3146 Steven's Chapel Rd · Pine Level, NC 27577

$230,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,350 sqft · Manufactured public records · 10 Days on market

Built 2000 1.03 ac lot Est $242k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• ARV discount +9.7/15.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Newly updated double wide manufactured home on 1.03 acres. Fresh paint, new light fixtures & new LVP flooring for the entire home! The kitchen has been updated with freshly painted white cabinets, new appliances, new hardware & * gorgeous * butcher block countertops. The kitchen is open to the dining area & family room making this home more spacious & functional. The bathrooms have also been updated with freshly painted white vanities, wood countertops & new hardware. 2 storage sheds on property convey--WOW! New HVAC Sept 2022! This home is move in ready & waiting for the new owner. Come Tour!

Key facts

• Room to spread out
• Peace and quiet
• Over an acre

Tags

• OVER AN ACRE
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• ROOM TO SPREAD OUT
• PEACE AND QUIET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3 ($-33/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $230k (0.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (23.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (23.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.4% in Pine Level — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#116 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Johnston County Public Schools (rural): math 39% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #105 of 178 in NC (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Princeton High (math 36% / reading 40%, grade F, #409 of 535 statewide, top 77%, 1,024 students, 49% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 401 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,783 units permitted in Johnston County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnston County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,191 (23.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.05%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $241,650
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
589 Red House Rd	0.63mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,276 (-6%)	12mo	$229,000	$179	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-42,702
• Equity at exit: $34,294

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-57,744
• Equity at exit: $19,886

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27577

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 401
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,762 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$93 /mo · $1,112/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $-3

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,765

Max offer price $229,513

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $127	-5% $62	+0% $-3	+5% $-68	+10% $-133
Rent	-10% $-142	-5% $-72	+0% $-3	+5% $67	+10% $136
Rate	-1.0pp $113	-0.5pp $56	base $-3	+0.5pp $-62	+1.0pp $-123

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
218 Lotus Ave Smithfield, NC	3.0	2.5	1567	$1,600	$1.02	22d	1	0.54mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-10
   listed $230,000 Active
3. 2022-10-27
   soldstatus $201,000 Closed 640-char remark

   Show marketing remark (640 chars)

   Newly updated double wide manufactured home on 1.03 acres. Fresh paint, new light fixtures & new LVP flooring for the entire home! The kitchen has been updated with freshly painted white cabinets, new appliances, new hardware & * gorgeous * butcher block countertops. The kitchen is open to the dining area & family room making this home more spacious & functional. The bathrooms have also been updated with freshly painted white vanities, wood countertops & new hardware. 2 storage sheds on property convey--WOW! New HVAC Sept 2022! This home is move in ready & waiting for the new owner. Come Tour!

4. 2022-10-27
   soldstatus $201,000

   Show marketing remark (640 chars)

   Newly updated double wide manufactured home on 1.03 acres. Fresh paint, new light fixtures & new LVP flooring for the entire home! The kitchen has been updated with freshly painted white cabinets, new appliances, new hardware & * gorgeous * butcher block countertops. The kitchen is open to the dining area & family room making this home more spacious & functional. The bathrooms have also been updated with freshly painted white vanities, wood countertops & new hardware. 2 storage sheds on property convey--WOW! New HVAC Sept 2022! This home is move in ready & waiting for the new owner. Come Tour!

5. 2022-09-18
   historical Contingent 640-char remark

   Show marketing remark (640 chars)

   Newly updated double wide manufactured home on 1.03 acres. Fresh paint, new light fixtures & new LVP flooring for the entire home! The kitchen has been updated with freshly painted white cabinets, new appliances, new hardware & * gorgeous * butcher block countertops. The kitchen is open to the dining area & family room making this home more spacious & functional. The bathrooms have also been updated with freshly painted white vanities, wood countertops & new hardware. 2 storage sheds on property convey--WOW! New HVAC Sept 2022! This home is move in ready & waiting for the new owner. Come Tour!

6. 2022-09-15
   listed $200,000 Active 640-char remark

   Show marketing remark (640 chars)

   Newly updated double wide manufactured home on 1.03 acres. Fresh paint, new light fixtures & new LVP flooring for the entire home! The kitchen has been updated with freshly painted white cabinets, new appliances, new hardware & * gorgeous * butcher block countertops. The kitchen is open to the dining area & family room making this home more spacious & functional. The bathrooms have also been updated with freshly painted white vanities, wood countertops & new hardware. 2 storage sheds on property convey--WOW! New HVAC Sept 2022! This home is move in ready & waiting for the new owner. Come Tour!

