6315 Mountain Lily Ln · Houston, TX 77493

$318,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,083 sqft · SingleFamily · 1 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Est $319k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This single-story home shares an open layout between the kitchen, nook and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to the covered patio for year-round outdoor lounging. A luxe owner's suite is in a rear of the home and comes complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms near the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests, as well as a versatile flex space that can transform to meet the homeowner's needs.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Flex space
• Open layout

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• COVERED PATIO
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• FLEX SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Virtual tour available
• Financial info: List price $318,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; 2 total parking spaces
• Home design: Spec new construction — Springsteen plan; Single-family home (plan-based)
• Construction: New construction (spec home)
• Exterior features: Address: 6315 Mountain Lily Ln, Katy TX 77493; Living area approximately 2,083

Interior

• Kitchen: Plan includes standard kitchen (details not provided)
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (per plan)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area (details not provided)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $319k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-26 ($-310/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $315k (1.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $276k (13.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $276k (13.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Robert King El (math 41% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,313 of 4,322 statewide, top 31%, 981 students, 68% FRL); Katy J H (math 52% / reading 51%, grade C, #318 of 1,662 statewide, top 20%, 1,094 students, 53% FRL); Katy H S (math 62% / reading 74%, grade B, #150 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 3,330 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 27% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 2729 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $275,772 (13.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.35%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $318,699
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
26527 Ivory Petal Dr	0.12mi	4/2.0	2,083 (0%)	1mo	$309,140	$148	93
26607 Ivory Petal Dr	0.15mi	4/2.0	2,083 (0%)	1mo	$380,990	$183	92
26803 Scarlet Willow Dr	0.32mi	4/2.5	1,968 (-6%)	0mo	$275,240	$140	74
6614 Sienna Sunrise Ln	0.44mi	4/2.0	2,013 (-3%)	1mo	$309,790	$154	73
6634 Sienna Sunrise Ln	0.48mi	4/2.0	2,013 (-3%)	0mo	$305,990	$152	72
6630 Sienna Sunrise Ln	0.47mi	4/3.0	2,162 (+4%)	1mo	$293,490	$136	67
6426 Green Pedal Ln	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,908 (-8%)	1mo	$294,440	$154	59
5806 Havana Mist Dr	0.74mi	4/2.5	2,134 (+2%)	0mo	$305,000	$143	59
26410 Wild Stonecrop Ln	0.54mi	4/3.0	2,231 (+7%)	1mo	$340,990	$153	58
6710 Sienna Sunrise Ln	0.50mi	4/3.0	2,263 (+9%)	0mo	$328,590	$145	58
6427 Green Pedal Ln	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,880 (-10%)	1mo	$308,990	$164	56
6435 Green Pedal Ln	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,880 (-10%)	1mo	$324,140	$172	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-61,378
• Equity at exit: $47,562

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-86,632
• Equity at exit: $27,580

Cash invested: $89,317 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77493

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 2729
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,758 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,673
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$399 /mo · $4,785/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$579
• Net cashflow: $-26

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,790

Max offer price $315,247

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $195	-5% $84	+0% $-26	+5% $-136	+10% $-246
Rent	-10% $-244	-5% $-135	+0% $-26	+5% $83	+10% $192
Rate	-1.0pp $135	-0.5pp $55	base $-26	+0.5pp $-109	+1.0pp $-193

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,748
• Closing costs: $9,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6758 Sunset Velvet Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1580	$2,350	$1.49	45d	1	0.59mi
26642 Prairie Smoke Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1949	$2,300	$1.18	45d	1	0.62mi
26811 Prairie Smoke Ln Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1656	$2,250	$1.36	45d	1	0.67mi
6414 Orchid Beach Dr Katy, TX	5.0	4.0	2490	$3,000	$1.20	14d	1	0.71mi
5835 Big Bluestem Ln Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2890	$2,406	$0.83	45d	1	0.76mi
6303 Marigold Blaze Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$2,250	$1.53	45d	1	0.90mi
27507 Hudson Sands Ln Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2294	$3,000	$1.31	18d	1	1.00mi
6427 Seafoam Lake Dr Katy, TX	4.0	4.0	2479	$3,000	$1.21	0d	1	1.02mi
27327 Blue Pool Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2100	$2,600	$1.24	45d	1	1.06mi
5819 Bright Keel Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2598	$2,400	$0.92	45d	1	1.06mi
26802 Cenzontle Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$1,850	$1.26	45d	1	1.07mi
5631 Pearl Vista Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2039	$3,000	$1.47	22d	1	1.10mi
27064 Beach Ball Dr Katy, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1705	$2,957	$1.73	0d	25	1.17mi
7402 Clover Chase Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1840	$2,400	$1.30	45d	1	1.18mi
7410 Hillside Arbor Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2289	$2,400	$1.05	45d	1	1.23mi
3020 Nori Shores Dr Katy, TX	5.0	2.5	2408	$3,995	$1.66	26d	1	1.32mi
3084 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2085	$2,325	$1.12	14d	1	1.36mi
3081 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,275	$1.36	26d	1	1.38mi
3072 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2279	$2,550	$1.12	23d	1	1.39mi
3076 Dylan Skyland Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2240	$3,395	$1.52	26d	1	1.39mi
3053 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2085	$2,440	$1.17	17d	1	1.43mi
3064 Dawn Sound Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1464	$1,950	$1.33	45d	1	1.45mi
3104 Nori Shores Dr Katy, TX	5.0	2.5	1947	$3,695	$1.90	5d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-31
   remarks 489-char remark
2. 2026-05-31
   listed $318,990 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,093
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,868
• − Property taxes: −$4,785
• − Insurance: −$1,595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,647
• − Management: −$2,647
• − Depreciation: −$9,280
• Taxable loss: −$5,730
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,375
• After-tax cash flow: $1,065/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-story home features a modern open layout and well-maintained exterior, making it a great candidate for a cosmetic upgrade to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace window screens — Improves energy efficiency and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace window screens — Improves energy efficiency and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 413,575
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,484
• Household income: $118,464
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 913.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.65%
• Current HPI: 233.1683
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B