822 Woodstream St · Stockton, CA 95206

$399,950

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,475 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 71 Days on market

Built 1995 5,001 sqft lot $271/sqft · 17% below area Est $483k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This single-story residence in desirable Weston Ranch offers 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Open floorplan features vaulted ceilings in the formal living and dining areas, family room, and master bedroom. Gorgeous hardwood floors grace the hallways, family room and kitchen adding warmth and elegance. Cozy family room with wood burning fireplace flows seamlessly into the kitchen perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Kitchen boasts stainless steel appliances, gas stove, tile countertops, and a built-in microwave. The master bathroom includes double sinks for added convenience. Additional highlights include a brand-new HVAC system installed in 2025, ceiling fans, and a concrete patio for

Key facts

• Tile countertops
• Gas stove
• Vaulted ceilings

Tags

• VAULTED CEILINGS
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GAS STOVE
• TILE COUNTERTOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-163 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $371k (7.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $298k (25.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $298k (25.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.6% in Stockton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#734 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, amenities A-; Watch: employment C-, crime F, commute F.
• Manteca Unified (suburban): math 15% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #297 of 517 in CA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Great Valley Elementary (911 students, 67% FRL); Weston Ranch High (math 11% / reading 38%, grade F, #826 of 1,170 statewide, top 80%, 1,265 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 139 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($376k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $114k; list at $400k implies a 251% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $297,518 (25.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.75%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $483,314
• List price: $399,950
• Delta: -17.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4753 Ridge River Ave	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,421 (-4%)	3mo	$480,000	$338	82
4856 Woodhollow Ave	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,640 (+11%)	4mo	$475,000	$290	64
4309 Blake Cir	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,529 (+4%)	7mo	$465,000	$304	63
4415 Ews Woods Blvd	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,465 (-1%)	10mo	$440,000	$300	63
3812 Steve Lillie Cir	0.67mi	4/2.0	1,475 (0%)	8mo	$430,000	$292	62
3836 Steve Lillie Cir	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,475 (0%)	10mo	$462,500	$314	58
1151 Klemeyer Cir	0.61mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,547 (+5%)	4mo	$450,000	$291	54
1154 Le Corbusier Ct	0.72mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,556 (+6%)	1mo	$490,000	$315	47
4342 Sardina Ct	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,649 (+12%)	0mo	$485,000	$294	46
901 Kate Linde Cir	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,372 (-7%)	10mo	$437,500	$319	46
4910 Hearthwood Ct	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,649 (+12%)	4mo	$437,500	$265	40
921 Kate Linde Cir	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,650 (+12%)	8mo	$465,000	$282	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-84,010
• Equity at exit: $59,634

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-120,649
• Equity at exit: $34,580

Cash invested: $111,986 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95206

• Rents YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 139
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,975 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,097
• Tax from tax record: −$249 /mo · $2,991/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$625
• Net cashflow: $-163

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,181

Max offer price $371,181

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $64	-5% $-50	+0% $-163	+5% $-276	+10% $-389
Rent	-10% $-398	-5% $-280	+0% $-163	+5% $-45	+10% $72
Rate	-1.0pp $39	-0.5pp $-61	base $-163	+0.5pp $-266	+1.0pp $-372

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,988
• Closing costs: $11,998
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3712 McDougald Blvd Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1577	$2,695	$1.71	16d	1	0.70mi
1106 Klemeyer Cir Stockton, CA	4.0	3.0	1726	$2,700	$1.56	23d	1	0.75mi
1107 Le Corbusier Ct Stockton, CA	4.0	2.0	1200	$2,500	$2.08	12d	1	0.75mi
3569 Shogoro Ln Stockton, CA	4.0	3.0	1680	$2,600	$1.55	45d	1	0.97mi
3579 Turnpike Rd Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,800	$1.87	12d	1	0.99mi
1332 Lloyd Thayer Cir Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1786	$2,450	$1.37	45d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $399,950 Pending 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,950 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,950 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,950 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $399,950 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $399,950 Active 66 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $399,950 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $439,950 Active 63 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $439,950 Active 62 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $439,950 Active 61 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $439,950 Active 58 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $439,950 Active 57 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $439,950 Active 56 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $439,950 Active 55 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $439,950 Active 54 DOM
16. 1996-11-27
    soldstatus $114,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,991 · $249/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,040 · $253/mo
• Expected delta: +$49/yr (+$4/mo · 1.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 26 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,702
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,403
• − Property taxes: −$2,991
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,856
• − Management: −$2,856
• − Depreciation: −$11,635
• Taxable loss: −$9,039
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,169
• After-tax cash flow: $215/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manteca Unified
• NCES district ID: 0623610
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $62,426
• Composite: 28.5/100
• National rank: #6737
• State rank: #297 of 517 in CA

Livability — Stockton

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #734
• US rank: #21638

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stockton, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 332,006
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 68,558
• Household income: $83,432
• Rent vs Own: 39.7% rent · 60.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1459.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 60% Two or more races 20% Asian 18% Black 11% White 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 55%
• Common ancestry: Swiss 1% Russian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 35% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 39% English-only · Spanish 46% Tagalog/Filipino 6% Other Asian/Pacific 4%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -228.27%
• Current HPI: 357.6069
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.55%
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 1996-11-27 Sold (Public Records) $114,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,991 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.