1869 Arbor Dr · Forney, TX 75126

$330,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,534 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 2021 9,988 sqft lot $130/sqft · 16% below area Est $391k · 16% under $75/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Experience modern luxury in this stunning 2021 Tri-Pointe masterpiece located in a premier community in Forney, Texas! This 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath retreat offers 2,534 sq. ft. of thoughtfully upgraded living space designed for both style and high-functionality. Step inside to find rich wood floors, elegant 6-inch trim, and sun-drenched interiors featuring custom white plantation shutters throughout. The versatile front flex room is a dream for a home office or game room, while the chef-inspired kitchen steals the show with an oversized quartz island, sleek black cabinetry, and a designer chevron tile backsplash—perfect for hosting! Upstairs, the massive loft boasts a custom two-person wo

Key facts

• Massive loft
• Rich wood floors
• Front flex room

Tags

• RICH WOOD FLOORS
• FRONT FLEX ROOM
• CHEF-INSPIRED KITCHEN
• OVERSIZED QUARTZ ISLAND
• MASSIVE LOFT
• CUSTOM TWO-PERSON WORKSTATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No horse permitted; No subdivision planned
• Financial info: Treat as clear loan type; No second mortgage indicated
• HOA & community: Mandatory association; Quarterly HOA fee of 225; Association fee includes full use of facilities; HOA managed by Gateway Parks CMCC

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Attached property; Two levels; Preowned (built in 2021)
• Construction: Brick construction; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Front porch; Patio; No easements noted; Lot under 0.5 acre (approximately 0.23 acres)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on level 1
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom (total 3 bathrooms)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Ceiling fans for cooling
• Interior features: Kitchen island; Two living areas; One dining area; Six total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $330k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-443 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $252k (23.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $275k (16.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $252k (23.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#98 in TX, #3,339 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Willett El (725 students, 32% FRL); Warren Middle (math 43% / reading 50%, grade D+, #443 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 903 students, 26% FRL); Forney H S (math 64% / reading 58%, grade C+, #258 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 2,272 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools at 28% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 2200 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($104k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $251,809 (23.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.75%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $391,208
• List price: $330,000
• Delta: 2.25%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1508 Bushman Ln	0.29mi	4/3.0	2,474 (-2%)	2mo	$389,000	$157	79
1821 Bachman Ln	0.33mi	4/3.0	2,474 (-2%)	2mo	$375,000	$152	77
1817 Lockhart Dr	0.21mi	4/3.0	2,322 (-8%)	1mo	$372,400	$160	73
1510 Bushman Ln	0.30mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,389 (-6%)	2mo	$359,000	$150	70
1328 Parkdale St	0.35mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,389 (-6%)	1mo	$389,000	$163	68
1522 Bushman Ln	0.35mi	5/4.0 (+1)	2,612 (+3%)	1mo	$425,000	$163	67
1330 Parkdale St	0.34mi	5/4.0 (+1)	2,612 (+3%)	2mo	$427,000	$163	66
1817 Bachman Ln	0.35mi	4/3.0	2,243 (-12%)	0mo	$427,000	$190	62
1526 Bushman Ln	0.37mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,237 (-12%)	2mo	$405,000	$181	57
1811 Bachman Ln	0.38mi	4/3.5	2,878 (+14%)	1mo	$435,000	$151	55
1934 Sand Springs St	0.72mi	4/3.5	2,698 (+6%)	1mo	$385,000	$143	51
1276 Meridian Dr	0.61mi	4/3.0	2,162 (-15%)	0mo	$315,000	$146	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-85,725
• Equity at exit: $49,204

10-year hold

• IRR: -35.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.38×
• Total profit: $-127,063
• Equity at exit: $28,532

Cash invested: $92,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75126

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 2200
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,752 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,731
• Tax from tax record: −$674 /mo · $8,087/yr
• Insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$578
• Net cashflow: $-443

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,313

Max offer price $251,809

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-256	-5% $-349	+0% $-443	+5% $-536	+10% $-629
Rent	-10% $-660	-5% $-551	+0% $-443	+5% $-334	+10% $-225
Rate	-1.0pp $-276	-0.5pp $-359	base $-443	+0.5pp $-528	+1.0pp $-615

