16415 Big Hickory Drive Dr · Grangerland, TX 77302

$254,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,730 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 62 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 4,856 sqft lot $147/sqft · at area comps Est $267k · at est. $73/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.8/30.0
• ARV discount +9.7/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

GORGEOUS home and PRICED TO SELL QUICKLY! Step into refined living at 16415 Big Hickory Drive, an impeccably maintained, nearly new home that blends modern elegance with thoughtful design! Built just 3 years ago, this stunning home offers all the benefits of new construction without the wait, and an awesome location and curb appeal!! Pristine finishes, upgrades features, and a move-in ready presentation!! This home has over $1000 in Smart-Home UPGRADES that can be conveniently controlled from cellphone Apps: Rachio Smart Sprinklers, upgraded Ring Security System, and MyQ Smart Garage Door! Open floorplan which flows beautifully into the designer kitchen with white cabinetry, beautiful countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a convenient island that is perfect for entertaining! The primary suite is a modern private retreat with board & batten accent wall and walk-in closet. UPGRADED lighting throughout! Check out the HUGE BACKYARD!

Key facts

• Designer kitchen
• Upgraded lighting
• New construction

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• SMART-HOME UPGRADES
• DESIGNER KITCHEN
• PRIMARY SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• UPGRADED LIGHTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $254k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-180 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $222k (12.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $243k (4.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $222k (12.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: San Jacinto El (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,921 of 4,322 statewide, top 45%, 547 students, 81% FRL); Moorhead J H (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 1,391 students, 82% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 34% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 39% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 1117 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($239k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $222,126 (12.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.92%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $267,347
• List price: $254,000
• Delta: -4.99%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14985 Rustic Moon Rd	0.44mi	4/2.0	1,689 (-2%)	1mo	$264,050	$156	73
16148 Sepia Manor St	0.38mi	4/2.5	1,850 (+7%)	1mo	$264,640	$143	70
14526 Rustic Birch Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,533 (-11%)	2mo	$235,000	$153	67
14960 Scarlet Branch Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,674 (-3%)	1mo	$295,000	$176	66
15996 Blass Valley Dr	0.66mi	4/2.0	1,777 (+3%)	0mo	$279,680	$157	63
15980 Blass Valley Dr	0.65mi	4/2.0	1,777 (+3%)	2mo	$274,790	$155	61
15019 Rustic Moon Rd	0.43mi	4/2.0	1,924 (+11%)	1mo	$314,860	$164	59
15985 Blass Valley Dr	0.70mi	4/2.5	1,850 (+7%)	2mo	$287,320	$155	54
15018 English Rose Rd	0.70mi	4/2.5	1,850 (+7%)	2mo	$276,730	$150	54
15039 Rustic Moon Rd	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,496 (-14%)	1mo	$259,790	$174	51
15023 Rustic Moon Rd	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,496 (-14%)	1mo	$287,340	$192	50
15385 Dapple Bluff Ln	0.61mi	4/2.0	1,937 (+12%)	1mo	$294,910	$152	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-51,667
• Equity at exit: $37,872

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-55,743
• Equity at exit: $21,961

Cash invested: $71,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77302

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 1117
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,430 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,332
• Tax from tax record: −$522 /mo · $6,270/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$73
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$510
• Net cashflow: $-180

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,658

Max offer price $222,126

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-37	-5% $-109	+0% $-180	+5% $-252	+10% $-324
Rent	-10% $-372	-5% $-276	+0% $-180	+5% $-84	+10% $12
Rate	-1.0pp $-53	-0.5pp $-116	base $-180	+0.5pp $-246	+1.0pp $-313

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,500
• Closing costs: $7,620
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16350 Many Trees Ln Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,500	$0.97	26d	1	0.66mi
16393 Many Trees Ln Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1540	$1,795	$1.17	45d	1	0.76mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $73 · $876/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $254,000 Pending 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $254,000 Pending 60 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $254,000 Pending 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $254,000 Pending 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $254,000 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $254,000 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $254,000 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $254,000 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $254,000 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $254,000 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-05-18
    price $254,000 954-char remark

    Show marketing remark (954 chars)

    GORGEOUS home and PRICED TO SELL QUICKLY! Step into refined living at 16415 Big Hickory Drive, an impeccably maintained, nearly new home that blends modern elegance with thoughtful design! Built just 3 years ago, this stunning home offers all the benefits of new construction without the wait, and an awesome location and curb appeal!! Pristine finishes, upgrades features, and a move-in ready presentation!! This home has over $1000 in Smart-Home UPGRADES that can be conveniently controlled from cellphone Apps: Rachio Smart Sprinklers, upgraded Ring Security System, and MyQ Smart Garage Door! Open floorplan which flows beautifully into the designer kitchen with white cabinetry, beautiful countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a convenient island that is perfect for entertaining! The primary suite is a modern private retreat with board & batten accent wall and walk-in closet. UPGRADED lighting throughout! Check out the HUGE BACKYARD!

