20683 Waalew Rd · Apple Valley, CA 92307

$145,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 217 sqft · Land public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1977

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.0/30.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Home is located in Los Ranchos Mobile Home Park. Welcome home to this beautifully maintained, move-in ready 2-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home offering approximately 1,400 sq. ft. of thoughtfully designed living space. From the low-maintenance landscaped exterior to the stylishly upgraded interior, this home checks all the boxes. Step inside to an open, airy floor plan that & acirc; & euro; & trade; s perfect for entertaining or simply enjoying everyday comfort. The living room features a cozy electric fireplace, while the dining area includes a charming built-in china cabinet. The kitchen is a true highlight with granite countertops, an in-island Zline microwave, Samsung stain

Key facts

• Open airy floor plan
• Zline microwave
• Granite countertops

Tags

• OPEN AIRY FLOOR PLAN
• COZY ELECTRIC FIREPLACE
• BUILT IN CHINA CABINET
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• ZLINE MICROWAVE
• SLIDE IN GAS CONVECTION RANGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $285 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $143k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 3.5% in Apple Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#532 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, commute B+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime D-.
• Apple Valley Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #955 of 1,400 in CA (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 538 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.5% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($143k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 15 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 1→2/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $142,825 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.43%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-1,149
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.00×
• Total profit: $40,466
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92307

• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 538
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,629 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$181 /mo · $2,175/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $285

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,268

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $385	-5% $335	+0% $285	+5% $235	+10% $185
Rent	-10% $156	-5% $221	+0% $285	+5% $349	+10% $414
Rate	-1.0pp $358	-0.5pp $322	base $285	+0.5pp $248	+1.0pp $209

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21225 Wigwam Rd Unit 2 Apple Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	934	$1,200	$1.28	44d	1	1.02mi
15866 Sago Rd Apple Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	996	$1,750	$1.76	25d	1	1.12mi
15728 Sago Rd Unit 1 Apple Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	950	$1,600	$1.68	25d	1	1.26mi
20414 Zuni Rd Unit 1 Apple Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,700	$1.36	44d	1	1.30mi
20316 Rimrock Rd E Unit 3 Apple Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	816	$1,450	$1.78	44d	1	1.40mi
20130 Rimrock Rd E Apt B Apple Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,300	$1.73	21d	1	1.44mi
20236 Pawhuska Rd Unit 4 Apple Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	870	$1,400	$1.61	44d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $145,000 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,000 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $145,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $145,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $145,000 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $145,000 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,000 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,000 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 5 DOM
16. 2026-05-26
    listed $145,000 Active
17. 2026-03-19
    historical
18. 2026-02-02
    price $55,000
19. 2025-12-31
    historical
20. 2025-12-18
    listed $59,900 Active
21. 2025-09-18
    soldstatus $130,600 Closed Sale
22. 2025-08-14
    status Pending Sale
23. 2025-07-22
    historical Active Under Contract
24. 2025-07-17
    historical
25. 2025-06-18
    listed $130,000 Active
26. 2025-06-13
    price $100,000
27. 2025-06-04
    status Active
28. 2025-05-05
    listed Active Under Contract
29. 2025-04-02
    historical Active Under Contract
30. 2025-03-17
    listed $105,000 Active
31. 2025-03-13
    status Pending Sale
32. 2025-03-08
    historical
33. 2025-02-28
    historical Active Under Contract
34. 2025-01-17
    status Pending Sale
35. 2024-11-11
    status Active
36. 2024-10-12
    status Pending Sale
37. 2024-09-06
    listed $135,000 Active
38. 2023-07-03
    historical
39. 2023-04-11
    price $110,000
40. 2023-03-29
    soldstatus $40,000 Closed
41. 2023-03-04
    status Pending
42. 2023-02-18
    listed $40,000 Active
43. 2023-02-06
    listed $120,000 Active
44. 2022-09-01
    soldstatus $100,000 Closed Sale
45. 2022-08-30
    status Pending Sale
46. 2022-08-30
    listed $100,000 Active
47. 2020-11-05
    soldstatus $18,000 Closed Sale
48. 2020-10-19
    status Pending Sale
49. 2020-10-12
    listed $12,000 Active
50. 2020-10-06
    historical $12,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 1 d/yr ≥100°F today · 2 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 21 unhealthy d/yr today · 26 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,551
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$2,175
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,564
• − Management: −$1,564
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $1,183
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$284
• After-tax cash flow: $3,137/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Apple Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600017
• Math proficiency: 25% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $49,264
• Composite: 30.91/100
• National rank: #11351
• State rank: #955 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Apple Valley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #532
• US rank: #17800