7. 2022-07-28
   soldstatus $125,000
8. 2016-05-25
   historical 512-char remark

   Show marketing remark (512 chars)

   Pristine condition!! Well maintained split floor plan feels much larger! Sheetrock walls in Family Rm, separate dining, nook, bar area. Dream kitichen w/ tons of counterspace and cabinets for storage. Large utility rm for your freezer! WIC in Master suite . Sep vanties, garden tub, sep shower in master bath. WIC in Bedroom 2. Beautiful Bradford pears frame this 1 acre country lot convenient to Hwy 70,I95. Landscaped, detached storage bldg. large lot perfect your your furry friends. Wooden blg for sale $1000

9. 2016-05-25
   soldstatus $78,000 Closed 512-char remark

   Show marketing remark (512 chars)

   Pristine condition!! Well maintained split floor plan feels much larger! Sheetrock walls in Family Rm, separate dining, nook, bar area. Dream kitichen w/ tons of counterspace and cabinets for storage. Large utility rm for your freezer! WIC in Master suite . Sep vanties, garden tub, sep shower in master bath. WIC in Bedroom 2. Beautiful Bradford pears frame this 1 acre country lot convenient to Hwy 70,I95. Landscaped, detached storage bldg. large lot perfect your your furry friends. Wooden blg for sale $1000

10. 2016-05-25
    soldstatus $78,000

    Show marketing remark (512 chars)

    Pristine condition!! Well maintained split floor plan feels much larger! Sheetrock walls in Family Rm, separate dining, nook, bar area. Dream kitichen w/ tons of counterspace and cabinets for storage. Large utility rm for your freezer! WIC in Master suite . Sep vanties, garden tub, sep shower in master bath. WIC in Bedroom 2. Beautiful Bradford pears frame this 1 acre country lot convenient to Hwy 70,I95. Landscaped, detached storage bldg. large lot perfect your your furry friends. Wooden blg for sale $1000

11. 2016-04-02
    historical Contingent 512-char remark

    Show marketing remark (512 chars)

    Pristine condition!! Well maintained split floor plan feels much larger! Sheetrock walls in Family Rm, separate dining, nook, bar area. Dream kitichen w/ tons of counterspace and cabinets for storage. Large utility rm for your freezer! WIC in Master suite . Sep vanties, garden tub, sep shower in master bath. WIC in Bedroom 2. Beautiful Bradford pears frame this 1 acre country lot convenient to Hwy 70,I95. Landscaped, detached storage bldg. large lot perfect your your furry friends. Wooden blg for sale $1000

12. 2016-03-18
    listed $79,900 Active 512-char remark

    Show marketing remark (512 chars)

    Pristine condition!! Well maintained split floor plan feels much larger! Sheetrock walls in Family Rm, separate dining, nook, bar area. Dream kitichen w/ tons of counterspace and cabinets for storage. Large utility rm for your freezer! WIC in Master suite . Sep vanties, garden tub, sep shower in master bath. WIC in Bedroom 2. Beautiful Bradford pears frame this 1 acre country lot convenient to Hwy 70,I95. Landscaped, detached storage bldg. large lot perfect your your furry friends. Wooden blg for sale $1000

13. 2016-01-23
    historical
14. 2015-08-03
    listed $79,900 Active
15. 2002-05-01
    soldstatus $88,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,112 · $93/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,886 · $157/mo
• Expected delta: +$774/yr (+$64/mo · 69.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,143
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$1,112
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,691
• − Management: −$1,691
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$4,077
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$978
• After-tax cash flow: $945/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Johnston County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702370
• Math proficiency: 39% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,912
• Composite: 34.99/100
• National rank: #5052
• State rank: #105 of 178 in NC

Livability — Pine Level

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #116
• US rank: #7217

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Johnston County · 175,441 people
• City population: 1,563
• Metro: Raleigh-Cary, NC
• Population (ZIP): 28,354
• Household income: $62,758
• Rent vs Own: 26.8% rent · 73.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 919.0

Population outlook (Johnston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 222,440 people
• By 2030: 240,227 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 274,616 · +23.5%
• By 2050: 304,915 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 369,507 · +66.1%
• By 2100: 406,280 · +82.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 21% Black 19% Two or more races 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13% Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.5) · D 38.7% · R 60.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.2pp toward D · 2008: -23.7pp · 2024: -21.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.5 2020: R+24.3 2016: R+30.7 2012: R+27.8 2008: R+23.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.11%
• Current HPI: 232.1552
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.05%
• Metro: Raleigh-Cary, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+161.4% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — TMLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $230,000 TMLS
• 2022-10-27 Sold (Public Records) $201,000 Public Records
• 2022-10-27 Sold (MLS) $201,000 TMLS
• 2022-09-18 Contingent — TMLS
• 2022-09-15 Listed $200,000 TMLS
• 2022-07-28 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2016-05-25 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2016-05-25 Sold (Public Records) $78,000 Public Records
• 2016-05-25 Sold (MLS) $78,000 TMLS
• 2016-04-02 Contingent — TMLS
• 2016-03-18 Listed $79,900 TMLS
• 2016-01-23 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2015-08-03 Listed $79,900 TMLS
• 2002-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $88,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,112 · +86.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.