6816 S Pinehurst Dr · Gilbert, AZ 85298

$569,000

2 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,764 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 159 Days on market

Built 2003 7,296 sqft lot $323/sqft · at area comps Est $586k · at est. $106/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +8.8/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Awarded February's ''Best Home on Tour'' by Fairway Mortgage. Fall in love with this gorgeous home in the desirable Golf & Resort Community of Seville! Features updated landscaping & inviting front porch. Bright living room new w/ full wall-mounted fireplace. Upgrades throughout include new flooring, interior paint, dual pane windows & plantation shutters. Kitchen boasts SS appliances, ample cabinets, desk area, granite counters, kitchen island, breakfast bar & bay window dining. Primary suite w/ patio access, ensuite & walk-in closet. Open den/office could easily be turned into a third bedroom or dining room. Backyard w/ 2 covered patios, built-in BBQ & well-maintained pool.

Key facts

• Fresh paint
• Plantation shutters
• Ss appliances

Tags

• WALL-MOUNTED FIREPLACE
• NEW WOOD-LOOK FLOORING
• FRESH PAINT
• DUAL PANE WINDOWS
• PLANTATION SHUTTERS
• SS APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $569k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-889 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $412k (27.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $328k (42.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $328k (42.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.2% in Gilbert — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#1 in AZ, #240 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Chandler Unified District #80 (4242) (suburban): math 49% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #31 of 249 in AZ (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Riggs Elementary (math 56% / reading 63%, grade B-, #148 of 1,109 statewide, top 15%, 833 students, 12% FRL); Arizona College Prep Middle School (math 88% / reading 87%, grade A+, #1 of 218 statewide, top 0%, 744 students, 4% FRL); Dr. Camille Casteel High School (math 45% / reading 53%, grade D, #43 of 381 statewide, top 11%, 3,140 students, 12% FRL) — zoned schools average 9% FRL vs 25% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 65% at this address vs 53% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Chandler Unified District #80 (4242) average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 339 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $52k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $48k appreciation (8.4% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$83k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 159 days — a 12% lower offer ($501k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $46k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $395k; 44% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $327,827 (42.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 159 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.70%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 14.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $586,215
• List price: $569,000
• Delta: -2.94%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6823 S Pinehurst Dr	0.03mi	2/2.5	1,764 (0%)	1mo	$485,000	$275	92
6774 S Pinehurst Dr	0.08mi	2/2.5	1,764 (0%)	14mo	$525,000	$298	78
6762 S St Andrews Way	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,764 (0%)	7mo	$535,000	$303	78
6637 S Cartier Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,665 (-6%)	1mo	$515,000	$309	64
4185 E Killarney St	0.14mi	3/3.0 (+1)	2,020 (+14%)	6mo	$542,500	$269	55
6688 S Cartier Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,665 (-6%)	14mo	$540,000	$324	55
7015 S Stadium Ct	0.54mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,750 (-1%)	13mo	$602,000	$344	50
6579 S Classic Way	0.35mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,623 (-8%)	14mo	$589,000	$363	45
6337 S Blake St	0.66mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,899 (+8%)	2mo	$435,000	$229	43
6497 S Twilight Ct	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,752 (-1%)	13mo	$462,000	$264	43
6508 S Twilight Ct	0.71mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,693 (-4%)	7mo	$420,000	$248	40
18132 E Vencino St	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	2,000 (+13%)	11mo	$950,000	$475	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.36% appreciation · 4.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.23×
• Total profit: $195,181
• Equity at exit: $446,409

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.88×
• Total profit: $618,284
• Equity at exit: $899,938

Cash invested: $159,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85298

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 339
• Price-to-rent: 14.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,278 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,984
• Tax from tax record: −$152 /mo · $1,826/yr
• Insurance: −$237
• HOA: −$106
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$688
• Net cashflow: $-889

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,404

Max offer price $411,901

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-567	-5% $-728	+0% $-889	+5% $-1,050	+10% $-1,211
Rent	-10% $-1,148	-5% $-1,019	+0% $-889	+5% $-760	+10% $-630
Rate	-1.0pp $-603	-0.5pp $-745	base $-889	+0.5pp $-1,037	+1.0pp $-1,187

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $142,250
• Closing costs: $17,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6686 S St Andrews Way Gilbert, AZ	2.0	2.5	1764	$5,100	$2.89	46d	1	0.18mi
6659 S Cartier Dr Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1665	$2,300	$1.38	20d	1	0.27mi
6687 S Classic Way Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	2173	$4,300	$1.98	3d	1	0.28mi
3725 E Meadowview Dr Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1404	$2,750	$1.96	26d	1	0.65mi
6334 S Blake St Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1421	$2,100	$1.48	46d	1	0.70mi
3808 E Flower Ct Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.5	1628	$2,095	$1.29	7d	1	0.72mi
3868 E Palmer St Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.5	1899	$2,000	$1.05	46d	1	0.74mi
3560 E Merlot St Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1777	$4,750	$2.67	46d	1	0.81mi
3443 E Riopelle Ave Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1284	$2,350	$1.83	46d	1	0.89mi
3462 E Powell Way Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1665	$2,295	$1.38	26d	1	1.17mi
3147 E Vallejo Dr Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	2171	$2,350	$1.08	19d	1	1.26mi
3329 E Powell Ct Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1486	$2,345	$1.58	17d	1	1.28mi
3067 E Palmdale Ln Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1675	$2,300	$1.37	17d	1	1.39mi
6770 S Tucana Ln Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	2070	$4,500	$2.17	26d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $106 · $1,272/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpool

