Caprock Plan · Josephine, TX 75135

$227,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,434 sqft · SingleFamily · 286 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the Caprock floorplan built at Riverfield in Josephine, TX! Experience the perfect fusion of comfort and functionality with this thoughtfully designed Express Series home floorplan. The custom, architecturally designed exterior, adorned with divided light windows and a front-facing garage with decorative hardware, presents a welcoming facade. A covered front porch leads to a raised panel fiberglass insulated door, offering a warm invitation inside. Upon entry, a spacious foyer seamlessly transitions into the home's inviting living spaces. The kitchen, a hub of activity, features 30" cabinets with hidden hinges, granite or quartz countertops, and stainless-steel appliances, ensuring both style and practicality. A built-in sink, dishwasher, and ample pantry space cater to everyday needs. The primary bedroom, a serene sanctuary, boasts an adjoining bathroom designed for effortless mornings. An elongated vanity with a sink and non-framed mirror, along with a walk-in shower and closet, provides ample space and comfort. Laminate wood plank flooring in the living areas and soft ½" carpet in the bedrooms create a cozy and comfortable atmosphere. This Express Series home is further enhanced by a user-friendly smart home system and an innovative tech package, offering modern convenience and seamless connectivity. PLUS enjoy energy efficient features such as Energy Star certified doors, windows, HVAC, insulation and more!

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• 30 inch cabinets
• Front facing garage

Tags

• DIVIDED LIGHT WINDOWS
• FRONT FACING GARAGE
• DECORATIVE HARDWARE
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• SPACIOUS FOYER
• 30 INCH CABINETS

🏗️ New construction. The $227,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $265,517.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $228k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-354 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $214k (6.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (17.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (17.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,076 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Leland E Edge Middle (math 25% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,662 statewide, top 65%, 931 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 36% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 369 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,289 units permitted in Hunt County in 2024 (527 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hunt County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 286 days — a 12% lower offer ($201k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $187,461 (17.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 286 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.71%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $265,517
• List price: $227,990
• Delta: -14.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
416 Rock Point Rd	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,478 (+3%)	1mo	$250,990	$170	68
1113 Southfield Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,434 (0%)	1mo	$224,990	$157	66
505 Lansdowne Dr	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,565 (+9%)	0mo	$259,645	$166	65
1116 Riverbrook Dr	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,565 (+9%)	2mo	$253,490	$162	64
1200 Riverbrook Ln	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,613 (+12%)	1mo	$253,490	$157	64
513 Barlow Dr	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,583 (+10%)	0mo	$257,490	$163	64
1160 Northfield Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,434 (0%)	2mo	$220,990	$154	63
705 Brook Ln	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,613 (+12%)	1mo	$258,495	$160	61
1308 Brook Ln	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,470 (+2%)	2mo	$222,990	$152	60
412 Rock Point Rd	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,294 (-10%)	2mo	$271,990	$210	55
1105 Southfield Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,280 (-11%)	1mo	$212,990	$166	48
1152 Northfield Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,280 (-11%)	1mo	$203,745	$159	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-65,542
• Equity at exit: $39,589

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.16×
• Total profit: $-85,989
• Equity at exit: $22,957

Cash invested: $74,345 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 25 active · 26 under contract
• Months of supply: 3.5 mo (29%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $268,795 ($178/sqft)
• Median days on market: 147 d
• This list price: 12% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +4.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75135

• Home prices YoY: -13.5%
• Active inventory: 369
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,875 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,392
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$332 /mo · $3,983/yr
• Insurance: −$111
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$394
• Net cashflow: $-354

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,323

Max offer price $214,295

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-170	-5% $-262	+0% $-354	+5% $-446	+10% $-537
Rent	-10% $-502	-5% $-428	+0% $-354	+5% $-280	+10% $-206
Rate	-1.0pp $-220	-0.5pp $-286	base $-354	+0.5pp $-423	+1.0pp $-493

