16 Caddo Dr · Riverside, TX 77320

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,320 sqft · Manufactured public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1999 0.82 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.3/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very nice, well maintained 3/2 doublewide home on 2 large shaded lots. The home is skirted and has a metal roof. It has a large living area with a wood burning fireplace, screened in porch, carport and storage building. The washer, dryer and refrigerator are included.

Key facts

• Durable metal roof
• Screened in porch
• Storage building

Tags

• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• BREAKFAST BAR
• LARGE FENCED BACKYARD
• SCREENED IN PORCH
• DURABLE METAL ROOF
• STORAGE BUILDING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport; Carport with 3 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Aerobic septic
• Home design: Residential property; Entry level: First floor
• Construction: Built in 1999; Aluminum siding; Metal roof; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Located on a cul-de-sac

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor; Two additional bedrooms on the first floor; Total of 4 rooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Wood-burning fireplace (1); Tub with shower

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $439 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 4.3% in Riverside — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,150 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Huntsville ISD (town): math 25% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #621 of 826 in TX (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Huntsville El (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 603 students, 77% FRL); Mance Park Middle (math 26% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,236 of 1,662 statewide, top 76%, 904 students, 74% FRL); Huntsville H S (math 13% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,431 of 1,632 statewide, top 88%, 1,797 students, 68% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 42% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 520 active listings in the ZIP; 527 units permitted in Walker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Walker County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.9% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 92% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,125 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.05%
• DSCR: 1.67
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.89% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $7,522
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.19×
• Total profit: $41,789
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77320

• Home prices YoY: -33.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 520
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,570 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$94 /mo · $1,128/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$330
• Net cashflow: $439

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,015

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $510	-5% $474	+0% $439	+5% $404	+10% $368
Rent	-10% $315	-5% $377	+0% $439	+5% $501	+10% $563
Rate	-1.0pp $502	-0.5pp $471	base $439	+0.5pp $407	+1.0pp $374

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,000 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $125,000 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,000 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $125,000 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $125,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $125,000 Active 2 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    remarks 693-char remark
15. 2026-06-03
    listed $125,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,128 · $94/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,288 · $191/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,159/yr (+$97/mo · 102.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 92% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,846
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,128
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,508
• − Management: −$1,508
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $3,439
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$825
• After-tax cash flow: $4,444/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Huntsville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824030
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $36,597
• Composite: 25.71/100
• National rank: #7383
• State rank: #621 of 826 in TX

Livability — Riverside

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1150
• US rank: #20204

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Walker County · 75,669 people
• City population: 634
• Metro: Huntsville, TX
• Population (ZIP): 38,152
• Household income: $55,663
• Rent vs Own: 34.1% rent · 65.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1030.0

Population outlook (Walker County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 77,602 people
• By 2030: 82,007 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 90,436 · +16.5%
• By 2050: 100,240 · +29.2%
• By 2075: 123,667 · +59.4%
• By 2100: 135,073 · +74.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 26% Black 21% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Walker

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.0) · D 29.6% · R 69.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.4pp · 2024: -40.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.0 2020: R+31.7 2016: R+34.5 2012: R+28.4 2008: R+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.48%
• Current HPI: 190.199
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.89%
• Metro: Huntsville, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+83.8% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $125,000 HARMLS
• 2021-11-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2021-10-30 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2021-10-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-08-29 Listed $125,000 HARMLS
• 2020-03-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-03-24 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-03-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-03-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-02-17 Listed $82,500 HARMLS
• 2016-02-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-02-26 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2015-10-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-10-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-08-27 Listed $68,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,128 · +17.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.