328 Old Pike Hwy · Coldiron, KY 40819

$100,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · Manufactured · 82 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 0.40 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Appreciation +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home is situated on permanent foundation in the county! Built in 2021 this home has been very well maintained. Excellent neighborhood with a great back yard for sittin, or for kids or critters to roam. Price is perfect for your own home or an investment property Buyer/Buyers agent to confirm all listing information

Key facts

• Permanent foundation
• Great back yard
• 0.4 acre lot

Tags

• PERMANENT FOUNDATION
• GREAT BACK YARD
• EXCELLENT NEIGHBORHOOD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $57 ($685/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $95k (5.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $94k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#398 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Harlan County (rural): math 16% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #149 of 165 in KY (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.4%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harlan County population projected at -34% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 9→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $94,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.45%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.44% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-10,215
• Equity at exit: $17,399

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-2,117
• Equity at exit: $12,982

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40819

• Home prices YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 2
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $947 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,500/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$199
• Net cashflow: $57

Break-even live

Break-even rent $875

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $100,000 Active 82 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $100,000 Active 81 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $100,000 Active 80 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100,000 Active 79 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $100,000 Active 77 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $100,000 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $100,000 Active 72 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $100,000 Active 71 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $100,000 Active 67 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $100,000 Active 66 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $100,000 Active 65 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $100,000 Active 64 DOM
13. 2026-03-28
    listed $100,000 Active 325-char remark

    Show marketing remark (325 chars)

    This home is situated on permanent foundation in the county! Built in 2021 this home has been very well maintained. Excellent neighborhood with a great back yard for sittin, or for kids or critters to roam. Price is perfect for your own home or an investment property Buyer/Buyers agent to confirm all listing information

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 9 d/yr ≥99°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,364
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$1,500
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$909
• − Management: −$909
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable loss: −$964
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$231
• After-tax cash flow: $916/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained manufactured home on a permanent foundation is situated in a great neighborhood with a spacious backyard. Simple landscaping and interior updates could further enhance its value for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — Enhancing the landscaping can improve both the resale and rental value by making the property more attractive and appealing to potential buyers or renters.
• Both Interior updates — Updating the interior can significantly increase the home's value by modernizing the space and making it more appealing to a broader range of buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping — Enhancing the landscaping can improve both the resale and rental value by making the property more attractive and appealing to potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Interior updates — Updating the interior can significantly increase the home's value by modernizing the space and making it more appealing to a broader range of buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harlan County
• NCES district ID: 2102540
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -24.00%
• Median HH income: $26,283
• Composite: 20.13/100
• National rank: #8642
• State rank: #149 of 165 in KY

Livability — Coldiron

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #398
• US rank: #19093

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Coldiron, KY
• Population (ZIP): 632

Population outlook (Harlan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,324 people
• By 2030: 22,492 · -7.5%
• By 2040: 19,052 · -21.7%
• By 2050: 16,060 · -34.0%
• By 2075: 10,525 · -56.7%
• By 2100: 6,933 · -71.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Harlan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+76.2) · D 11.6% · R 87.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.0pp toward R · 2008: -46.2pp · 2024: -76.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+76.2 2020: R+71.8 2016: R+72.2 2012: R+64.0 2008: R+46.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.44%
• Current HPI: 147.8311
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-28 Listed $100,000 Knoxville MLS