21114 Castroville Way · Cypress, TX 77433

$294,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,931 sqft · Townhouse public records · 15 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition 3,481 sqft lot 2-car garage $153/sqft · 15% below area Est $349k · 15% under $216/mo HOA · 9% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.4/15.0
• Cash flow +4.3/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Live where convenience meets community. This Bridgeland townhome offers an easy, modern layout with an open first floor built for cooking, gathering, and unwinding. Upstairs features a flexible game room, and a private primary suite with walk in closet. Step outside and enjoy everything Bridgeland is known for: resort style pools, fitness centers, lakes, trails, parks, and nonstop activities. This is turnkey living in a neighborhood that feels alive. Options available; call for details.

Key facts

• Bridgeland amenities
• Top-rated schools
• $216 HOA

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• BACKYARD FOR RELAXING
• BRIDGELAND AMENITIES
• TOP-RATED SCHOOLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $295k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-780 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $189k (36.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $239k (18.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $189k (36.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Roberts Road El (math 31% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,234 of 4,322 statewide, top 52%, 976 students, 63% FRL); Waller J H (math 21% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,279 of 1,662 statewide, top 78%, 899 students, 69% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.3%/yr); 2594 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $188,586 (36.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.34%
• DSCR: 0.50
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $348,539
• List price: $294,900
• Delta: -19.66%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12642 Blue Catfish Ln	0.50mi	3/2.5	1,906 (-1%)	2mo	$328,990	$173	73
12634 Blue Catfish Ln	0.50mi	3/2.5	1,906 (-1%)	2mo	$328,990	$173	72
12615 Blue Catfish Ln	0.51mi	3/2.5	1,897 (-2%)	2mo	$333,990	$176	71
12514 Alligator Lake Ct	0.55mi	3/2.5	1,906 (-1%)	1mo	$286,990	$151	71
12602 Blue Catfish Ln	0.53mi	3/2.5	1,906 (-1%)	2mo	$328,990	$173	71
12610 Blue Catfish Ln	0.53mi	3/2.5	1,906 (-1%)	3mo	$328,990	$173	71
12638 Blue Catfish Ln	0.50mi	3/2.5	1,828 (-5%)	2mo	$332,990	$182	66
12654 Blue Catfish Ln	0.49mi	3/2.5	1,828 (-5%)	3mo	$332,990	$182	66
12603 Blue Catfish Ln	0.52mi	3/2.5	1,828 (-5%)	2mo	$330,990	$181	65
12502 Alligator Lake Ct	0.56mi	3/2.5	1,828 (-5%)	0mo	$342,990	$188	65
12518 Alligator Lake Ct	0.54mi	3/2.5	1,828 (-5%)	1mo	$332,990	$182	65
12614 Blue Catfish Ln	0.52mi	3/2.5	1,828 (-5%)	3mo	$332,990	$182	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -41.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.26×
• Total profit: $-104,084
• Equity at exit: $43,971

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.18×
• Total profit: $-180,021
• Equity at exit: $25,498

Cash invested: $82,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Seller's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 11 active · 3 under contract
• Months of supply: 2.5 mo (39%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $299,990 ($156/sqft)
• Median days on market: 10 d
• This list price: 45% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +15.5% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77433

• Home prices YoY: -28.5%
• Rents YoY: -1.3%
• Active inventory: 2594
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,393 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,546
• Tax from tax record: −$786 /mo · $9,429/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$216
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$503
• Net cashflow: $-780

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,381

Max offer price $188,586

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-614	-5% $-697	+0% $-780	+5% $-864	+10% $-947
Rent	-10% $-970	-5% $-875	+0% $-780	+5% $-686	+10% $-591
Rate	-1.0pp $-632	-0.5pp $-705	base $-780	+0.5pp $-857	+1.0pp $-935

