5882 Lakeside Dr · Gladwin, MI 48624

$154,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 744 sqft · SingleFamily · 16 Days on market

0.25 ac lot Est $115k · 35% over · waterfront

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.8/30.0
• DSCR +9.8/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Escape to the tranquility of this inviting 2-bedroom, 1-bath cottage nestled on a peaceful lake that has excellent year-round fishing and quiet atmosphere. A spectacular family room addition serves as the heart of the home, featuring a soaring knotty pine vaulted ceiling and double sliding glass doors that open to a spacious covered deck overlooking the water. Relax and enjoy breathtaking lake views, morning coffee, or evening sunsets from this exceptional outdoor living space. Nice size lot with a cement patio right out side the kitchen. As well as a shed to store your equipment. The open-concept kitchen and dining area create a welcoming gathering place and connect seamlessly to the famil

Key facts

• Quiet dead end road
• Cement patio
• 0.25 acre lot

Tags

• KNOTTY PINE VAULTED CEILING
• COVERED DECK OVERLOOKING WATER
• BREATHTAKING LAKE VIEWS
• CEMENT PATIO
• QUIET DEAD END ROAD
• SAFE FRIENDLY SETTING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association fee applies (optional fee schedule)

Exterior

• Utilities: Private well water; Septic system; Electric heat fuel
• Home design: Single-story residential home; Located in McGilvery Lake Subdivision, Gladwin
• Construction: Year built not specified
• Exterior features: Waterfront property with water frontage; Vinyl siding and vinyl trim; Crawl foundation

Interior

• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the main level (each approximately 9 x 9)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating
• Interior features: 6 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $154k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $473 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $154k).
• Recommended offer: $152k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 7.7% in Gladwin — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#253 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Gladwin Community Schools (town): math 28% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #232 of 540 in MI (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Gladwin Elementary School (379 students, 67% FRL); Gladwin Junior High School (math 33% / reading 55%, grade D, #173 of 493 statewide, top 36%, 339 students, 59% FRL); Gladwin High School (math 17% / reading 47%, grade F, #405 of 713 statewide, top 59%, 495 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 289 active listings in the ZIP; 90 units permitted in Gladwin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gladwin County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($152k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $152,182 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
3. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
4. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
5. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.12%
• DSCR: 1.58
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $114,502
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5768 Lakeside Dr	0.21mi	2/1.5	700 (-6%)	17mo	$80,000	$114	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $5,019
• Equity at exit: $23,036

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.99×
• Total profit: $42,886
• Equity at exit: $13,358

Cash invested: $43,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48624

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Active inventory: 289
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,758 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$810
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $496/yr
• Insurance: −$64
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $473

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,159

Max offer price $154,500

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $560	-5% $517	+0% $473	+5% $429	+10% $385
Rent	-10% $334	-5% $403	+0% $473	+5% $542	+10% $612
Rate	-1.0pp $551	-0.5pp $512	base $473	+0.5pp $433	+1.0pp $392

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,625
• Closing costs: $4,635
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $154,500 Pending 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $154,500 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $154,500 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $154,500 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $154,500 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $154,500 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $154,500 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $154,500 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $154,500 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $154,500 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-05-25
    listed $154,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $496 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,438 · $120/mo
• Expected delta: +$942/yr (+$78/mo · 189.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,097
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,654
• − Property taxes: −$496
• − Insurance: −$772
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,688
• − Management: −$1,688
• − Depreciation: −$4,495
• Taxable income: $3,304
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$793
• After-tax cash flow: $4,882/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gladwin Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2615990
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $38,917
• Composite: 32.93/100
• National rank: #5595
• State rank: #232 of 540 in MI

Livability — Gladwin

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #253
• US rank: #6296

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 16,269

Population outlook (Gladwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,440 people
• By 2030: 22,281 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 19,867 · -15.2%
• By 2050: 17,667 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 12,909 · -44.9%
• By 2100: 8,629 · -63.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · German/W. Germanic 4% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gladwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.7) · D 29.1% · R 69.8% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -42.2pp toward R · 2008: 1.5pp · 2024: -40.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.7 2020: R+36.8 2016: R+34.7 2012: R+7.2 2008: D+1.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.67%
• Current HPI: 238.0744
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-25 Listed $154,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $496 · -42.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.