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,500
• Closing costs: $9,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1816 Pueblo St Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2204	$2,350	$1.07	45d	1	0.04mi
1820 Pueblo St Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1900	$2,245	$1.18	45d	1	0.05mi
1829 Pueblo St Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,250	$1.23	1d	1	0.08mi
1832 Pueblo St Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	2060	$2,090	$1.01	4d	1	0.10mi
1848 McCree St Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1935	$2,450	$1.27	45d	1	0.10mi
1888 Everglades Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1961	$3,235	$1.65	9d	1	0.10mi
1836 Big Spring Dr Forney, TX	5.0	3.0	2680	$2,900	$1.08	45d	1	0.11mi
1874 Purtis Creek Dr Forney, TX	5.0	3.0	2212	$3,099	$1.40	20d	1	0.14mi
1869 Lockhart Dr Forney, TX	5.0	3.0	2300	$3,299	$1.43	1d	1	0.17mi
1876 Lockhart Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2058	$2,950	$1.43	45d	1	0.19mi
1284 Caprock Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2982	$3,300	$1.11	26d	1	0.22mi
1836 Lockhart Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1900	$2,450	$1.29	1d	1	0.23mi
1817 Lockhart Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2331	$2,950	$1.27	9d	1	0.23mi
1312 Caprock Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2890	$3,400	$1.18	45d	1	0.23mi
1273 Palmetto Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	3370	$3,000	$0.89	45d	1	0.24mi
1736 Everglades Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	2333	$2,650	$1.14	45d	1	0.33mi
1926 Honey Creek Rd Forney, TX	4.0	4.5	2874	$3,000	$1.04	45d	1	0.49mi
1665 Sheldon Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.5	2907	$3,200	$1.10	14d	1	0.51mi
1644 Pegasus Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2810	$2,795	$0.99	45d	1	0.57mi
1304 Meridian Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2037	$2,269	$1.11	18d	1	0.60mi
1840 Sandlin Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2717	$2,566	$0.94	9d	1	0.60mi
1832 Sandlin Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	2058	$2,400	$1.17	45d	1	0.63mi
1260 Meridian Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1960	$2,200	$1.12	4d	1	0.64mi
1825 Sandlin Dr Forney, TX	5.0	3.0	2306	$2,450	$1.06	45d	1	0.66mi
1822 Sandlin Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2338	$2,076	$0.89	9d	1	0.68mi
1822 Sandlin Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2338	$2,010	$0.86	1d	1	0.68mi
1818 Sandlin Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	2060	$2,115	$1.03	1d	1	0.70mi
1581 Ferguson Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1922	$2,200	$1.14	1d	1	0.73mi
1593 Kessler Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1868	$2,349	$1.26	1d	1	0.74mi
1804 Sandlin Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2338	$2,151	$0.92	22d	1	0.76mi
1633 Glacier Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2698	$3,000	$1.11	9d	1	0.78mi
1557 Wyler Dr Unit 1557 Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2064	$2,850	$1.38	45d	1	0.81mi
1553 Sugarberry Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2348	$2,900	$1.24	17d	1	0.82mi
1560 Seminole Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2020	$2,400	$1.19	14d	1	0.83mi
1210 Lambert Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2338	$2,695	$1.15	26d	1	0.95mi
1282 Herring Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2344	$2,995	$1.28	26d	1	0.99mi
1257 Herring Dr Forney, TX	5.0	4.5	3131	$3,795	$1.21	22d	1	0.99mi
1253 Herring Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1906	$2,350	$1.23	45d	1	0.99mi
1237 Herring Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2338	$2,400	$1.03	45d	1	1.00mi
1213 Herring Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1876	$2,150	$1.15	9d	1	1.00mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $330,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $330,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $330,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $330,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $330,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $330,000 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on marketlisting id $330,000 Active 1 DOM
8. 2026-04-08
   price $399,999 1608-char remark
9. 2026-03-30
   price $405,650 1608-char remark
10. 2026-02-05
    listed $414,999 Active 1608-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,087 · $674/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,087 · $674/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,029
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,485
• − Property taxes: −$8,087
• − Insurance: −$1,650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,642
• − Management: −$2,642
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$9,600
• Taxable loss: −$10,978
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,635
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,677/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819560
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $86,679
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3812
• State rank: #234 of 826 in TX

Livability — Forney

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #3339

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Forney, TX
• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• City population: 84,799
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,799
• Household income: $103,673
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1306.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 148.5749
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-20.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $330,000 NTREIS
• 2026-05-29 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $399,999 NTREIS
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $405,650 NTREIS
• 2026-02-05 Listed $414,999 NTREIS

Property tax history

+47.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,087 · -1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.