616 Thayer St · Toledo, OH 43609

$48,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 989 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 211 Days on market

Built 1917 9,797 sqft lot $49/sqft · 11% above area Est $43k · 11% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.4/10.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• ARV discount +2.7/15.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great investment opportunity for those looking to take on a rehab project! This property offers strong potential for value-add improvements and is ideal for investors or buyers ready to bring their vision to life. With the right updates, this could be a fantastic addition to your portfolio or a profitable flip. Don't miss this opportunity to transform this property into something special!

Key facts

• Spacious yard
• Privacy fence
• Outdoor space

Tags

• SPACIOUS YARD
• PRIVACY FENCE
• OUTDOOR SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $48k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $365 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($859 rent vs $48k).
• Recommended offer: $42k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.4% vs local median 7.6% in Toledo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#645 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D-, crime F.
• Toledo City (urban): math 15% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #634 of 656 in OH (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.8%/yr); 99 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 53% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 415 units permitted in Lucas County in 2024 (122 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $692 of equity ($332 loan paydown + $360 appreciation (0.8% local appreciation)).
• Lucas County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (0.8% appreciation + 7.8% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 211 days — a 12% lower offer ($42k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $14k; list at $48k implies a 243% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1917 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $42,240 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 211 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1917 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.79% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.63%
• DSCR: 2.45
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $43,352
• List price: $48,000
• Delta: 10.72%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
910 Orchard St	0.02mi	2/1.0	888 (-10%)	10mo	$25,000	$28	73
678 Lorain St	0.35mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,006 (+2%)	7mo	$26,000	$26	70
1152 Colton St	0.43mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,046 (+6%)	1mo	$65,000	$62	65
710 Western Ave	0.56mi	2/1.0	1,028 (+4%)	8mo	$72,500	$71	61
517 Knower St	0.65mi	3/1.0 (+1)	966 (-2%)	1mo	$65,000	$67	60
616 Pleasant Pl	0.46mi	3/1.5 (+1)	941 (-5%)	6mo	$45,000	$48	58
1402 Prouty Ave	0.63mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,030 (+4%)	1mo	$50,000	$49	58
1127 Harding Dr	0.32mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,104 (+12%)	4mo	$22,000	$20	58
1335 Colburn St	0.58mi	3/1.0 (+1)	962 (-3%)	10mo	$22,500	$23	55
511 Congress St	0.39mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,109 (+12%)	6mo	$55,000	$50	51
1461 Ingomar Ave	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,008 (+2%)	7mo	$79,900	$79	48
1321 Gordon St	0.65mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,131 (+14%)	5mo	$70,600	$62	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.75% appreciation · 7.8% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.08×
• Total profit: $27,936
• Equity at exit: $15,763

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.6%
• Equity multiple: 7.12×
• Total profit: $82,310
• Equity at exit: $20,475

Cash invested: $13,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 43609

• Home prices YoY: 0.3%
• Rents YoY: 7.8%
• Active inventory: 99
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $859 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$252
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $496/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$180
• Net cashflow: $365

Break-even live

Break-even rent $396

Max offer price $48,000

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,000
• Closing costs: $1,440
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1037 Orchard St Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	696	$820	$1.18	21d	1	0.18mi
827 Colburn St Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	1092	$750	$0.69	44d	1	0.21mi
771 Orchard St Unit 7715 Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	1086	$645	$0.59	23d	1	0.22mi
223 Charles St Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	612	$875	$1.43	44d	1	0.61mi
1418 Colburn St Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	992	$1,200	$1.21	14d	1	0.65mi
1321 Gordon St Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1121	$1,050	$0.94	44d	1	0.65mi
416 Maumee Ave Unit D Toledo, OH	1.0	1.0	622	$475	$0.76	44d	1	0.71mi
705 Nicholas St Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	1037	$900	$0.87	44d	1	0.83mi
538 Nicholas St Unit B Toledo, OH	1.0	1.0	600	$600	$1.00	44d	1	0.86mi
1521 Emma St Unit LABS 1521 Emma St, B 43051619729 Toledo, OH	1.0	1.0	975	$900	$0.92	44d	1	0.90mi
244 Knower St Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1120	$995	$0.89	14d	1	0.91mi
2594 Broadway St Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	1076	$825	$0.77	44d	1	0.91mi
707 Toronto Ave Toledo, OH	1.0	1.0	750	$775	$1.03	23d	1	1.17mi
1734 Arlington Ave Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	700	$800	$1.14	14d	1	1.19mi
400 Nebraska Ave Toledo, OH	1.0	1.0	664	$1,129	$1.70	14d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $48,000 Active 211 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $48,000 Active 210 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $48,000 Active 209 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $48,000 Active 208 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $48,000 Active 206 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $48,000 Active 203 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $48,000 Active 202 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $48,000 Active 201 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $48,000 Active 200 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $48,000 Active 197 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $48,000 Active 196 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $48,000 Active 195 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $48,000 Active 194 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $48,000 Active 193 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $48,000 Active 192 DOM
16. 2025-11-19
    listed $48,000 Active 391-char remark

    Show marketing remark (391 chars)

    Great investment opportunity for those looking to take on a rehab project! This property offers strong potential for value-add improvements and is ideal for investors or buyers ready to bring their vision to life. With the right updates, this could be a fantastic addition to your portfolio or a profitable flip. Don't miss this opportunity to transform this property into something special!

17. 2025-11-17
    historical
18. 2025-09-30
    price $50,000
19. 2025-09-04
    status Active
20. 2025-04-08
    status Pending
21. 2025-03-03
    price $60,000
22. 2025-02-11
    listed $64,999 Active
23. 1994-07-05
    soldstatus $14,000
24. 1992-03-05
    soldstatus $17,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $496 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $622 · $52/mo
• Expected delta: +$126/yr (+$11/mo · 25.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,306
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,689
• − Property taxes: −$496
• − Insurance: −$240
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$824
• − Management: −$824
• − Depreciation: −$1,396
• Taxable income: $3,836
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$921
• After-tax cash flow: $3,464/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Toledo City
• NCES district ID: 3904490
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $32,137
• Composite: 15.76/100
• National rank: #9276
• State rank: #634 of 656 in OH

Livability — Toledo

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #645
• US rank: #11442

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Toledo, OH
• County: Lucas County · 380,724 people
• City population: 280,811
• Metro: Toledo, OH
• Population (ZIP): 21,404
• Household income: $42,313
• Rent vs Own: 55.7% rent · 44.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1603.0

Population outlook (Lucas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,751 people
• By 2030: 410,187 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 384,019 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 355,125 · -15.6%
• By 2075: 291,683 · -30.7%
• By 2100: 233,670 · -44.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Black 29% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lucas

• 2024 margin: D (+12.6) · D 55.8% · R 43.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.9pp toward R · 2008: 31.4pp · 2024: 12.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.6 2020: D+16.8 2016: D+17.4 2012: D+30.4 2008: D+31.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.75%
• Current HPI: 235.2515
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.80%
• Metro: Toledo, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+182.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-19 Listed $48,000 NORIS
• 2025-11-17 Listing Removed — NORIS
• 2025-09-30 Price Changed $50,000 NORIS
• 2025-09-04 Relisted — NORIS
• 2025-04-08 Pending — NORIS
• 2025-03-03 Price Changed $60,000 NORIS
• 2025-02-11 Listed $64,999 NORIS
• 1994-07-05 Sold (Public Records) $14,000 Public Records
• 1992-03-05 Sold (Public Records) $17,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $496 · +6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.