259 Park Dr · Lakehills, TX 78063-6445

$199,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,792 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 529 Days on market

Built 1996 0.33 ac lot $111/sqft · 30% below area Est $282k · 30% under $7/mo HOA ↓ 39% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Motivated! BRING ALL OFFERS!! Welcome to your serene getaway in the Heart of the Texas Hill Country! Great for an AirBNB or VRBO! This charming 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home is a hidden gem nestled among mature trees, offering a peaceful retreat just steps away from the picturesque Medina Lake. Ideal for an Airbnb or VRBO, this property upon entry has tall ceilings with large windows showcasing the beautiful natural surroundings, and leaving you with the Bright, Light, and Airy feeling. The kitchen layout allows for you to cook while allowing natural light pour in. There is plenty of outdoor space to The neighborhood enhances the experience with amenities such as a boat ramp for easy lake access and a park for leisurely strolls and picnics. Whether you're seeking a peaceful getaway or an exciting lake adventure, this home provides the ideal setting for memorable stays.

Key facts

• Large windows
• Tall ceilings
• 0.33 acre lot

Tags

• PICTURESQUE MEDINA LAKE
• TALL CEILINGS
• LARGE WINDOWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $274 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (2.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 2.2% in Lakehills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#963 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Bandera ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #500 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6 units permitted in Bandera County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 529 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $36k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 529 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.90%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $282,493
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -29.56%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
559 Lookout Dr	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,876 (+5%)	19mo	$350,000	$187	68
427 Black Bass Rd	0.32mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,784 (-0%)	23mo	$249,000	$140	60
148 Lakeshore Rd	0.41mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,715 (-4%)	11mo	$345,000	$201	60
140 Water View Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (-12%)	15mo	$300,000	$191	59
496 Black Bass Rd	0.37mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,920 (+7%)	21mo	$199,900	$104	48
308 Black Bass	0.35mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,524 (-15%)	13mo	$278,000	$182	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.74×
• Total profit: $41,375
• Equity at exit: $89,479

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.20×
• Total profit: $122,818
• Equity at exit: $137,898

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78063-6445

• Active inventory: 1
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,941 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$126 /mo · $1,514/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$7
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $274

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,594

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $387	-5% $330	+0% $274	+5% $218	+10% $161
Rent	-10% $121	-5% $197	+0% $274	+5% $351	+10% $427
Rate	-1.0pp $374	-0.5pp $325	base $274	+0.5pp $222	+1.0pp $170

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1923 Pebble Beach Rd Lakehills, TX	3.0	2.0	1404	$1,900	$1.35	2d	1	0.54mi
912 Pebble Beach Rd NW Lakehills, TX	3.0	1.5	1820	$2,000	$1.10	25d	1	0.96mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $7 · $84/yr

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,000 Active 529 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 526 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 525 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 524 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 523 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 521 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 517 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,000 Active 515 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $199,000 Active 512 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 511 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 510 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 509 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 508 DOM
14. 2026-03-12
    price $199,000 878-char remark

    Show marketing remark (878 chars)

    Motivated! BRING ALL OFFERS!! Welcome to your serene getaway in the Heart of the Texas Hill Country! Great for an AirBNB or VRBO! This charming 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home is a hidden gem nestled among mature trees, offering a peaceful retreat just steps away from the picturesque Medina Lake. Ideal for an Airbnb or VRBO, this property upon entry has tall ceilings with large windows showcasing the beautiful natural surroundings, and leaving you with the Bright, Light, and Airy feeling. The kitchen layout allows for you to cook while allowing natural light pour in. There is plenty of outdoor space to The neighborhood enhances the experience with amenities such as a boat ramp for easy lake access and a park for leisurely strolls and picnics. Whether you're seeking a peaceful getaway or an exciting lake adventure, this home provides the ideal setting for memorable stays.