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living F Crime D- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apple Valley, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 83,889
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 41,180
• Household income: $77,106
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1069.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 22% Black 5% Asian 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 20% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -262.21%
• Current HPI: 347.8498
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.48%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+1350.0% since first listed

56 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $145,000 FSBO.com
• 2026-03-19 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2026-02-02 Price Changed $55,000 CRMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-12-18 Listed $59,900 CRMLS
• 2025-09-18 Sold (MLS) $130,600 CRMLS
• 2025-08-14 Pending — CRMLS
• 2025-07-22 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2025-07-17 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-06-18 Listed $130,000 CRMLS
• 2025-06-13 Price Changed $100,000 CRMLS
• 2025-06-04 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2025-05-05 Listed — CRMLS
• 2025-04-02 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2025-03-17 Listed $105,000 CRMLS
• 2025-03-13 Pending — CRMLS
• 2025-03-08 Coming Soon — CRMLS
• 2025-02-28 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2025-01-17 Pending — CRMLS
• 2024-11-11 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2024-10-12 Pending — CRMLS
• 2024-09-06 Listed $135,000 CRMLS
• 2023-07-03 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2023-04-11 Price Changed $110,000 CRMLS
• 2023-03-29 Sold (MLS) $40,000 GPSMLS
• 2023-03-04 Pending — GPSMLS
• 2023-02-18 Listed $40,000 GPSMLS
• 2023-02-06 Listed $120,000 CRMLS
• 2022-09-01 Sold (MLS) $100,000 CRMLS
• 2022-08-30 Pending — CRMLS
• 2022-08-30 Listed $100,000 CRMLS
• 2020-11-05 Sold (MLS) $18,000 CRMLS
• 2020-10-19 Pending — CRMLS
• 2020-10-12 Listed $12,000 CRMLS
• 2020-10-06 Coming Soon $12,000 CRMLS
• 2019-06-18 Sold (MLS) $37,000 CRMLS
• 2019-03-26 Listed $37,000 CRMLS
• 2011-10-27 Sold (Public Records) $5,398,500 Public Records
• 2007-08-29 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2007-08-26 Price Changed $34,000 CRMLS
• 2007-07-24 Listed $39,500 CRMLS
• 2007-06-28 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2007-05-31 Listed $54,000 CRMLS
• 2006-01-12 Sold (MLS) $77,000 CRMLS
• 2005-11-29 Sold (MLS) $93,500 CRMLS
• 2005-04-05 Sold (MLS) $26,000 CRMLS
• 2004-07-02 Sold (MLS) $18,900 CRMLS
• 2002-11-27 Sold (MLS) $26,000 CRMLS
• 2001-11-07 Sold (MLS) $26,000 CRMLS
• 2001-09-25 Sold (MLS) $11,000 CRMLS
• 2000-08-07 Sold (MLS) $14,500 CRMLS
• 2000-07-18 Sold (MLS) $20,000 CRMLS
• 2000-05-12 Sold (MLS) $21,000 CRMLS
• 1999-12-30 Sold (MLS) $18,000 CRMLS
• 1999-09-02 Sold (MLS) $22,000 CRMLS
• 1999-08-16 Sold (MLS) $10,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+40.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $75,197 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.