1772 S Simms Rd · Big Lake, AK 99652

$239,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,704 sqft · SingleFamily · 65 Days on market

Built 1970 Fair condition 0.45 ac lot $140/sqft · 35% below area Est $365k · 35% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks

Nestled between Birch Lake and Meadow Creek, this one-of-a-kind property offers an incredible opportunity to build equity while enjoying the Alaska lifestyle. The original structure began as a small cabin before being lifted and expanded over the years, creating a home full of character and history. While the property's full story has been lost to time, many of the original cabin features remain, adding warmth and unique charm you won't find in newer construction.

Key facts

• 0.45 acre lot
• Built 1970
• Listed 64 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $239k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-64 ($-772/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $230k (3.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (15.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $201k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.8% in Big Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#99 in AK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Big Lake Elementary (math 37% / reading 32%, grade F, #93 of 156 statewide, top 66%, 382 students, 74% FRL); Houston Middle School (329 students, 0% FRL); Houston High School (math 22% / reading 31%, grade F, #41 of 61 statewide, top 67%, 358 students, 57% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 151 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $67k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($225k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $200,926 (15.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.15%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $365,000
• List price: $239,000
• Delta: -34.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13404 W Upper Birch Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,561 (-8%)	23mo	$470,000	$301	59
1970 S Mlakar Cir	0.23mi	3/1.0	1,537 (-10%)	22mo	$355,000	$231	54
1503 S Birch Lake Dr #20	0.17mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,976 (+16%)	9mo	$549,000	$278	50
14536 W Lazy Circle Cir	1.04mi	3/2.0	1,770 (+4%)	10mo	$285,000	$161	46
13666 W Klutina Dr	1.12mi	3/2.0	1,664 (-2%)	15mo	$315,000	$189	45
474 S Davies St	1.09mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,588 (-7%)	8mo	$469,000	$295	38
1987 S Lodge Dr	0.59mi	3/3.0	1,534 (-10%)	15mo	$89,900	$59	36
519 S Davies St	1.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,588 (-7%)	14mo	$460,000	$290	33
2195 S Lodge Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,411 (-17%)	12mo	$422,000	$299	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $24,722
• Equity at exit: $107,465

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.40×
• Total profit: $93,833
• Equity at exit: $165,616

Cash invested: $66,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 6 active
• Months of supply: 36.0 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $498,750 ($267/sqft)
• Median days on market: 58 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -19.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 99652

• Active inventory: 151
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,009 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$299 /mo · $3,585/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$422
• Net cashflow: $-64

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,091

Max offer price $229,687

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $101	-5% $18	+0% $-64	+5% $-147	+10% $-230
Rent	-10% $-223	-5% $-144	+0% $-64	+5% $15	+10% $94
Rate	-1.0pp $56	-0.5pp $-4	base $-64	+0.5pp $-126	+1.0pp $-189

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,750
• Closing costs: $7,170
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1987 S Lodge Dr Unit 1 Wasilla, AK	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,700	$1.55	72d	1	0.59mi
13845 W Kluane Dr Wasilla, AK	3.0	2.0	1288	$2,495	$1.94	93d	1	1.09mi

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garageNo carport
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Residential propertySingle-family (detached)Built in 1970
• Construction: Metal roofBasement
• Exterior features: Private yardStorageMetal roofWaterfront lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wood stove
• Interior features: RefrigeratorBasementFamily roomWood stove

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $239,000 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $239,000 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $239,000 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $239,000 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $239,000 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $239,000 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   pricedays on market $239,000 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-07-29
   days on market $259,000 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-07-27
   days on market $259,000 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-07-25
    days on market $259,000 Active 51 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $259,000 Active 50 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $259,000 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $259,000 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $259,000 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $259,000 Active 44 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $259,000 Active 42 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $259,000 Active 41 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $259,000 Active 40 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $259,000 Active 39 DOM
20. 2026-07-12
    days on market $259,000 Active 38 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $259,000 Active 37 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $259,000 Active 36 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $259,000 Active 35 DOM
24. 2026-07-08
    days on market $259,000 Active 34 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $259,000 Active 33 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $259,000 Active 32 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $259,000 Active 31 DOM
28. 2026-07-04
    days on market $259,000 Active 30 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $259,000 Active 29 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $259,000 Active 28 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $259,000 Active 27 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $259,000 Active 26 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $259,000 Active 25 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $259,000 Active 24 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $259,000 Active 23 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $259,000 Active 22 DOM
37. 2026-06-25
    days on market $259,000 Active 20 DOM
38. 2026-06-23
    days on market $259,000 Active 18 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $259,000 Active 17 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $259,000 Active 14 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $259,000 Active 13 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $259,000 Active 12 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $259,000 Active 11 DOM
44. 2026-06-14
    days on market $259,000 Active 9 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $259,000 Active 8 DOM
46. 2026-06-10
    days on market $259,000 Active 6 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $259,000 Active 5 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $259,000 Active 4 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
50. 2026-06-07
    listed $259,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,111
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,388
• − Property taxes: −$3,585
• − Insurance: −$1,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,929
• − Management: −$1,929
• − Depreciation: −$6,953
• Taxable loss: −$4,867
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,168
• After-tax cash flow: $396/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $42,600–$76,680 screening

This property requires significant repairs and updates to improve its condition and increase its value. The home has potential but needs a comprehensive renovation to become move-in ready.

Repairs flagged

• Major Siding — Severe weathering and damage
• Major Landscaping — Overgrown vegetation and lack of landscaping
• Major Kitchen — No visible kitchen, only a stove and basic appliances
• Major Bathroom — No visible bathroom, only a basic layout
• Major Flooring — Worn-out flooring in visible areas
• Major Paint — Painted walls, but some areas appear chipped

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Improving the exterior will enhance both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Kitchen and bathroom renovation — Updating these spaces will significantly increase the home's value ↑
• Both Flooring replacement — Replacing worn-out flooring will improve the home's appearance and functionality ↑
• Both Painting and minor repairs — Painting and addressing minor issues will improve the home's appearance and functionality ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 30/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Big Lake Elementary F AK #93/156 Nat'l #23,081/41,679 Middle Houston Middle School High Houston High School F AK #41/61 Nat'l #12,196/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200510
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,325
• Composite: 41.38/100
• National rank: #3484
• State rank: #5 of 21 in AK

D Composite livability gradescore 58/100

Livability — Big Lake

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #99
• US rank: #20971

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime B Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Big Lake, AK
• County: Matanuska-Susitna · 126,730 people
• City population: 4,066
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• Population (ZIP): 4,066
• Household income: $71,310
• Rent vs Own: 24.8% rent · 75.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

---

Population outlook (Matanuska-Susitna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 126,730 people
• By 2030: 139,641 · +10.2%
• By 2040: 165,122 · +30.3%
• By 2050: 189,697 · +49.7%
• By 2075: 249,959 · +97.2%
• By 2100: 288,077 · +127.3%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Matanuska-Susitna

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garageNo carport
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Residential propertySingle-family (detached)Built in 1970
• Construction: Metal roofBasement
• Exterior features: Private yardStorageMetal roofWaterfront lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wood stove
• Interior features: RefrigeratorBasementFamily roomWood stove

Price history

+30.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $259,000 AKMLS
• 2022-06-21 Pending — AKMLS
• 2022-06-17 Price Changed $175,900 AKMLS
• 2022-05-23 Price Changed $176,000 AKMLS
• 2022-05-06 Price Changed $179,900 AKMLS
• 2022-04-14 Listed $180,000 AKMLS
• 2022-03-21 Listed $199,000 AKMLS