2016 Gavin Rd · Tool, TX 75143

$110,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 930 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 114 Days on market

Built 1968 0.46 ac lot $118/sqft · 58% below area $33/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.2/30.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 2016 Gavin Rd in Kemp, TX 75143 — a great opportunity to own a home with space, character, and room to make it your own. Nestled in a quiet area just minutes from Cedar Creek Lake, this property offers a private water well giving you the best combo of country living and convenience. Inside, you’ll find a functional layout with comfortable living spaces, ample natural light, and solid bones throughout. Several areas of the home are unfinished, giving buyers the rare chance to add their own personal style and finishing touches. Whether you’ve been looking to customize flooring, trim, paint, or final details, this home provides a head start while still allowing you to create the exact look and feel you want. The kitchen and living areas offer an inviting space for everyday living or entertaining, while the bedrooms provide flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. Outside, the property features plenty of room to enjoy the outdoors — ideal for relaxing evenings, gatherings, or future improvements. If you’re looking for a home with potential, personality, and the ability to build equity through your own updates, 2016 Gavin Rd is a fantastic opportunity. Bring your vision and make it your own.

Key facts

• Ample natural light
• Functional layout
• Unfinished areas

Tags

• MINUTES FROM CEDAR CREEK LAKE
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• AMPLE NATURAL LIGHT
• UNFINISHED AREAS
• CUSTOMIZE FLOORING
• PLENTY OF ROOM OUTDOORS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $316 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $100k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 2.8% in Tool — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#651 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Malakoff ISD (town): math 48% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #187 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 440 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($100k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $100,100 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.33%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $333,375
• List price: $110,000
• Delta: -67.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2001 Gavin Rd	0.09mi	2/1.0	871 (-6%)	20mo	$220,000	$253	69

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $2,338
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.91×
• Total profit: $28,039
• Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75143

• Home prices YoY: -11.4%
• Active inventory: 440
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,350 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$94 /mo · $1,133/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $316

Break-even live

Break-even rent $950

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1933 Island Cir Unit B106 Tool, TX	1.0	1.0	719	$1,350	$1.88	43d	1	0.93mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $110,000 Active 114 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,000 Active 113 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $110,000 Active 112 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 111 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 110 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $110,000 Active 108 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $110,000 Active 107 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $110,000 Active 104 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $110,000 Active 103 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $110,000 Active 102 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 97 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 96 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 95 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $125,000 Active 94 DOM
15. 2026-05-01
    price $125,000 1265-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1255 chars)

    Welcome to 2016 Gavin Rd in Kemp, TX 75143 — a great opportunity to own a home with space, character, and room to make it your own. Nestled in a quiet area just minutes from Cedar Creek Lake, this property offers a private water well giving you the best combo of country living and convenience. Inside, you’ll find a functional layout with comfortable living spaces, ample natural light, and solid bones throughout. Several areas of the home are unfinished, giving buyers the rare chance to add their own personal style and finishing touches. Whether you’ve been looking to customize flooring, trim, paint, or final details, this home provides a head start while still allowing you to create the exact look and feel you want. The kitchen and living areas offer an inviting space for everyday living or entertaining, while the bedrooms provide flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. Outside, the property features plenty of room to enjoy the outdoors — ideal for relaxing evenings, gatherings, or future improvements. If you’re looking for a home with potential, personality, and the ability to build equity through your own updates, 2016 Gavin Rd is a fantastic opportunity. Bring your vision and make it your own.

16. 2026-05-01
    price $125,000 1255-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1255 chars)

    Welcome to 2016 Gavin Rd in Kemp, TX 75143 — a great opportunity to own a home with space, character, and room to make it your own. Nestled in a quiet area just minutes from Cedar Creek Lake, this property offers a private water well giving you the best combo of country living and convenience. Inside, you’ll find a functional layout with comfortable living spaces, ample natural light, and solid bones throughout. Several areas of the home are unfinished, giving buyers the rare chance to add their own personal style and finishing touches. Whether you’ve been looking to customize flooring, trim, paint, or final details, this home provides a head start while still allowing you to create the exact look and feel you want. The kitchen and living areas offer an inviting space for everyday living or entertaining, while the bedrooms provide flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. Outside, the property features plenty of room to enjoy the outdoors — ideal for relaxing evenings, gatherings, or future improvements. If you’re looking for a home with potential, personality, and the ability to build equity through your own updates, 2016 Gavin Rd is a fantastic opportunity. Bring your vision and make it your own.

