3202 21st Ave W · Bradenton, FL 34205

$327,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,458 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 78 Days on market

Built 1961 8,774 sqft lot Est $397k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 3 bedroom 2 bath home features an open floor plan and 1458 sq. ft. of living space. living room and bonus area. Step outside into the privacy of the fenced in backyard.

Key facts

• Ample natural light
• Sufficient workspace
• Driveway parking

Tags

• AMPLE NATURAL LIGHT
• FLEXIBLE LIVING SPACES
• SUFFICIENT WORKSPACE
• YARD SPACE
• DRIVEWAY PARKING
• ACCESS TO GULF BEACHES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exempt; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Pets allowed; No HOA association indicated

Exterior

• Parking: Circular driveway; 1-car carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected; Cable available; Phone available
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Faces south
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on a 0.2-acre lot (approx. 83 x 107 ft)
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Shed(s); Corner lot; Asphalt/paved public road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floorplan
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area (other); Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $327k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $515 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $323k (1.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $307k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 3.6% in Bradenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#101 in FL, #1,528 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime D, amenities F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Jessie P. Miller Elementary School (math 61% / reading 53%, grade C+, #781 of 2,144 statewide, top 38%, 614 students, 66% FRL); Manatee High School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #304 of 667 statewide, top 47%, 1,983 students, 59% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.4%/yr); 319 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,232/mo this rent would consume 74% of the median local household income ($53k/yr) (locally 1736% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($307k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $167k; list at $327k implies a 96% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→31/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $307,380 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.76%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $396,576
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3801 21st Ave W	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,436 (-2%)	3mo	$409,000	$285	76
3014 Southern Pkwy W	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,554 (+7%)	1mo	$409,000	$263	74
2405 21st Ave W	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,452 (-0%)	2mo	$237,000	$163	70
1410 35th St W	0.45mi	4/2.0	1,516 (+4%)	4mo	$475,000	$313	69
1411 29th St W	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,527 (+5%)	1mo	$369,000	$242	64
1111 38th St W	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,447 (-1%)	1mo	$389,000	$269	62
2502 15th Ave W	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,429 (-2%)	2mo	$455,000	$318	61
2806 Oxford Dr W	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,284 (-12%)	2mo	$349,000	$272	59
3218 Oxford Dr W	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,638 (+12%)	2mo	$300,000	$183	58
2904 Norwich Dr W	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,610 (+10%)	2mo	$439,000	$273	56
2702 38th St W	0.42mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,608 (+10%)	2mo	$440,000	$274	53
2202 21st St W	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,590 (+9%)	4mo	$400,000	$252	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-29,716
• Equity at exit: $48,757

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-20,564
• Equity at exit: $28,273

Cash invested: $91,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34205

• Rents YoY: -2.4%
• Active inventory: 319
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,232 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,715
• Tax from tax record: −$187 /mo · $2,243/yr
• Insurance: −$136
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$679
• Net cashflow: $515

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,580

Max offer price $327,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,750
• Closing costs: $9,810
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3109 22nd Ave W Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1509	$2,541	$1.68	11d	1	0.09mi
3301 19th Ave W Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.0	1750	$7,200	$4.11	23d	1	0.13mi
1503 32nd St W Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1148	$2,400	$2.09	23d	1	0.36mi
3807 16th Ave W Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1491	$2,100	$1.41	23d	1	0.45mi
1408 37th Street Ct W Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1188	$2,500	$2.10	3d	1	0.54mi
3806 Southern Pkwy W Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1296	$2,176	$1.68	11d	1	0.55mi
2916 24th St W Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1764	$1,800	$1.02	23d	1	0.69mi
2306 30th Ave W Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	945	$1,700	$1.80	23d	1	0.75mi
2004 20th Ave W Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,395	$1.45	23d	1	0.76mi
2001 25th Ave W Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1370	$3,000	$2.19	20d	1	0.81mi
1214 21st St W Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	1841	$4,300	$2.34	23d	1	0.86mi
3805 7th Ave W Bradenton, FL	3.0	1.0	1000	$2,200	$2.20	23d	1	0.93mi
4904 19th Ave W Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1762	$4,000	$2.27	14d	1	1.02mi
1505 18th Avenue Dr W Bradenton, FL	3.0	1.0	886	$1,875	$2.12	16d	1	1.06mi
5004 22nd Ave W Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1577	$2,500	$1.59	3d	1	1.07mi
1418 18th Avenue Dr W Unit 1418 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,900	$1.90	23d	1	1.15mi
520 22nd St W Unit 1071597P Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1582	$4,235	$2.68	2d	1	1.15mi
4607 7th Ave W Bradenton, FL	3.0	1.0	1296	$1,950	$1.50	23d	1	1.19mi
1319 18th Ave W Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1185	$1,795	$1.51	23d	1	1.19mi
4107 41st St W Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1419	$3,700	$2.61	23d	1	1.21mi
5111 13th Avenue Dr W Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1778	$3,700	$2.08	23d	1	1.24mi
3506 14th St W Bradenton, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	874	$1,950	$2.23	23d	5	1.26mi
1623 8th Ave W Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1650	$3,500	$2.12	1d	1	1.27mi
3401 50th St W Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1418	$2,699	$1.90	23d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $327,000 Active 78 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $327,000 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $327,000 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $327,000 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $327,000 Active 73 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $327,000 Active 72 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $327,000 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $327,000 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $327,000 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $327,000 Active 67 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $327,000 Active 63 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $327,000 Active 62 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $327,000 Active 61 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $327,000 Active 60 DOM
15. 2026-04-01
    listed $327,000 Active
16. 2025-10-08
    historical $2,200
17. 2025-09-23
    listed $2,200
18. 2019-10-01
    soldstatus $167,000
19. 2015-04-10
    soldstatus $116,500 Sold 173-char remark