15. 2025-10-08
    price $210,000 878-char remark

    Show marketing remark (878 chars)

    Motivated! BRING ALL OFFERS!! Welcome to your serene getaway in the Heart of the Texas Hill Country! Great for an AirBNB or VRBO! This charming 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home is a hidden gem nestled among mature trees, offering a peaceful retreat just steps away from the picturesque Medina Lake. Ideal for an Airbnb or VRBO, this property upon entry has tall ceilings with large windows showcasing the beautiful natural surroundings, and leaving you with the Bright, Light, and Airy feeling. The kitchen layout allows for you to cook while allowing natural light pour in. There is plenty of outdoor space to The neighborhood enhances the experience with amenities such as a boat ramp for easy lake access and a park for leisurely strolls and picnics. Whether you're seeking a peaceful getaway or an exciting lake adventure, this home provides the ideal setting for memorable stays.

16. 2025-03-10
    price $220,000 878-char remark

    Show marketing remark (878 chars)

    Motivated! BRING ALL OFFERS!! Welcome to your serene getaway in the Heart of the Texas Hill Country! Great for an AirBNB or VRBO! This charming 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home is a hidden gem nestled among mature trees, offering a peaceful retreat just steps away from the picturesque Medina Lake. Ideal for an Airbnb or VRBO, this property upon entry has tall ceilings with large windows showcasing the beautiful natural surroundings, and leaving you with the Bright, Light, and Airy feeling. The kitchen layout allows for you to cook while allowing natural light pour in. There is plenty of outdoor space to The neighborhood enhances the experience with amenities such as a boat ramp for easy lake access and a park for leisurely strolls and picnics. Whether you're seeking a peaceful getaway or an exciting lake adventure, this home provides the ideal setting for memorable stays.

17. 2025-01-08
    listed $235,000 New 878-char remark

    Show marketing remark (878 chars)

    Motivated! BRING ALL OFFERS!! Welcome to your serene getaway in the Heart of the Texas Hill Country! Great for an AirBNB or VRBO! This charming 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home is a hidden gem nestled among mature trees, offering a peaceful retreat just steps away from the picturesque Medina Lake. Ideal for an Airbnb or VRBO, this property upon entry has tall ceilings with large windows showcasing the beautiful natural surroundings, and leaving you with the Bright, Light, and Airy feeling. The kitchen layout allows for you to cook while allowing natural light pour in. There is plenty of outdoor space to The neighborhood enhances the experience with amenities such as a boat ramp for easy lake access and a park for leisurely strolls and picnics. Whether you're seeking a peaceful getaway or an exciting lake adventure, this home provides the ideal setting for memorable stays.

18. 2025-01-07
    historical
19. 2024-10-09
    listed $235,000 New
20. 2024-10-09
    historical
21. 2024-05-26
    listed $250,000 New
22. 2024-05-06
    historical
23. 2024-03-06
    listed $250,000 New
24. 2024-02-27
    historical
25. 2024-02-02
    price $275,000
26. 2023-11-15
    price $299,000
27. 2023-11-14
    status Back on Market
28. 2023-10-02
    historical
29. 2023-06-27
    listed $325,000 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,514 · $126/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,642 · $303/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,128/yr (+$177/mo · 140.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 66% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,294
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$1,514
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,864
• − Management: −$1,864
• − HOA: −$84
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable income: $38
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$9
• After-tax cash flow: $3,278/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bandera ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809360
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $48,771
• Composite: 30.61/100
• National rank: #6194
• State rank: #500 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lakehills

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #963
• US rank: #17024

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakehills, TX

Population outlook (Bandera County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,614 people
• By 2030: 23,102 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 23,489 · +3.9%
• By 2050: 23,264 · +2.9%
• By 2075: 23,607 · +4.4%
• By 2100: 22,265 · -1.5%

Not yet ingested

• Political lean: —
• Race & ethnicity: —
• Common origin: —
• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-38.8% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $199,000 LERA
• 2025-10-08 Price Changed $210,000 LERA
• 2025-03-10 Price Changed $220,000 LERA
• 2025-01-08 Listed $235,000 LERA
• 2025-01-07 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2024-10-09 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2024-10-09 Listed $235,000 LERA
• 2024-05-26 Listed $250,000 LERA
• 2024-05-06 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2024-03-06 Listed $250,000 LERA
• 2024-02-27 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2024-02-02 Price Changed $275,000 LERA
• 2023-11-15 Price Changed $299,000 LERA
• 2023-11-14 Relisted — LERA
• 2023-10-02 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2023-06-27 Listed $325,000 LERA

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,514 · +11.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.