43 Road 3494 · Flora Vista, NM 87415

$145,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,413 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1993 0.75 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.5/30.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

INVESTOR SPECIAL - Site Built Home in nice area of Flora Vista, NM on 3/4 acre lot. 3BR / 2BA (1413 sq ft ) with converted garage. Community Water, Natural Gas, Septic. significant renovations needed but this property has great potential. Completely fenced lot, storage shed on property. Kitchen appliances and washer / dryer do not convey. Seller will not pay for any inspections including septic or pest inspection. Property is being sold ''as-is'', ''where is'' SELLER WILL NOT MAKE ANY REPAIRS TO THE HOME OR PROPERTY. CASH SALE ONLY! Please call for more information.

Key facts

• 3/4 acre lot
• Septic
• Converted garage

Tags

• 3/4 ACRE LOT
• CONVERTED GARAGE
• COMMUNITY WATER
• NATURAL GAS
• SEPTIC
• COMPLETELY FENCED LOT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Natural gas available; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family house; One story
• Construction: Wood siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Front porch; Storage structure on the property; Chain link and wood fencing

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced-air heating; Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $337 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#221 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Aztec Municipal Schools (town): math 18% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #12 of 29 in NM (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 78 units permitted in San Juan County in 2024 (8 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Juan County population projected at -51% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $145,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.95%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-2,088
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.63×
• Total profit: $25,657
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 87415

• Home prices YoY: -15.0%
• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,577 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$89 /mo · $1,065/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $337

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,151

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-15
   listed $145,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,065 · $89/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,160 · $97/mo
• Expected delta: +$95/yr (+$8/mo · 8.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,930
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$1,065
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,514
• − Management: −$1,514
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $1,771
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$425
• After-tax cash flow: $3,615/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aztec Municipal Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500150
• Math proficiency: 18% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▲ 33.00%
• Median HH income: $50,522
• Composite: 33.95/100
• National rank: #5328
• State rank: #12 of 29 in NM

Livability — Flora Vista

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #221
• US rank: #23714

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D- Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Flora Vista, NM
• Population (ZIP): 2,277

Population outlook (San Juan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 95,201 people
• By 2030: 84,154 · -11.6%
• By 2040: 63,810 · -33.0%
• By 2050: 46,929 · -50.7%
• By 2075: 21,097 · -77.8%
• By 2100: 9,410 · -90.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 19% Native American 7% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Slovak 4% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 12%

Political lean MEDSL · San Juan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.7) · D 33.0% · R 64.7% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -21.2pp · 2024: -31.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.7 2020: R+28.3 2016: R+33.1 2012: R+28.5 2008: R+21.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -30.21%
• Current HPI: 171.4287
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — SJCMLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $145,000 SJCMLS

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,065 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.