5490 Old Paris Murray Rd · Paris, TN 38242

$85,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,370 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 67 Days on market

Built 1900 2.80 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Situated on approximately 2.8 acres in a peaceful rural setting, this property offers a unique opportunity for a cash buyer looking to restore and reimagine a home with character. The residence offers approximately 1,410 square feet of living space, plus an additional finished upper attic area of approximately 960 square feet that is not included in the total square footage due to the absence of a heat source. The property also includes a detached 24x20 garage and additional outbuilding/storage potential. Surrounded by open space and mature trees, the setting provides privacy, room to spread out, and the kind of country atmosphere that is increasingly hard to find. This property is best sui

Key facts

• 2.8 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1900

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Not attached to another building
• Construction: Wood siding; Frame construction
• Exterior features: Workshop (detached structure); Wooded, level lot with rolling slope; Country setting view

Interior

• Flooring: Vinyl floors
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric heating; Other heating; Central cooling; Other cooling
• Interior features: 6 total rooms; Vinyl flooring; Fireplace (other type); Other appliances

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $338 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $80k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#13 in TN, #4,115 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D, commute F.
• Henry County (rural): math 30% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #60 of 139 in TN (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 186 active listings in the ZIP; 19 units permitted in Henry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Henry County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $17k; list at $85k implies a 406% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.02%
• DSCR: 1.76
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $7,697
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.44×
• Total profit: $34,265
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38242

• Home prices YoY: -17.6%
• Active inventory: 186
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,075 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$30 /mo · $366/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$226
• Net cashflow: $338

Break-even live

Break-even rent $648

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $386	-5% $362	+0% $338	+5% $314	+10% $289
Rent	-10% $253	-5% $295	+0% $338	+5% $380	+10% $423
Rate	-1.0pp $380	-0.5pp $359	base $338	+0.5pp $316	+1.0pp $293

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 67 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 66 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 65 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 64 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 62 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $85,000 Active 61 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 58 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 57 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 56 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $85,000 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $85,000 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 51 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 50 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 49 DOM
15. 2026-05-22
    price $85,000
16. 2026-04-11
    listed $89,900 Active
17. 2000-03-08
    soldstatus $16,809
18. 1997-10-07
    soldstatus $16,809

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $366 · $30/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $604 · $50/mo
• Expected delta: +$238/yr (+$20/mo · 64.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,900
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$366
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,032
• − Management: −$1,032
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $2,811
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$675
• After-tax cash flow: $3,376/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henry County
• NCES district ID: 4701830
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $41,770
• Composite: 25.42/100
• National rank: #7457
• State rank: #60 of 139 in TN

Livability — Paris

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #13
• US rank: #4115

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 19,619
• Population (ZIP): 19,619

Population outlook (Henry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,750 people
• By 2030: 31,277 · -1.5%
• By 2040: 30,064 · -5.3%
• By 2050: 28,675 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 25,767 · -18.8%
• By 2100: 22,318 · -29.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Black 10% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Henry

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.3) · D 21.8% · R 77.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.0pp toward R · 2008: -22.4pp · 2024: -55.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.3 2020: R+51.1 2016: R+49.8 2012: R+30.2 2008: R+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.93%
• Current HPI: 234.3442
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+405.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $85,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2026-04-11 Listed $89,900 Knoxville MLS
• 2000-03-08 Sold (Public Records) $16,809 Public Records
• 1997-10-07 Sold (Public Records) $16,809 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $366 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.