45 Cabin Creek Rd · Toboyne, PA 17006

$59,000

2 bd · None ba · 900 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1953 10,018 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.8/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Tucked away on a . 23-acre lot in the heart of western Perry County recreation country, this cozy 2-bedroom cabin offers an affordable getaway near Tuscarora State Forest, Fowlers Hollow State Park, and Big Spring State Park. Whether you're looking for a hunting camp, fishing retreat, or weekend escape, this property provides easy access to thousands of acres of public land and year-round outdoor activities. The cabin features electric service, a wood burning fireplace for relaxing evenings, and a covered front porch where you can unwind and enjoy the peaceful surroundings. Located within walking distance of Schultz Creek, known locally for excellent fishing opportunities, the property is i

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1953

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Ownership: Fee simple; Property in Federal Flood Zone A-100; Above-grade finished area reported as 900 (source: Assessor)

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking (2 spaces); Total of 2 garage and parking spaces
• Utilities: Electric available (100 Amp service); Heating fuel: Oil and Wood; Wood-burning stove
• Home design: Detached structure; Metal roof; Stick-built construction; Shingle siding; Estimated year built
• Construction: Wood foundation on pillar/post/pier; Stick-built with shingle siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Front yard; Porch(es) with roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen integrated with dining area
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level; Rooms include Living Room, Bedroom 1, Bedroom 2, Kitchen
• Flooring: Partially carpeted; Vinyl flooring
• Heating & cooling: Wood-burning stove; Heating fuel: Oil and Wood; 100 Amp electric service
• Interior features: Combination kitchen and dining area; Paneled walls, wood walls, and wood ceilings; Furnished

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/?-bath single-family listed at $59k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $283 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $59k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• West Perry SD (rural): math 37% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #189 of 539 in PA (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Blain El Sch (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C, #504 of 1,518 statewide, top 37%, 263 students, 60% FRL); West Perry Ms (math 23% / reading 61%, grade D-, #221 of 512 statewide, top 45%, 496 students, 52% FRL); West Perry Shs (math 72% / reading 87%, grade A-, #19 of 437 statewide, top 4%, 686 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 32% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 107 units permitted in Perry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($408 loan paydown + $999 appreciation (1.7% local appreciation)).
• Perry County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $7k; list at $59k implies a 737% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo; built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $59,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.74% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.63%
• DSCR: 2.32
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.69% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.29×
• Total profit: $21,231
• Equity at exit: $22,300

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.37×
• Total profit: $55,693
• Equity at exit: $31,383

Cash invested: $16,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17006

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 10
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,028 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$309
• Tax from tax record: −$70 /mo · $839/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$216
• Net cashflow: $283

Break-even live

Break-even rent $670

Max offer price $59,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $316	-5% $299	+0% $283	+5% $266	+10% $249
Rent	-10% $202	-5% $242	+0% $283	+5% $323	+10% $364
Rate	-1.0pp $312	-0.5pp $298	base $283	+0.5pp $267	+1.0pp $252

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,750
• Closing costs: $1,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   statusdays on market $59,000 Active 1 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $59,000 Coming Soon 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $59,000 Coming Soon 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $59,000 Coming Soon 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $59,000 Coming Soon 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $59,000 Coming Soon 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $59,000 Coming Soon 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $59,000 Coming Soon 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $59,000 Coming Soon 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $59,000 Coming Soon 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $59,000 Coming Soon 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $59,000 Coming Soon 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $59,000 Coming Soon 3 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $59,000 Coming Soon 2 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    remarks 699-char remark
16. 2026-05-31
    listed $59,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $839 · $70/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $885 · $74/mo
• Expected delta: +$47/yr (+$4/mo · 5.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone A · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,331
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,305
• − Property taxes: −$839
• − Insurance: −$1,798
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$987
• − Management: −$987
• − Depreciation: −$1,716
• Taxable income: $2,701
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$648
• After-tax cash flow: $2,745/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Perry SD
• NCES district ID: 4225740
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $55,647
• Composite: 41.99/100
• National rank: #3338
• State rank: #189 of 539 in PA

Livability — Toboyne

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,096

Population outlook (Perry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 44,250 people
• By 2030: 42,862 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 39,574 · -10.6%
• By 2050: 36,001 · -18.6%
• By 2075: 27,991 · -36.7%
• By 2100: 20,936 · -52.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% German 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · German/W. Germanic 17% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Perry

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.3) · D 24.8% · R 74.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.6pp toward R · 2008: -33.7pp · 2024: -49.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.3 2020: R+50.1 2016: R+51.9 2012: R+38.8 2008: R+33.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.69%
• Current HPI: 131.3002
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+736.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-31 Coming Soon $59,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1990-03-12 Sold (Public Records) $7,050 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $839 · -7.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.