113 Dumler Ln · Tribes Hill, NY 12069

$175,000

5 bd · 1.0 ba · 3,029 sqft · SingleFamily · 1 Days on market

Built 1910 0.36 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Charming Country living, Minutes away from city perks. Experience the tranquility of country living with the comfort of city amenities right around the corner. This picturesque 5 bedroom home promises ample space and charm, situated on a serene dead-end street in Fort Hunter. The residence showcases original hard wood floors that echo its enduring appeal. Brave the seasons knowing the metal roof offers durability. With 1 full bath, your everyday necessities and conveniently met. Immerse yourself in the convenience of being just minutes away from grocery stores, inviting restaurants, and diverse shopping destinations. Tranquil and yet so connected, this home offers you the best of both world

Key facts

• Metal roof
• 0.36 acre lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• ORIGINAL HARD WOOD FLOORS
• METAL ROOF
• SERENE DEAD-END STREET

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage; Driveway parking (2 total spaces)
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Single family residence; Fixer condition
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Concrete perimeter foundation; Built living area approximately 3,029
• Exterior features: Deck; Above-ground pool; Wood fencing in the backyard (partial); Road frontage; Detached garage(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: One bedroom on the first level; Four bedrooms on the second level
• Flooring: Wood flooring; Carpet
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (located on the second level)
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating
• Interior features: Solid surface counters; Storm door(s); Electric fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on the main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-103 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $160k (8.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (20.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $140k (20.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#814 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A, cost of living A; Watch: schools D-, crime F, amenities F.
• Fonda-Fultonville Central School District (rural): math 52% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #228 of 590 in NY (top 39%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 210 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (168 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,991 (20.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.53%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $369,538
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
130 Main St	0.52mi	5/2.0	2,988 (-1%)	2mo	$365,000	$122	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $14,513
• Equity at exit: $78,688

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.24×
• Total profit: $60,957
• Equity at exit: $121,267

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12069

• Active inventory: 3
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,400 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$219 /mo · $2,625/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $-103

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,531

Max offer price $160,030

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-17
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-06-17
   listed $175,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,799
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,625
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,344
• − Management: −$1,344
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$4,283
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,028
• After-tax cash flow: $-214/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fonda-Fultonville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3611190
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▲ 14.00%
• Median HH income: $53,979
• Composite: 51.81/100
• National rank: #1668
• State rank: #228 of 590 in NY

Livability — Tribes Hill

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #814
• US rank: #15754

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime F Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 361
• Population (ZIP): 387

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,683 people
• By 2030: 47,785 · -1.8%
• By 2040: 45,492 · -6.6%
• By 2050: 43,161 · -11.3%
• By 2075: 38,134 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 32,337 · -33.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Black 10%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 43% Romanian 6%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.7) · D 35.6% · R 64.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: -8.1pp · 2024: -28.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.7 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+26.5 2012: R+4.4 2008: R+8.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $175,000 Global MLS