104 Agave Azul Cv · Mustang Ridge, TX 78616

$195,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Manufactured · 68 Days on market

Built 2021 Fair condition 0.33 ac lot $199/sqft · 11% below area Est $220k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.9/30.0
• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home in . 33 Acres has parking for 5 vehicles, a playscape, grilling area and a shed in the backyard.

Key facts

• Shed in the backyard
• Playscape
• Grilling area

Tags

• PARKING FOR 5 VEHICLES
• PLAYSCAPE
• GRILLING AREA
• SHED IN THE BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $195k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $164 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (6.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $183k (6.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 4.3% in Mustang Ridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#854 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bastrop ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #670 of 826 in TX (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 203 active listings in the ZIP; 1,841 units permitted in Bastrop County in 2024 (150 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bastrop County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $182,653 (6.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.60%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $220,000
• List price: $195,000
• Delta: -11.36%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
121 Sunflower Rd	0.14mi	3/2.0	924 (-6%)	2mo	$199,900	$216	82

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.14×
• Total profit: $116,614
• Equity at exit: $175,671

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.14×
• Total profit: $335,181
• Equity at exit: $378,842

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78616

• Home prices YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 203
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,827 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$175 /mo · $2,105/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
• Net cashflow: $164

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,619

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 68 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 67 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 66 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 65 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,000 Active 58 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $195,000 Active 57 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $195,000 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,000 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 51 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 50 DOM
14. 2026-04-11
    listed $195,000 Active 106-char remark

    Show marketing remark (106 chars)

    This home in . 33 Acres has parking for 5 vehicles, a playscape, grilling area and a shed in the backyard.

15. 2025-06-26
    listed Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,105 · $175/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,568 · $297/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,464/yr (+$122/mo · 69.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,918
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$2,105
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,753
• − Management: −$1,753
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$1,264
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$303
• After-tax cash flow: $2,268/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 11 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home requires moderate repairs and maintenance, including painting and landscaping, to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate Exterior siding — Weathered appearance
• Moderate Interior walls/paint — Worn appearance
• Moderate Landscaping — Untended appearance

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Aesthetic improvements can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both HVAC maintenance — A clean and efficient HVAC system improves comfort and energy efficiency, boosting both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exterior siding · Weathered appearance	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Interior walls/paint · Worn appearance	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Landscaping · Untended appearance	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$9,000–45,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Aesthetic improvements can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both HVAC maintenance — A clean and efficient HVAC system improves comfort and energy efficiency, boosting both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bastrop ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809570
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $56,010
• Composite: 23.87/100
• National rank: #7799
• State rank: #670 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mustang Ridge

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #854
• US rank: #15380

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,008

Population outlook (Bastrop County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,260 people
• By 2030: 101,355 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 115,578 · +22.6%
• By 2050: 129,464 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 168,068 · +78.3%
• By 2100: 194,857 · +106.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 77% Two or more races 48% White 17% Native American 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 72%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 51% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bastrop

• 2024 margin: R (+18.4) · D 40.2% · R 58.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.2pp · 2024: -18.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.4 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 14.00%
• Current HPI: 308.45
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Listed $195,000 Unlock MLS
• 2025-06-26 Listed — Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+134.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,105 · +8.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.