251 Garden Cir · Hinesville, GA 31313

$175,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,174 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 85 Days on market

Built 1986 $149/sqft · at area comps Est $167k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• ARV discount +5.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Thinking about utilizing a renovation loan?? Consider this all brick home in the heart of Hinesville's shopping, dining, medical & entertainment with short commute to Fort Stewart at an affordable price! Upon entry you will find a a spacious living & dining area just off of the kitchen & breakfast area before the hallway leads you to the 2 bedrooms, hall bathroom and primary bedroom with en suite bath & walk-in closet. The backyard is fenced for your privacy & enjoyment & the storage shed provides additional storage for lawn care equipment. With some TLC you can create a cozy home or add to your investment portfolio.

Key facts

• Spacious living area
• Storage shed
• Brick home

Tags

• BRICK HOME
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA
• FENCED BACKYARD
• STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $83 ($995/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (1.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $164k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 5.2% in Hinesville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#51 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, commute D+, crime F.
• Liberty County (urban): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #133 of 174 in GA (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 639 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 471 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $82k; list at $175k implies a 112% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.03%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $167,479
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: 4.49%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
641 2nd St	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,100 (-6%)	11mo	$204,500	$186	75
236 Garden Cir	0.09mi	3/1.5	1,208 (+3%)	18mo	$199,900	$165	74
657 Maxwell St	0.25mi	3/1.5	1,260 (+7%)	1mo	$135,000	$107	73
248 Garden Cir	0.04mi	3/1.0	1,302 (+11%)	4mo	$214,500	$165	73
621 2nd St	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,100 (-6%)	12mo	$209,000	$190	70
213 Garden Cir	0.02mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,321 (+12%)	20mo	$225,000	$170	57
662 Mahoney Rd	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,196 (+2%)	11mo	$99,000	$83	57
221 Surrey Rd	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,248 (+6%)	22mo	$184,900	$148	45
905 Greenbriar Rd	0.67mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,300 (+11%)	9mo	$194,900	$150	34
921 Greenbriar Rd	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,066 (-9%)	18mo	$159,900	$150	32
478 Dykes St	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,008 (-14%)	20mo	$166,800	$165	27
938 Greenbriar Trl	0.75mi	3/1.0	1,000 (-15%)	11mo	$205,000	$205	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.41% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-18,718
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $9,273
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31313

• Home prices YoY: -27.1%
• Rents YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 639
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,727 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$291 /mo · $3,488/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $83

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,622

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $182	-5% $132	+0% $83	+5% $33	+10% $-16
Rent	-10% $-54	-5% $15	+0% $83	+5% $151	+10% $219
Rate	-1.0pp $171	-0.5pp $127	base $83	+0.5pp $38	+1.0pp $-9

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
250 Garden Cir Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.0	1140	$1,750	$1.54	45d	1	0.02mi
220 Garden Cir Hinesville, GA	3.0	1.5	1323	$1,650	$1.25	45d	1	0.06mi
727 S Main St Hinesville, GA	2.0–3.0	1.5	1286	$1,450	$1.13	45d	3	0.20mi
635 Maxwell St Hinesville, GA	3.0	1.0	950	$1,700	$1.79	45d	1	0.31mi
134 Pointe South Dr Hinesville, GA	2.0	1.0	840	$1,195	$1.42	45d	1	0.61mi
131 Pointe South Dr Hinesville, GA	2.0	1.0	960	$1,950	$2.03	45d	1	0.63mi
662 Mahoney Rd Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.0	1196	$1,795	$1.50	45d	1	0.67mi
814 Lesa St Hinesville, GA	2.0	1.5	1152	$950	$0.82	45d	1	0.79mi
910 Brett Dr Hinesville, GA	2.0–3.0	2.0	957	$1,600	$1.67	46d	3	0.85mi
910 Brett Dr Hinesville, GA	2.0–3.0	2.0	957	$1,600	$1.67	45d	4	0.85mi
732 Fleming Rd Hinesville, GA	3.0	1.5	1348	$1,400	$1.04	45d	1	0.93mi
108 Cherokee Cir Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.0	1208	$1,275	$1.06	45d	1	0.96mi
1012 White Cir Hinesville, GA	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,300	$1.24	45d	1	1.04mi
172 Cherokee Cir Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.0	1290	$1,550	$1.20	45d	1	1.04mi
710 Little John Dr Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.0	1459	$1,700	$1.17	45d	1	1.16mi
912 Pineland Ave Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.5	1428	$1,648	$1.15	45d	1	1.18mi
905 King Air Ct Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.0	1407	$1,750	$1.24	45d	1	1.19mi
205 Bagley Ave Unit B Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.0	1071	$1,850	$1.73	45d	1	1.21mi
916 Mandarin Dr Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.0	1433	$1,550	$1.08	45d	1	1.24mi
613 Franklin St Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.0	1464	$1,750	$1.20	45d	1	1.37mi
712 Mill Creek Cir Hinesville, GA	4.0	2.0	1456	$1,900	$1.30	45d	1	1.37mi
255 Glenn Bryant Rd Hinesville, GA	3.0	1.0	1075	$1,700	$1.58	45d	1	1.42mi
286 Whitetail Cir Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.0	1274	$1,600	$1.26	45d	1	1.43mi
1100 Pineland Ave Hinesville, GA	2.0	2.5	1412	$1,575	$1.12	45d	2	1.46mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $175,000 Active 85 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $175,000 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 79 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $175,000 Active 77 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 76 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $175,000 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $175,000 Active 73 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $175,000 Active 72 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $175,000 Active 71 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $175,000 Active 68 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 67 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 66 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 65 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 64 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $175,000 Active 63 DOM
19. 2026-03-29
    listed $189,000 Active 660-char remark

