3053 Lawsonia Rd · Crisfield, MD 21817

$40,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1900 8,832 sqft lot Est $80k · 50% under ↓ 43% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A great opportunity to rehab or take it down and build. Public sewer. Priced for the land. Bring your best offer Seller is motivated!

Key facts

• 8,832 sq ft lot
• Built 1900
• Listed 20 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed with no pet restrictions
• HOA & community: Ground rent paid annually

Exterior

• Parking: Parking lot
• Utilities: Electric heating fuel; Electric hot water; Public sewer; Public water and well
• Home design: Detached property; Fee simple ownership; Major rehab needed
• Construction: Built with mixed stick-built construction; Asbestos present in construction materials; Asbestos shingle roof (unknown in some records); Block and brick/mortar foundation
• Exterior features: Level lot; Rural setting; Corner lot; Above- and below-grade structures noted; Located in FEMA flood zone AE

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Stove
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Hardwood flooring; Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main level; 1 full bathroom total
• Interior features: Attic; Family room off the kitchen; Master bath(s); Kitchen with table space

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $107 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.3% vs local median 1.5% in Crisfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#199 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Somerset County Public Schools (town): math 12% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #22 of 24 in MD (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 49 units permitted in Somerset County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($277 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Somerset County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $12k; list at $40k implies a 220% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $39,400 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 57.15%
• DSCR: 3.54
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $79,800
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3053 Lawsonia Rd	0.00mi	2/1.0	1,064 (0%)	13mo	$12,500	$12	89
2990 Byrdtown Rd	0.14mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,000 (-6%)	6mo	$119,000	$119	73
2902 Byrdtown Rd	0.32mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,072 (+1%)	14mo	$80,000	$75	67
2800 Calvary Rd	0.70mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,048 (-2%)	1mo	$10,000	$10	60
3343 Lawsonia Rd	0.59mi	2/2.0	1,205 (+13%)	16mo	$137,000	$114	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.58×
• Total profit: $28,868
• Equity at exit: $36,035

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.6%
• Equity multiple: 8.16×
• Total profit: $80,211
• Equity at exit: $77,711

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21817

• Home prices YoY: 7.3%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,025 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $597/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$215
• Net cashflow: $107

Break-even live

Break-even rent $890

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $40,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $40,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $40,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $40,000 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $40,000 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $40,000 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $40,000 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $40,000 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $40,000 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $40,000 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $40,000 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $40,000 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $40,000 Active 2 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    remarks 323-char remark
15. 2026-05-30
    listed $40,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $597 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $597 · $50/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,297
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$597
• − Insurance: −$5,318
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$984
• − Management: −$984
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $1,010
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$242
• After-tax cash flow: $1,040/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Somerset County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400570
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $38,810
• Composite: 14.73/100
• National rank: #9396
• State rank: #22 of 24 in MD

Livability — Crisfield

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #199
• US rank: #9181

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,102

Population outlook (Somerset County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,474 people
• By 2030: 23,547 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 21,498 · -12.2%
• By 2050: 20,427 · -16.5%
• By 2075: 16,594 · -32.2%
• By 2100: 12,132 · -50.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 20% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Serbian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Somerset

• 2024 margin: R (+17.4) · D 40.2% · R 57.5% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.8pp toward R · 2008: -2.6pp · 2024: -17.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.4 2020: R+14.8 2016: R+17.9 2012: R+2.5 2008: R+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.92%
• Current HPI: 292.866
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

-42.8% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Listed $40,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-05-19 Sold (MLS) $12,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-05-14 Price Changed $12,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-05-14 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-04-30 Price Changed $16,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-04-30 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-04-23 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-04-18 Price Changed $22,950 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-02-03 Price Changed $35,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-12-22 Listed $50,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-03-13 Sold (MLS) $6,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-02-09 Listed $7,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2004-11-18 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2004-08-13 Listed $69,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $597 · +13.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.