219 Blue Jay Dr · Red Lion, PA 17356

$184,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,078 sqft · Land public records · 16 Days on market

Built 2025

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Red Lion and Crestview Acres! Current Lot rent is $545 per month plus water, and includes sewer and trash services. This beautiful new 28x55 Pine Grove Homes home features 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, offering modern comfort and spacious living. All stainless steel appliances and recessed lighting. Door forget about the beautiful covered front porch. This is great one floor living in a brand new home! Come take a look and see all it has to offer.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Recessed lighting
• Built 2025

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• RECESSED LIGHTING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: 2+ access exits; Irrigation water rights; Ownership interest: ground rent; Above-grade finished area reported by assessor
• Financial info: Ground rent exists and is paid monthly ($545)
• HOA & community: Association fees (if any) may include sewer, snow removal, and trash

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric available; Propane available; Sewer available; Water available
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide (Pine Grove model); Construction completed; Excellent condition
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Building not winterized
• Exterior features: Exterior lighting; Porch(es) with roof; Rented lot (ground rent exists)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stove; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Laminated
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms on the main level; 2 full bathrooms total
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning (electric); Electric hot water
• Interior features: Open floor plan; Kitchen island; Recessed lighting; Paneled walls; Not furnished
• Laundry & utility: Main-floor laundry hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $184k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $221 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $184k).
• Recommended offer: $182k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 4.5% in Red Lion — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#349 in PA, #3,056 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, commute F.
• Red Lion Area SD (suburban): math 36% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #282 of 539 in PA (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 147 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,328 units permitted in York County in 2024 (338 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $181,732 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.14%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-15,780
• Equity at exit: $27,510

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $4,516
• Equity at exit: $15,952

Cash invested: $51,660 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17356

• Home prices YoY: -21.0%
• Active inventory: 147
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,894 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$968
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$231 /mo · $2,768/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $221

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,614

Max offer price $184,500

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $349	-5% $285	+0% $221	+5% $157	+10% $94
Rent	-10% $72	-5% $146	+0% $221	+5% $296	+10% $371
Rate	-1.0pp $314	-0.5pp $268	base $221	+0.5pp $173	+1.0pp $125

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,125
• Closing costs: $5,535
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21 Windsor Way Red Lion, PA	3.0	2.0–2.5	1385	$2,150	$1.55	14d	8	0.75mi
306 Orchard Ct Red Lion, PA	2.0	1.5	1300	$1,495	$1.15	21d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-13
   status $184,500 Pending 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $184,500 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $184,500 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $184,500 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $184,500 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   days on market $184,500 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $184,500 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $184,500 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $184,500 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $184,500 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-05-25
    listed $184,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 14% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,728
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,335
• − Property taxes: −$2,768
• − Insurance: −$922
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,818
• − Management: −$1,818
• − Depreciation: −$5,367
• Taxable loss: −$301
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$72
• After-tax cash flow: $2,727/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Red Lion Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4220100
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $60,225
• Composite: 37.91/100
• National rank: #4313
• State rank: #282 of 539 in PA

Livability — Red Lion

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #349
• US rank: #3056

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: York County · 278,806 people
• City population: 22,869
• Metro: York-Hanover, PA
• Population (ZIP): 22,869
• Household income: $86,561
• Rent vs Own: 24.3% rent · 75.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 559.0

Population outlook (York County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 454,205 people
• By 2030: 457,407 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 457,529 · +0.7%
• By 2050: 448,261 · -1.3%
• By 2075: 427,388 · -5.9%
• By 2100: 384,218 · -15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Chinese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · York

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.3) · D 36.9% · R 62.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.7pp toward R · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -25.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.3 2020: R+24.6 2016: R+29.3 2012: R+21.2 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.16%
• Current HPI: 259.7294
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: York-Hanover, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-25 Listed $184,500 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $318 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.