2031 Gascony Parc Dr #2031 · Lake St. Louis, MO 63367

$100,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 915 sqft · Condo public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1970 $428/mo HOA · 22% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

It's about the lifestyle!! Don’t miss your chance to tour this fully updated, spacious two-bedroom Lake St. Louis condo that includes LAKE RIGHTS and access to the resort style living that Lake St Louis is famous for. Located in a small, well-maintained complex, this ground-level unit has been remodeled from top to bottom and is move-in ready. The exterior features brand-new decking, ample parking, and plenty of surrounding green space. You’re welcomed into a bright kitchen offering abundant cabinetry, quality appliances, new laminate countertops, eye-catching backsplash, and a comfortable dining area tucked into a separate alcove. The kitchen opens to a spacious living room sho

Key facts

• $428 HOA
• Parking
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA: Mystic Village; Monthly HOA fee (includes clubhouse, maintenance of parking/roads, pool, snow removal, trash); Community amenities: clubhouse, fishing, fitness center, golf, lake, pool, restaurant; suburban setting; 108 units in the community; Association management

Exterior

• Parking: 1 parking space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Electric service (other)
• Home design: Attached condominium; One story; Updated/remodeled condition
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Stainless steel appliances; ENERGY STAR qualified dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Laminate counters; Open floor plan
• Laundry & utility: In-unit laundry with washer hookup and electric dryer hookup; Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $415 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 3.2% in Lake St. Louis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Wentzville R-IV (suburban): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 324 in MO (top 10%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Lakeview Elementary (math 50% / reading 56%, grade C, #221 of 1,115 statewide, top 20%, 630 students, 12% FRL); Emil E. Holt Sr. High (math 48% / reading 58%, grade C-, #88 of 521 statewide, top 17%, 1,273 students, 12% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 230 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 2,021 units permitted in St. Charles County in 2024 (568 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Charles County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.2% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $100k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 22% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $97,000 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.95% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.77%
• DSCR: 1.79
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $12,907
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.02×
• Total profit: $56,582
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63367

• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 230
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,955 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$135 /mo · $1,625/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$428
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $415

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,430

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $471	-5% $443	+0% $415	+5% $386	+10% $358
Rent	-10% $260	-5% $337	+0% $415	+5% $492	+10% $569
Rate	-1.0pp $465	-0.5pp $440	base $415	+0.5pp $389	+1.0pp $362

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17 Warsen Ave Wentzville, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,875	$2.17	16d	1	1.04mi
1000 Centinnial Club DR O'Fallon, MO	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1309	$2,290	$1.75	0d	37	1.16mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $428 · $5,136/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $100,000 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $100,000 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $100,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $100,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100,000 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $100,000 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $100,000 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $100,000 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $100,000 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $100,000 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $100,000 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $100,000 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $100,000 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $100,000 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $100,000 Active 11 DOM
16. 2026-05-28
    status Active
17. 2026-05-28
    price $100,000
18. 2026-04-10
    listed $115,000 Active
19. 2026-04-10
    historical $115,000
20. 2025-11-03
    soldstatus $50,000
21. 2011-02-18
    soldstatus $61,000
22. 2004-05-25
    soldstatus $57,000
23. 2004-02-19
    soldstatus $31,000
24. 1995-01-01
    soldstatus $26,000
25. 1983-12-01
    soldstatus $38,600

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,625 · $135/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,625 · $135/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,454
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$1,625
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,876
• − Management: −$1,876
• − HOA: −$5,136
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $3,930
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$943
• After-tax cash flow: $4,032/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wentzville R-IV
• NCES district ID: 2931650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $74,961
• Composite: 43.49/100
• National rank: #2994
• State rank: #32 of 324 in MO

Livability — Lake St. Louis

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake St. Louis, MO
• County: Saint Charles County · 399,703 people
• City population: 27,893
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 29,725
• Household income: $137,648
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 184.0

Population outlook (St. Charles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,857 people
• By 2030: 461,707 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 503,222 · +14.9%
• By 2050: 534,684 · +22.1%
• By 2075: 597,047 · +36.4%
• By 2100: 609,682 · +39.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 6% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Charles

• 2024 margin: R (+17.0) · D 40.8% · R 57.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.2pp toward R · 2008: -9.7pp · 2024: -17.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.0 2020: R+17.5 2016: R+26.4 2012: R+21.0 2008: R+9.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -165.38%
• Current HPI: 208.2774
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.21%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+159.1% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $100,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-10 Listed $115,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-10 Coming Soon $115,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-03 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2011-02-18 Sold (Public Records) $61,000 Public Records
• 2004-05-25 Sold (Public Records) $57,000 Public Records
• 2004-02-19 Sold (Public Records) $31,000 Public Records
• 1995-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $26,000 Public Records
• 1983-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $38,600 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,625 · +15.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.