    Show marketing remark (660 chars)

    Thinking about utilizing a renovation loan?? Consider this all brick home in the heart of Hinesville's shopping, dining, medical & entertainment with short commute to Fort Stewart at an affordable price! Upon entry you will find a a spacious living & dining area just off of the kitchen & breakfast area before the hallway leads you to the 2 bedrooms, hall bathroom and primary bedroom with en suite bath & walk-in closet. The backyard is fenced for your privacy & enjoyment & the storage shed provides additional storage for lawn care equipment. With some TLC you can create a cozy home or add to your investment portfolio.

20. 2026-03-28
    listed $189,000 New 648-char remark

    Show marketing remark (648 chars)

    Thinking about utilizing a renovation loan?? Consider this all brick home in the heart of Hinesville's shopping, dining, medical & entertainment with short commute to Fort Stewart at an affordable price! Upon entry you will find a a spacious living & dining area just off of the kitchen & breakfast area before the hallway leads you to the 2 bedrooms, hall bathroom and primary bedroom with en suite bath & walk-in closet. The backyard is fenced for your privacy & enjoyment & the storage shed provides additional storage for lawn care equipment. With some TLC you can create a cozy home or add to your investment portfolio.

21. 2026-03-25
    historical
22. 2026-03-25
    historical
23. 2026-01-21
    price $199,000
24. 2026-01-21
    price $199,000
25. 2026-01-21
    price $199,000
26. 2025-10-25
    listed $211,000 New
27. 2025-10-25
    listed $211,000 Active
28. 2011-04-04
    soldstatus $82,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,488 · $291/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,488 · $291/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,723
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$3,488
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,658
• − Management: −$1,658
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$1,850
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$444
• After-tax cash flow: $1,439/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Liberty County
• NCES district ID: 1303300
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $43,911
• Composite: 20.2/100
• National rank: #8630
• State rank: #133 of 174 in GA

Livability — Hinesville

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #51
• US rank: #5200

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hinesville, GA
• County: Liberty County · 58,565 people
• City population: 42,838
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• Population (ZIP): 42,838
• Household income: $60,233
• Rent vs Own: 50.1% rent · 49.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1693.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,689 people
• By 2030: 57,670 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 55,750 · -5.0%
• By 2050: 54,155 · -7.7%
• By 2075: 58,947 · +0.4%
• By 2100: 66,919 · +14.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 47% White 31% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: D (+17.4) · D 58.5% · R 41.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.9pp toward R · 2008: 28.4pp · 2024: 17.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.4 2020: D+24.1 2016: D+21.2 2012: D+30.2 2008: D+28.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.50%
• Current HPI: 208.0927
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.41%
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+129.1% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-29 Listed $189,000 HABR
• 2026-03-28 Listed $189,000 GAMLS
• 2026-03-25 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2026-03-25 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2026-01-21 Price Changed $199,000 Hive MLS
• 2026-01-21 Price Changed $199,000 HABR
• 2026-01-21 Price Changed $199,000 GAMLS
• 2025-10-25 Listed $211,000 Hive MLS
• 2025-10-25 Listed $211,000 GAMLS
• 2011-04-04 Sold (Public Records) $82,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,488 · +24.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.