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,725
• Closing costs: $8,847
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12946 Rio Mariano Ln Cypress, TX	3.0	2.5	1748	$2,199	$1.26	16d	1	0.07mi
21121 Doubtful Canyon Dr Cypress, TX	3.0	3.0	1828	$2,500	$1.37	17d	1	0.35mi
21234 Black Gap Wildlife Dr , TX	3.0	2.5	1865	$2,500	$1.34	92d	1	0.36mi
21158 Staked Plains Dr Cypress, TX	4.0	2.5	2003	$2,495	$1.25	16d	1	0.40mi
12519 Ja Ranch Ct Cypress, TX	4.0	2.0	1521	$2,400	$1.58	73d	1	0.41mi
21106 Armstrong County Dr Cypress, TX	4.0	2.5	2384	$3,099	$1.30	20d	1	0.45mi
12623 Blue Catfish Ln Cypress, TX	3.0	2.5	1906	$2,350	$1.23	54d	1	0.52mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Bridgeland/Creekland Village HOAAnnual HOA fee of $2,590

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential property2 storiesBuilt in 2023Slab foundation
• Construction: Cement sidingStone exteriorComposition roof
• Exterior features: Private yardFenced yardCommunity pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Breakfast barOpen to family roomPots & pan drawersKitchen/dining combo
• Bedrooms: 5 total rooms (includes bedrooms and other rooms)
• Flooring: CarpetLaminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central air conditioning (gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast barKitchen/family room comboPrimary bedroom with private bathPots & pan drawersKitchen/dining combo

HOA detail $216/mo · $2,592/yr

• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $294,900 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $294,900 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $294,900 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $294,900 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $294,900 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $294,900 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $294,900 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $294,900 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   pricedays on marketlisting id $294,900 Active 2 DOM
10. 2025-12-22
    historical
11. 2025-12-22
    listed $280,000 Active 491-char remark
12. 2025-12-11
    listed $280,000 Active
13. 2025-11-25
    historical
14. 2025-10-16
    price $280,000
15. 2025-10-03
    listed $300,000 Active
16. 2024-01-05
    soldstatus
17. 2023-12-06
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,429 · $786/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,429 · $786/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,719
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,519
• − Property taxes: −$9,429
• − Insurance: −$1,474
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,298
• − Management: −$2,298
• − HOA: −$2,592
• − Depreciation: −$8,579
• Taxable loss: −$14,470
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,473
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,893/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,655–$28,965 screening

This turnkey home in Bridgeland is in good condition with a modern kitchen and well-maintained exterior. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for modest updates to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring with a more modern style — New flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and appealing to potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern, high-end appliances can significantly boost the home's value and attract more buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and add value to the home. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 30/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Roberts Road El F TX #2,234/4,322 Nat'l #24,773/41,679 Middle Waller J H F TX #1,279/1,662 Nat'l #10,474/14,009 High Waller H S F TX #1,029/1,632 Nat'l #10,333/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cypress

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 212,884
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 116,550
• Household income: $143,934
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Hispanic / Latino 27% Black 17% Two or more races 14% Asian 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 4% Vietnamese 4%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.83%
• Current HPI: 220.2136
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.27%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Bridgeland/Creekland Village HOAAnnual HOA fee of $2,590

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential property2 storiesBuilt in 2023Slab foundation
• Construction: Cement sidingStone exteriorComposition roof
• Exterior features: Private yardFenced yardCommunity pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Breakfast barOpen to family roomPots & pan drawersKitchen/dining combo
• Bedrooms: 5 total rooms (includes bedrooms and other rooms)
• Flooring: CarpetLaminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central air conditioning (gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast barKitchen/family room comboPrimary bedroom with private bathPots & pan drawersKitchen/dining combo

Price history

-1.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-07-24 Listed $294,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-12-22 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-12-22 Listed $280,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-11 Listed $280,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-25 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $280,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-03 Listed $300,000 HARMLS
• 2024-01-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-12-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+149.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,429 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.