231 Elmer St · Trenton, NJ 08611

$229,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,374 sqft · Townhouse public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1887 1,630 sqft lot Est $228k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.3/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

None

Key facts

• Built 1887
• Listed 43 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Assessor-listed finished above-grade area: 1,374 sq ft; Ownership interest: Fee Simple

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas available; Electric available; Cable TV available
• Home design: Interior townhouse / rowhouse; Fee simple ownership; Property in good condition
• Construction: Frame construction; Brick/mortar foundation; Above-grade and below-grade structures; Built year per assessor
• Exterior features: Lot dimensions approximately 16.3 x 100 ft; No tidal water

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (no specific appliances listed)
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the first upper level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Radiator / hot water heating; Natural gas heating and hot water; Window air conditioning units (electric)
• Interior features: Living room; Dining room; Full basement with interior access
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in the basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $229k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $80 ($963/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (10.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $205k (10.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#133 in NJ, #3,533 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Trenton Public School District (urban): math 2% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #471 of 472 in NJ (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.7%/yr); 84 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,256 units permitted in Mercer County in 2024 (1,303 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mercer County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $99k; list at $229k implies a 131% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1887 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $205,005 (10.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1887 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.50%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $228,084
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
234 Tyler St	0.30mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,400 (+2%)	4mo	$240,000	$171	75
814 Chestnut Ave	0.40mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,292 (-6%)	0mo	$265,000	$205	64
207 Jackson St	0.54mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,332 (-3%)	2mo	$305,000	$229	63
413 Monmouth St	0.60mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,404 (+2%)	1mo	$170,000	$121	62
57 Grand St	0.44mi	2/1.0	1,280 (-7%)	8mo	$138,000	$108	62
203 3rd St	0.48mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,248 (-9%)	1mo	$195,000	$156	56
150 Ashmore Ave	0.52mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,284 (-7%)	6mo	$250,000	$195	53
225 Franklin St	0.57mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,260 (-8%)	5mo	$111,347	$88	50
242 Centre St #1	0.40mi	2/2.0	1,173 (-15%)	3mo	$193,000	$165	50
515 Grand St	0.74mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,414 (+3%)	6mo	$290,000	$205	50
41 Hollywood Ave	0.46mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,180 (-14%)	2mo	$196,000	$166	48
508 Monmouth St	0.58mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,192 (-13%)	3mo	$160,000	$134	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.71% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-28,405
• Equity at exit: $34,145

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-2,891
• Equity at exit: $19,800

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08611

• Rents YoY: 4.7%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,050 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax from tax record: −$243 /mo · $2,916/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $80

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,948

Max offer price $229,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $210	-5% $145	+0% $80	+5% $15	+10% $-49
Rent	-10% $-82	-5% $-1	+0% $80	+5% $161	+10% $242
Rate	-1.0pp $196	-0.5pp $139	base $80	+0.5pp $21	+1.0pp $-39