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-07
   status $569,000 Pending 159 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $569,000 Active 159 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $569,000 Active 158 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $569,000 Active 157 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $569,000 Active 156 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $569,000 Active 155 DOM
7. 2026-04-22
   price $575,000 708-char remark

   Show marketing remark (708 chars)

   Awarded February's ''Best Home on Tour'' by Fairway Mortgage. Fall in love with this gorgeous home in the desirable Golf & Resort Community of Seville! Features updated landscaping & inviting front porch. Bright living room new w/ full wall-mounted fireplace. Upgrades throughout include new flooring, interior paint, dual pane windows & plantation shutters. Kitchen boasts SS appliances, ample cabinets, desk area, granite counters, kitchen island, breakfast bar & bay window dining. Primary suite w/ patio access, ensuite & walk-in closet. Open den/office could easily be turned into a third bedroom or dining room. Backyard w/ 2 covered patios, built-in BBQ & well-maintained pool.

8. 2026-02-28
   price $580,000 708-char remark

   Show marketing remark (708 chars)

   Awarded February's ''Best Home on Tour'' by Fairway Mortgage. Fall in love with this gorgeous home in the desirable Golf & Resort Community of Seville! Features updated landscaping & inviting front porch. Bright living room new w/ full wall-mounted fireplace. Upgrades throughout include new flooring, interior paint, dual pane windows & plantation shutters. Kitchen boasts SS appliances, ample cabinets, desk area, granite counters, kitchen island, breakfast bar & bay window dining. Primary suite w/ patio access, ensuite & walk-in closet. Open den/office could easily be turned into a third bedroom or dining room. Backyard w/ 2 covered patios, built-in BBQ & well-maintained pool.

9. 2025-12-27
   listed $615,000 Active 708-char remark

   Show marketing remark (708 chars)

   Awarded February's ''Best Home on Tour'' by Fairway Mortgage. Fall in love with this gorgeous home in the desirable Golf & Resort Community of Seville! Features updated landscaping & inviting front porch. Bright living room new w/ full wall-mounted fireplace. Upgrades throughout include new flooring, interior paint, dual pane windows & plantation shutters. Kitchen boasts SS appliances, ample cabinets, desk area, granite counters, kitchen island, breakfast bar & bay window dining. Primary suite w/ patio access, ensuite & walk-in closet. Open den/office could easily be turned into a third bedroom or dining room. Backyard w/ 2 covered patios, built-in BBQ & well-maintained pool.

10. 2022-01-09
    status Pending
11. 2022-01-06
    listed $529,000 Active
12. 2021-01-05
    soldstatus $395,000 Closed
13. 2021-01-05
    soldstatus $395,000
14. 2020-11-11
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
15. 2020-11-10
    listed $394,500 Active
16. 2010-01-21
    soldstatus $160,000
17. 2010-01-20
    soldstatus $160,000
18. 2009-05-31
    historical
19. 2009-03-12
    listed $195,000
20. 2008-02-01
    soldstatus $295,000
21. 2008-02-01
    soldstatus $295,000
22. 2008-01-31
    historical
23. 2008-01-03
    listed $300,000
24. 2007-12-26
    historical
25. 2007-07-27
    listed $319,000
26. 2007-02-15
    soldstatus $320,000
27. 2007-02-08
    soldstatus $320,000
28. 2006-12-12
    historical
29. 2006-04-18
    listed $340,000
30. 2003-08-05
    soldstatus $210,730
31. 2003-07-25
    historical
32. 2003-05-27
    listed $212,481

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,826 · $152/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,755 · $313/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,930/yr (+$161/mo · 105.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,339
• − Mortgage interest: −$31,873
• − Property taxes: −$1,826
• − Insurance: −$2,845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,147
• − Management: −$3,147
• − HOA: −$1,272
• − Depreciation: −$16,553
• Taxable loss: −$21,323
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,118
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,554/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chandler Unified District #80 (4242)
• NCES district ID: 0401870
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,048
• Composite: 47.54/100
• National rank: #2268
• State rank: #31 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Gilbert

• Score: 87/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #240

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gilbert, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 281,769
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 44,114
• Household income: $156,425
• Rent vs Own: 8.9% rent · 91.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 173.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Asian 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.36%
• Current HPI: 343.6932
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.31%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+170.6% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $575,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-28 Price Changed $580,000 ARMLS
• 2025-12-27 Listed $615,000 ARMLS
• 2022-01-09 Pending — ARMLS
• 2022-01-06 Listed $529,000 ARMLS
• 2021-01-05 Sold (Public Records) $395,000 Public Records
• 2021-01-05 Sold (MLS) $395,000 ARMLS
• 2020-11-11 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2020-11-10 Listed $394,500 ARMLS
• 2010-01-21 Sold (MLS) $160,000 ARMLS
• 2010-01-20 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records
• 2009-05-31 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2009-03-12 Listed $195,000 ARMLS
• 2008-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $295,000 Public Records
• 2008-02-01 Sold (MLS) $295,000 ARMLS
• 2008-01-31 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2008-01-03 Listed $300,000 ARMLS
• 2007-12-26 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2007-07-27 Listed $319,000 ARMLS
• 2007-02-15 Sold (MLS) $320,000 ARMLS
• 2007-02-08 Sold (Public Records) $320,000 Public Records
• 2006-12-12 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2006-04-18 Listed $340,000 ARMLS
• 2003-08-05 Sold (MLS) $210,730 ARMLS
• 2003-07-25 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2003-05-27 Listed $212,481 ARMLS

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,826 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.