12. 2026-04-27
    price $255,000 954-char remark

    Show marketing remark (954 chars)

    GORGEOUS home and PRICED TO SELL QUICKLY! Step into refined living at 16415 Big Hickory Drive, an impeccably maintained, nearly new home that blends modern elegance with thoughtful design! Built just 3 years ago, this stunning home offers all the benefits of new construction without the wait, and an awesome location and curb appeal!! Pristine finishes, upgrades features, and a move-in ready presentation!! This home has over $1000 in Smart-Home UPGRADES that can be conveniently controlled from cellphone Apps: Rachio Smart Sprinklers, upgraded Ring Security System, and MyQ Smart Garage Door! Open floorplan which flows beautifully into the designer kitchen with white cabinetry, beautiful countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a convenient island that is perfect for entertaining! The primary suite is a modern private retreat with board & batten accent wall and walk-in closet. UPGRADED lighting throughout! Check out the HUGE BACKYARD!

13. 2026-04-14
    listed $259,900 Active 954-char remark

    Show marketing remark (954 chars)

    GORGEOUS home and PRICED TO SELL QUICKLY! Step into refined living at 16415 Big Hickory Drive, an impeccably maintained, nearly new home that blends modern elegance with thoughtful design! Built just 3 years ago, this stunning home offers all the benefits of new construction without the wait, and an awesome location and curb appeal!! Pristine finishes, upgrades features, and a move-in ready presentation!! This home has over $1000 in Smart-Home UPGRADES that can be conveniently controlled from cellphone Apps: Rachio Smart Sprinklers, upgraded Ring Security System, and MyQ Smart Garage Door! Open floorplan which flows beautifully into the designer kitchen with white cabinetry, beautiful countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a convenient island that is perfect for entertaining! The primary suite is a modern private retreat with board & batten accent wall and walk-in closet. UPGRADED lighting throughout! Check out the HUGE BACKYARD!

14. 2026-04-13
    historical
15. 2026-03-25
    status Active
16. 2026-02-20
    status Pending
17. 2026-02-19
    status Pending
18. 2026-02-19
    status Pending
19. 2026-02-11
    status Pending
20. 2026-01-30
    price $264,900
21. 2026-01-21
    price $270,000
22. 2025-11-16
    price $272,000
23. 2025-10-31
    price $274,000
24. 2025-10-08
    listed $274,990 Active
25. 2022-12-29
    soldstatus Sold
26. 2022-11-15
    status Pending
27. 2022-10-05
    price $254,990
28. 2022-09-08
    price $259,760
29. 2022-09-01
    listed $262,760 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,270 · $522/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,270 · $522/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,155
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,228
• − Property taxes: −$6,270
• − Insurance: −$2,068
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,332
• − Management: −$2,332
• − HOA: −$876
• − Depreciation: −$7,389
• Taxable loss: −$6,340
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,522
• After-tax cash flow: $-643/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This nearly new home is move-in ready with modern finishes and smart home upgrades, making it an excellent investment.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Smart Home Upgrades — Enhances home's smart features and appeal
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Smart Home Upgrades — Enhances home's smart features and appeal ↑
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Grangerland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,546
• Household income: $84,673
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 205.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.56%
• Current HPI: 262.1879
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.3% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $254,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $255,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $259,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-25 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-02-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-02-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-02-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-02-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $264,900 HARMLS
• 2026-01-21 Price Changed $270,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-16 Price Changed $272,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-31 Price Changed $274,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-08 Listed $274,990 HARMLS
• 2022-12-29 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-11-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-10-05 Price Changed $254,990 HARMLS
• 2022-09-08 Price Changed $259,760 HARMLS
• 2022-09-01 Listed $262,760 HARMLS

Property tax history

+21.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,270 · +59.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.