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,379
• Closing costs: $7,965
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
305 Charmed Way Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$1,900	$1.28	2d	1	0.10mi
305 Charmed Way Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$2,000	$1.35	38d	1	0.10mi
304 Red Stream Way Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,800	$1.22	68d	1	0.17mi
217 Red Stream Way Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1480	$2,150	$1.45	23d	1	0.19mi
1216 Riverbrook Ln Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1617	$2,000	$1.24	46d	1	0.28mi
1216 Riverbrook Ln Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1617	$2,195	$1.36	43d	1	0.28mi
513 Barlow Dr Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	1583	$1,950	$1.23	7d	1	0.30mi
513 Barlow Dr Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	1583	$1,950	$1.23	0d	1	0.30mi
1116 Riverbrook Ln Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	1565	$1,900	$1.21	0d	1	0.30mi
505 Lansdowne Dr Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	1583	$1,795	$1.13	1d	1	0.32mi
505 Lansdowne Dr Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	1583	$1,795	$1.13	0d	1	0.32mi
1128 Southfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,700	$1.33	15d	1	0.68mi
1128 Southfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,700	$1.33	30d	1	0.68mi
1128 Southfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,700	$1.33	7d	1	0.68mi
1128 Southfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,700	$1.33	12d	1	0.68mi
1121 Southfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,700	$1.33	20d	1	0.70mi
1121 Southfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,700	$1.33	0d	1	0.70mi
1121 Southfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,700	$1.33	23d	1	0.70mi
1121 Southfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,700	$1.33	32d	1	0.70mi
1117 Southfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1153	$1,700	$1.47	0d	1	0.70mi
1117 Southfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1153	$1,700	$1.47	16d	1	0.70mi
1309 Brook LN Josephine, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,675	$1.31	0d	1	0.72mi
1164 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1156	$1,700	$1.47	59d	1	0.73mi
1164 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1156	$1,700	$1.47	50d	1	0.73mi
1144 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1156	$1,700	$1.47	50d	1	0.74mi
1144 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1156	$1,700	$1.47	59d	1	0.74mi
1177 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1156	$1,700	$1.47	93d	1	0.74mi
1165 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,595	$1.25	59d	1	0.75mi
1157 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1156	$1,700	$1.47	61d	1	0.75mi
1157 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1156	$1,700	$1.47	7d	1	0.75mi
1157 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1156	$1,700	$1.47	64d	1	0.75mi
1128 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1434	$1,775	$1.24	0d	1	0.75mi
1153 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	1572	$1,925	$1.22	0d	1	0.75mi
1153 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	1572	$1,925	$1.22	4d	1	0.75mi
1141 Northfield Dr Caddo Mills, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,725	$1.35	93d	1	0.76mi
1413 Brook Ln Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	1572	$1,925	$1.22	59d	1	0.79mi
1413 Brook Ln Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	1572	$1,925	$1.22	61d	1	0.79mi
808 Saddle Horn Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1870	$2,199	$1.18	0d	1	0.99mi
904 Saddle Horn Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1870	$1,995	$1.07	12d	1	1.04mi
904 Saddle Horn Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1870	$1,995	$1.07	7d	1	1.04mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $227,990 Active 286 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $227,990 Active 284 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $227,990 Active 283 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $227,990 Active 282 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $227,990 Active 281 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $227,990 Active 278 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $227,990 Active 276 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $227,990 Active 275 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $227,990 Active 273 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $227,990 Active 271 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $227,990 Active 270 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $227,990 Active 269 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $227,990 Active 268 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $227,990 Active 267 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $227,990 Active 265 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $227,990 Active 264 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $227,990 Active 263 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $227,990 Active 262 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $227,990 Active 261 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $227,990 Active 260 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $227,990 Active 259 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $227,990 Active 258 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $227,990 Active 257 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $227,990 Active 256 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $227,990 Active 254 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $227,990 Active 253 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $227,990 Active 252 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $227,990 Active 251 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $227,990 Active 250 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $227,990 Active 249 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $227,990 Active 248 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    price $227,990 Active 247 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $224,990 Active 247 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $224,990 Active 246 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $224,990 Active 245 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $224,990 Active 243 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $224,990 Active 241 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $224,990 Active 239 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $224,990 Active 238 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $224,990 Active 235 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $224,990 Active 234 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $224,990 Active 233 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $224,990 Active 232 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $224,990 Active 230 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $224,990 Active 229 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $224,990 Active 226 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $224,990 Active 225 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $224,990 Active 224 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $224,990 Active 221 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $224,990 Active 220 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,495
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,873
• − Property taxes: −$3,983
• − Insurance: −$1,328
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,800
• − Management: −$1,800
• − Depreciation: −$7,724
• Taxable loss: −$9,011
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,163
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,085/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a modern kitchen and well-maintained exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and landscaping improvements to further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 33/100

Zoned Schools

Middle Leland E Edge Middle F TX #1,056/1,662 Nat'l #8,861/14,009 High Community H S F TX #941/1,632 Nat'l #9,497/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 60/100

Livability — Josephine

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1076
• US rank: #19105

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hunt · 97,090 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,265
• Household income: $95,428
• Rent vs Own: 13.0% rent · 87.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 20% of renters

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Population outlook (Hunt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 97,090 people
• By 2030: 100,452 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 106,544 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 111,218 · +14.6%
• By 2075: 121,695 · +25.3%
• By 2100: 123,683 · +27.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% Korean 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hunt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.5) · D 21.9% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.9pp toward R · 2008: -40.6pp · 2024: -55.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.5 2020: R+52.5 2016: R+56.3 2012: R+51.2 2008: R+40.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.07%
• Current HPI: 275.2189
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $224,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $222,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $220,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-03 Price Changed $219,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-06 Price Changed $219,490 Zillow
• 2025-10-26 Listed $259,490 Zillow