1209 Hawk Dr · Horseshoe Bend, AR 72512

$49,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 952 sqft · Manufactured public records · 155 Days on market

0.90 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Experience park-like living in this well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home set on almost an acre. Step inside to a welcoming living room with brand-new flooring (and extra materials ready to complete the look). The home features a cozy wood stove for those cool evenings, along with a wall-mounted gas heater for reliable backup warmth. The spacious kitchen boasts new appliances, ample cabinetry, and a reverse osmosis water system for fresh, clean drinking water. You'll love the dedicated laundry area, thoughtfully designed for practicality, and the home's exceptionally low utility bills, thanks to energy-efficient systems. The property includes two outbuildings—ideal for storage, hobbies, or a workshop

Key facts

• Wood stove
• Gas heater
• New flooring

Tags

• NEW FLOORING
• WOOD STOVE
• GAS HEATER
• NEW APPLIANCES
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY AREA
• LOW UTILITY BILLS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Financing available: conventional loan, cash, or in-house financing

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car parking
• Utilities: Public sewer; Public water; Propane/butane gas; Satellite TV
• Home design: Mobile home; Single-story entry
• Construction: Metal/vinyl siding; Metal roof; Crawl space foundation; Built as a mobile unit
• Exterior features: Patio; Porch; Level lot; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Dishwasher
• Flooring: Wood flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Window air conditioning units; Central heat with wood-burning option
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Washer connection; Electric dryer connection; Wood-burning stove fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer connection; Electric dryer connection

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $651 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.0% vs local median 6.1% in Horseshoe Bend — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#183 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Izard CountyConsolidated School District (rural): math 27% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #171 of 238 in AR (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 442 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Izard County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Izard County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 155 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $15k; list at $50k implies a 233% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $43,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 155 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 55.95%
• DSCR: 3.49
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $27,608
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1301 & 1303 Raven Ln	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,004 (+6%)	6mo	$23,500	$23	79
1101 N Bend Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,040 (+9%)	4mo	$32,500	$31	60
1300 Ridge	0.45mi	3/2.0 (+1)	980 (+3%)	17mo	$28,000	$29	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 54.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.39×
• Total profit: $33,423
• Equity at exit: $7,440

10-year hold

• IRR: 59.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.91×
• Total profit: $82,606
• Equity at exit: $4,314

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72512

• Home prices YoY: -8.3%
• Active inventory: 442
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,261 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $748/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $651

Break-even live

Break-even rent $437

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 43%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $49,900 Active 155 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,900 Active 154 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,900 Active 153 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,900 Active 152 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,900 Active 151 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $49,900 Active 149 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,900 Active 148 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,900 Active 145 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $49,900 Active 144 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,900 Active 143 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $49,900 Active 139 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,900 Active 138 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,900 Active 137 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,900 Active 136 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,900 Active 135 DOM
16. 2026-04-19
    price $49,900
17. 2026-04-18
    price $49,900 729-char remark

    Show marketing remark (729 chars)

    Experience park-like living in this well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home set on almost an acre. Step inside to a welcoming living room with brand-new flooring (and extra materials ready to complete the look). The home features a cozy wood stove for those cool evenings, along with a wall-mounted gas heater for reliable backup warmth. The spacious kitchen boasts new appliances, ample cabinetry, and a reverse osmosis water system for fresh, clean drinking water. You'll love the dedicated laundry area, thoughtfully designed for practicality, and the home's exceptionally low utility bills, thanks to energy-efficient systems. The property includes two outbuildings—ideal for storage, hobbies, or a workshop

18. 2026-01-15
    listed $59,900 Active 729-char remark

    Show marketing remark (729 chars)

    Experience park-like living in this well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home set on almost an acre. Step inside to a welcoming living room with brand-new flooring (and extra materials ready to complete the look). The home features a cozy wood stove for those cool evenings, along with a wall-mounted gas heater for reliable backup warmth. The spacious kitchen boasts new appliances, ample cabinetry, and a reverse osmosis water system for fresh, clean drinking water. You'll love the dedicated laundry area, thoughtfully designed for practicality, and the home's exceptionally low utility bills, thanks to energy-efficient systems. The property includes two outbuildings—ideal for storage, hobbies, or a workshop

19. 2026-01-14
    listed $59,900 New Listing
20. 2021-10-04
    soldstatus $15,000 486-char remark

    Show marketing remark (486 chars)

    Looking for a weekend get away or home. Affordable two bedroom and two bath mobile home. It has newer metal roof and two outside storage sheds for extra storage. It comes with three extra lots located behind the home for privacy and to watch the wildlife. It also has a nice garden spot. Refrigerator, washer and dryer stay. It has a surface range and double built in ovens and dishwasher. Most of the furniture will convey with the property. Come see it today. Call for an appointment.

21. 2021-10-04
    soldstatus $15,000 Sold

    Show marketing remark (486 chars)

    Looking for a weekend get away or home. Affordable two bedroom and two bath mobile home. It has newer metal roof and two outside storage sheds for extra storage. It comes with three extra lots located behind the home for privacy and to watch the wildlife. It also has a nice garden spot. Refrigerator, washer and dryer stay. It has a surface range and double built in ovens and dishwasher. Most of the furniture will convey with the property. Come see it today. Call for an appointment.

22. 2021-10-04
    listed $19,900 486-char remark

    Show marketing remark (486 chars)

    Looking for a weekend get away or home. Affordable two bedroom and two bath mobile home. It has newer metal roof and two outside storage sheds for extra storage. It comes with three extra lots located behind the home for privacy and to watch the wildlife. It also has a nice garden spot. Refrigerator, washer and dryer stay. It has a surface range and double built in ovens and dishwasher. Most of the furniture will convey with the property. Come see it today. Call for an appointment.

23. 2021-09-16
    status Under Contract
24. 2021-09-08
    listed $19,900 New Listing
25. 2001-02-01
    soldstatus $19,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,133
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$748
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,211
• − Management: −$1,211
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $7,467
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,792
• After-tax cash flow: $6,025/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Izard CountyConsolidated School District
• NCES district ID: 0500021
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $30,245
• Composite: 22.66/100
• National rank: #8047
• State rank: #171 of 238 in AR

Livability — Horseshoe Bend

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #183
• US rank: #14584

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Horseshoe Bend, AR
• City population: 2,458
• Population (ZIP): 2,458

Population outlook (Izard County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,018 people
• By 2030: 12,761 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 12,331 · -5.3%
• By 2050: 12,041 · -7.5%
• By 2075: 11,516 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 10,549 · -19.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Izard

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.9) · D 16.0% · R 81.9% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.1pp toward R · 2008: -26.9pp · 2024: -65.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.9 2020: R+62.1 2016: R+54.3 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+26.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.58%
• Current HPI: 184.0807
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+162.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-19 Price Changed $49,900 CARMLS
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $49,900 Batesville
• 2026-01-15 Listed $59,900 Batesville
• 2026-01-14 Listed $59,900 CARMLS
• 2021-10-04 Listed $19,900 Batesville
• 2021-10-04 Sold (MLS) $15,000 CARMLS
• 2021-10-04 Sold (MLS) $15,000 Batesville
• 2021-09-16 Pending — CARMLS
• 2021-09-08 Listed $19,900 CARMLS
• 2001-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $19,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $46 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.