 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fort Worth

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #49
• US rank: #1954

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort Worth, TX
• County: Tarrant County · 2,033,669 people
• City population: 911,619
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,974
• Household income: $51,267
• Rent vs Own: 45.3% rent · 54.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 2221.0

Population outlook (Tarrant County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,380,417 people
• By 2030: 2,578,900 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 2,974,995 · +25.0%
• By 2050: 3,350,489 · +40.8%
• By 2075: 4,216,909 · +77.2%
• By 2100: 4,741,527 · +99.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 51% Black 36% Two or more races 26% White 8% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 44%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 54% English-only · Spanish 42% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tarrant

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.1) · D 46.7% · R 51.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -5.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.1 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+8.7 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -23.04%
• Current HPI: 336.7941
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.61%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-05-29 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $279,900 NTREIS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $289,900 NTREIS
• 2026-04-27 Listed $299,900 NTREIS
• 2014-09-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-06-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+11.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,200 · -18.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.