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,250
• Closing costs: $6,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 35 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
71 Clark St Trenton, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	975	$2,350	$2.41	14d	4	0.13mi
203 Genesee St Unit 2 Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	1452	$1,700	$1.17	22d	1	0.26mi
176 Division St Apt 106 Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	975	$1,700	$1.74	22d	1	0.39mi
720 Monmouth St Unit 111 Trenton, NJ	1.0	1.0	1102	$1,500	$1.36	22d	1	0.48mi
720 Monmouth St Unit 204 Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	1011	$1,750	$1.73	22d	1	0.48mi
705 Anderson St Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1132	$1,800	$1.59	14d	1	0.59mi
105 Walnut Ave Unit 1 Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	1200	$2,000	$1.67	22d	1	0.63mi
547 Centre St Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1060	$1,850	$1.75	22d	1	0.64mi
313 Home Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1112	$2,100	$1.89	14d	1	0.65mi
121 Columbus Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,900	$1.81	22d	1	0.72mi
244 Jersey St Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.5	1368	$2,300	$1.68	14d	1	0.76mi
216 E State St Trenton, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0	811	$1,895	$2.34	14d	2	0.77mi
34 Southard St #2 Trenton, NJ	2.0	2.0	1808	$2,150	$1.19	22d	1	0.82mi
233 Virginia Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1302	$2,500	$1.92	13d	1	0.88mi
125 Olive St Trenton, NJ	2.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	896	$1,220	$1.36	22d	1	0.91mi
234 Howell St Trenton, NJ	3.0	3.0	1656	$3,600	$2.17	22d	1	0.92mi
1049 Genesee St Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1270	$2,300	$1.81	22d	1	0.96mi
417 Walnut Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	992	$2,050	$2.07	22d	1	0.99mi
1132 Genesee St Unit 1132 Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1198	$2,500	$2.09	22d	1	1.02mi
117 Park Ave Morrisville, PA	3.0	2.0	1396	$3,200	$2.29	13d	1	1.10mi
1078 Lalor St Unit 1 Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	1488	$1,895	$1.27	22d	1	1.13mi
1078 Lalor St Unit 2 Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	1488	$1,785	$1.20	22d	1	1.13mi
1165 E State St Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	900	$1,749	$1.94	14d	1	1.19mi
21 Bellevue Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	2.0	1740	$2,400	$1.38	44d	1	1.26mi
12 Belvidere St Trenton, NJ	1.0	1.0	1068	$1,600	$1.50	22d	1	1.26mi
8 Belvidere St Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	1260	$1,900	$1.51	22d	1	1.26mi
27 Passaic St Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	900	$1,700	$1.89	22d	1	1.32mi
973 S Olden Ave Unit 2ND FLOOR Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	1664	$1,850	$1.11	22d	1	1.33mi
130 N Pennsylvania Ave Morrisville, PA	1.0	1.0	1707	$1,500	$0.88	22d	1	1.34mi
27 E Palmer St Unit 6 Morrisville, PA	2.0	1.0	1100	$2,100	$1.91	14d	1	1.36mi
219 Woodlawn Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1456	$2,355	$1.62	14d	1	1.38mi
130 Harper Ave Morrisville, PA	3.0	2.5	1276	$3,500	$2.74	13d	1	1.42mi
77 Race St Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	950	$1,700	$1.79	22d	1	1.43mi
157 Robertson Ave Morrisville, PA	1.0	1.0	1553	$1,550	$1.00	44d	1	1.46mi
34 E Hendrickson Ave Morrisville, PA	3.0	1.0	1360	$2,650	$1.95	44d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,000 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,000 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,000 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,000 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $229,000 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $229,000 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,000 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $229,000 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $229,000 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,000 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,000 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,000 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,000 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $229,000 Active 24 DOM
15. 2026-05-07
    listed $229,000 Active
16. 2026-05-04
    historical $229,000
17. 2022-06-28
    historical
18. 2022-01-19
    listed $189,000 Active
19. 2008-05-28
    soldstatus $99,000
20. 2008-04-22
    soldstatus $99,000 4-char remark

    Show marketing remark (4 chars)

    None

21. 2008-01-30
    historical 4-char remark

    Show marketing remark (4 chars)

    None

22. 2008-01-18
    listed $99,900 4-char remark

    Show marketing remark (4 chars)

    None

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,916 · $243/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,309 · $359/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,393/yr (+$116/mo · 47.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,601
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,828
• − Property taxes: −$2,916
• − Insurance: −$1,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,968
• − Management: −$1,968
• − Depreciation: −$6,662
• Taxable loss: −$2,885
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$693
• After-tax cash flow: $1,656/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Trenton Public School District
• NCES district ID: 3416290
• Math proficiency: 2% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $35,078
• Composite: 7.31/100
• National rank: #9956
• State rank: #471 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Trenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #133
• US rank: #3533

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Trenton, NJ
• County: Mercer County · 327,655 people
• City population: 177,819
• Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 31,995
• Household income: $56,788
• Rent vs Own: 61.0% rent · 39.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2147.0

Population outlook (Mercer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,395 people
• By 2030: 384,640 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 391,431 · +2.6%
• By 2050: 397,845 · +4.3%
• By 2075: 417,281 · +9.4%
• By 2100: 420,327 · +10.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 62% Black 20% Two or more races 18% White 14% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 12% Dominican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Swiss 1% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 37% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 41% English-only · Spanish 57% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Mercer

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+33.9) · D 65.9% · R 32.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.2pp toward R · 2008: 36.1pp · 2024: 33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+33.9 2020: D+40.0 2016: D+36.2 2012: D+36.8 2008: D+36.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -267.62%
• Current HPI: 276.5427
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.71%
• Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+129.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Listed $229,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-04 Coming Soon $229,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-06-28 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-01-19 Listed $189,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2008-05-28 Sold (Public Records) $99,000 Public Records
• 2008-04-22 Sold (MLS) $99,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2008-01-30 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2008-01-18 Listed $99,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

-1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,916 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.