17. 2026-03-30
    price $135,000 1265-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1255 chars)

    Welcome to 2016 Gavin Rd in Kemp, TX 75143 — a great opportunity to own a home with space, character, and room to make it your own. Nestled in a quiet area just minutes from Cedar Creek Lake, this property offers a private water well giving you the best combo of country living and convenience. Inside, you’ll find a functional layout with comfortable living spaces, ample natural light, and solid bones throughout. Several areas of the home are unfinished, giving buyers the rare chance to add their own personal style and finishing touches. Whether you’ve been looking to customize flooring, trim, paint, or final details, this home provides a head start while still allowing you to create the exact look and feel you want. The kitchen and living areas offer an inviting space for everyday living or entertaining, while the bedrooms provide flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. Outside, the property features plenty of room to enjoy the outdoors — ideal for relaxing evenings, gatherings, or future improvements. If you’re looking for a home with potential, personality, and the ability to build equity through your own updates, 2016 Gavin Rd is a fantastic opportunity. Bring your vision and make it your own.

18. 2026-03-30
    price $135,000 1255-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1255 chars)

    Welcome to 2016 Gavin Rd in Kemp, TX 75143 — a great opportunity to own a home with space, character, and room to make it your own. Nestled in a quiet area just minutes from Cedar Creek Lake, this property offers a private water well giving you the best combo of country living and convenience. Inside, you’ll find a functional layout with comfortable living spaces, ample natural light, and solid bones throughout. Several areas of the home are unfinished, giving buyers the rare chance to add their own personal style and finishing touches. Whether you’ve been looking to customize flooring, trim, paint, or final details, this home provides a head start while still allowing you to create the exact look and feel you want. The kitchen and living areas offer an inviting space for everyday living or entertaining, while the bedrooms provide flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. Outside, the property features plenty of room to enjoy the outdoors — ideal for relaxing evenings, gatherings, or future improvements. If you’re looking for a home with potential, personality, and the ability to build equity through your own updates, 2016 Gavin Rd is a fantastic opportunity. Bring your vision and make it your own.

19. 2026-02-25
    listed $140,000 Active 1255-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1265 chars)

    Welcome to 2016 Gavin Rd in Kemp, TX 75143 — a great opportunity to own a home with space, character, and room to make it your own. Nestled in a quiet area just minutes from Cedar Creek Lake, this property offers a private water well giving you the best combo of country living and convenience. Inside, you’ll find a functional layout with comfortable living spaces, ample natural light, and solid bones throughout. Several areas of the home are unfinished, giving buyers the rare chance to add their own personal style and finishing touches. Whether you’ve been looking to customize flooring, trim, paint, or final details, this home provides a head start while still allowing you to create the exact look and feel you want. The kitchen and living areas offer an inviting space for everyday living or entertaining, while the bedrooms provide flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. Outside, the property features plenty of room to enjoy the outdoors — ideal for relaxing evenings, gatherings, or future improvements. If you’re looking for a home with potential, personality, and the ability to build equity through your own updates, 2016 Gavin Rd is a fantastic opportunity. Bring your vision and make it your own.

20. 2026-02-25
    listed $140,000 Active 1265-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1265 chars)

    Welcome to 2016 Gavin Rd in Kemp, TX 75143 — a great opportunity to own a home with space, character, and room to make it your own. Nestled in a quiet area just minutes from Cedar Creek Lake, this property offers a private water well giving you the best combo of country living and convenience. Inside, you’ll find a functional layout with comfortable living spaces, ample natural light, and solid bones throughout. Several areas of the home are unfinished, giving buyers the rare chance to add their own personal style and finishing touches. Whether you’ve been looking to customize flooring, trim, paint, or final details, this home provides a head start while still allowing you to create the exact look and feel you want. The kitchen and living areas offer an inviting space for everyday living or entertaining, while the bedrooms provide flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. Outside, the property features plenty of room to enjoy the outdoors — ideal for relaxing evenings, gatherings, or future improvements. If you’re looking for a home with potential, personality, and the ability to build equity through your own updates, 2016 Gavin Rd is a fantastic opportunity. Bring your vision and make it your own.

21. 2003-07-21
    soldstatus
22. 1997-07-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,133 · $94/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,013 · $168/mo
• Expected delta: +$880/yr (+$73/mo · 77.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 65% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$1,133
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,296
• − Management: −$1,296
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $2,167
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$520
• After-tax cash flow: $3,276/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Malakoff ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828780
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,970
• Composite: 42.54/100
• National rank: #3200
• State rank: #187 of 826 in TX

Livability — Tool

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #651
• US rank: #12292

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 14,676

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 8% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.99%
• Current HPI: 332.57
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $125,000 NTREIS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $125,000 GTAR
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $135,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $135,000 GTAR
• 2026-02-25 Listed $140,000 GTAR
• 2026-02-25 Listed $140,000 NTREIS
• 2003-07-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1997-07-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,133 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.