    Show marketing remark (173 chars)

    This 3 bedroom 2 bath home features an open floor plan and 1458 sq. ft. of living space. living room and bonus area. Step outside into the privacy of the fenced in backyard.

20. 2015-01-21
    status Pending 173-char remark

    Show marketing remark (173 chars)

    This 3 bedroom 2 bath home features an open floor plan and 1458 sq. ft. of living space. living room and bonus area. Step outside into the privacy of the fenced in backyard.

21. 2015-01-06
    listed $119,900 Active 173-char remark

    Show marketing remark (173 chars)

    This 3 bedroom 2 bath home features an open floor plan and 1458 sq. ft. of living space. living room and bonus area. Step outside into the privacy of the fenced in backyard.

22. 2013-06-05
    soldstatus $92,099
23. 2013-05-23
    soldstatus $92,099 64-char remark

    Show marketing remark (64 chars)

    SHORT SALE. Pre-Approved list price by lender. Being SOLD AS-IS.

24. 2013-02-18
    listed $76,000 64-char remark

    Show marketing remark (64 chars)

    SHORT SALE. Pre-Approved list price by lender. Being SOLD AS-IS.

25. 2011-04-21
    historical
26. 2010-02-19
    listed $58,000
27. 2007-12-11
    soldstatus $147,000
28. 2007-12-11
    soldstatus $147,000
29. 2007-12-04
    soldstatus $147,000
30. 2007-10-23
    listed $149,900
31. 2007-10-18
    historical
32. 2007-10-11
    listed $149,900
33. 2007-10-09
    listed $159,900
34. 1988-05-31
    soldstatus $57,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,243 · $187/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,714 · $226/mo
• Expected delta: +$471/yr (+$39/mo · 21.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 31 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,787
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,317
• − Property taxes: −$2,243
• − Insurance: −$1,635
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,103
• − Management: −$3,103
• − Depreciation: −$9,513
• Taxable income: $873
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$210
• After-tax cash flow: $5,976/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bradenton

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #101
• US rank: #1528

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bradenton, FL
• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 227,091
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,946
• Household income: $52,525
• Rent vs Own: 40.3% rent · 59.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1736.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 18% Black 10% Two or more races 9% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 14% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -310.18%
• Current HPI: 369.8239
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.43%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+468.7% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Listed $327,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-08 Rental Removed $2,200 STELLARMLS
• 2025-09-23 Listed for Rent $2,200 STELLARMLS
• 2019-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $167,000 Public Records
• 2015-04-10 Sold (MLS) $116,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-01-21 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-01-06 Listed $119,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-06-05 Sold (Public Records) $92,099 Public Records
• 2013-05-23 Sold (MLS) $92,099 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-02-18 Listed $76,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-04-21 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-02-19 Listed $58,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-12-11 Sold (Public Records) $147,000 Public Records
• 2007-12-11 Sold (MLS) $147,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-12-04 Sold (MLS) $147,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-10-23 Listed $149,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-10-18 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-10-11 Listed $149,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-10-09 Listed $159,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1988-05-31 Sold (Public Records) $57,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,243 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.