1018 Birch Dr · Lexington-Fayette, KY 40511

$200,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,225 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1958 6,438 sqft lot Est $265k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great place to start, invest or downsize. Updates include roof, HVAC, water heater, and new walk-in shower and all new flooring throughout. Conveniently located to shopping, medical facilities, and easy acess to all areas of Lexington. This home has been gently cared for by the same owner for the past almost 38 years. The back patio is covered and secluded. The corner fireplace in the family room adds to the charm of this home.

Key facts

• 6,438 sq ft lot
• Built 1958

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: House; One story
• Construction: Aluminum siding and brick veneer exterior; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built area approximately 1,225
• Exterior features: Few trees; Neighborhood view; Chain-link fence

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Range
• Bedrooms: 6 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Storm windows; Fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $298 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $191k (4.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $191k (4.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 3.8% in Lexington-Fayette — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fayette County (urban): math 35% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #27 of 165 in KY (top 16%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Coventry Oak Elementary (math 19% / reading 25%, grade F, #525 of 676 statewide, top 82%, 674 students, 60% FRL); Winburn Middle School (math 26% / reading 36%, grade F, #138 of 217 statewide, top 65%, 800 students, 66% FRL); Bryan Station High School (math 18% / reading 25%, grade F, #209 of 254 statewide, top 82%, 1,893 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 44% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 25% at this address vs 40% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fayette County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 203 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,036 units permitted in Fayette County in 2024 (542 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fayette County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $191,249 (4.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.39%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $264,600
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1936 Sandersville Rd	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,239 (+1%)	3mo	$274,900	$222	80
1945 Sandersville Rd	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-2%)	8mo	$217,000	$181	76
1865 Arbor Station Way	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-2%)	6mo	$260,000	$217	73
2033 Polk Ln	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+2%)	6mo	$270,000	$216	72
1673 Konner Woods Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,212 (-1%)	12mo	$269,900	$223	72
2453 Prescott Ln	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,253 (+2%)	9mo	$268,500	$214	69
2408 Prescott Ln	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,222 (-0%)	10mo	$290,000	$237	68
1672 Konner Woods Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,320 (+8%)	5mo	$280,000	$212	68
2213 Sonoma Pl	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,222 (-0%)	14mo	$265,000	$217	65
1033 Hudson Ave	0.12mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,344 (+10%)	14mo	$180,000	$134	62
1972 Alice Dr	0.42mi	3/1.0	1,325 (+8%)	9mo	$195,000	$147	59
2268 Remington Way	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,304 (+6%)	11mo	$270,000	$207	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.94% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-11,665
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $21,630
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40511

• Home prices YoY: -26.9%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 203
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,912 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$80 /mo · $966/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $298

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,535

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $411	-5% $355	+0% $298	+5% $242	+10% $185
Rent	-10% $147	-5% $223	+0% $298	+5% $374	+10% $449
Rate	-1.0pp $399	-0.5pp $349	base $298	+0.5pp $246	+1.0pp $194

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1072 Hudson Ave Lexington, KY	3.0	1.0	1010	$1,450	$1.44	15d	1	0.24mi
1024 Greendale Rd Lexington, KY	2.0–3.0	2.0	1307	$1,765	$1.35	24d	4	0.77mi
2605 Hailey Rose Way Lexington, KY	3.0	2.0	1336	$2,100	$1.57	15d	1	0.86mi
2645 Hailey Rose Way Lexington, KY	3.0	2.0	1360	$2,000	$1.47	24d	1	0.87mi
1460 Greendale Rd Lexington, KY	4.0	1.5	1245	$1,550	$1.24	15d	1	1.16mi
2752 Golden Rod Ln Lexington, KY	3.0	2.0	1373	$1,995	$1.45	24d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-31
   status $200,000 Pending 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $966 · $80/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,720 · $143/mo
• Expected delta: +$754/yr (+$63/mo · 78.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,950
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$966
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,836
• − Management: −$1,836
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $291
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$70
• After-tax cash flow: $3,509/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fayette County
• NCES district ID: 2101860
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $49,245
• Composite: 34.38/100
• National rank: #5211
• State rank: #27 of 165 in KY

Livability — Lexington-Fayette

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lexington-Fayette, KY
• County: Fayette County · 317,143 people
• City population: 321,882
• Metro: Lexington-Fayette, KY
• Population (ZIP): 38,176
• Household income: $79,540
• Rent vs Own: 38.9% rent · 61.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1195.0

Population outlook (Fayette County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 363,454 people
• By 2030: 388,270 · +6.8%
• By 2040: 438,688 · +20.7%
• By 2050: 490,667 · +35.0%
• By 2075: 625,394 · +72.1%
• By 2100: 721,354 · +98.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 26% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 12% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, India
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 15% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Fayette

• 2024 margin: D (+18.1) · D 58.0% · R 39.9% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +13.3pp toward D · 2008: 4.8pp · 2024: 18.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.1 2020: D+20.8 2016: D+9.5 2012: D+1.0 2008: D+4.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -91.18%
• Current HPI: 247.0959
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.94%
• Metro: Lexington-Fayette, KY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Pending — ImagineMLS
• 2026-05-29 Listed $200,000 ImagineMLS

Property tax history

-11.7%/yr

Latest (2015): $966 · -11.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.