Plan 1470 Plan · Menifee, CA 92596

$538,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,470 sqft · SingleFamily · 107 Days on market

↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.1/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Spacious great room * Walk-in closet at primary bath * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Kitchen USB charging receptacle * Water-efficient front yard landscaping * White thermofoil cabinets with brushed satin nickel pulls * Kitchen island * 2-panel interior doors * Granite kitchen countertops * Solar energy system * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Near local schools * Close to medical facilities * Near entertainment and leisure * Outdoor recreation nearby * Close to family friendly parks * Hiking trails nearby

Key facts

• Solar energy system
• Kitchen island
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• WALK-IN CLOSET AT PRIMARY BATH
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• GRANITE KITCHEN COUNTERTOPS
• SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEM
• WATERSENSE LABELED FAUCETS
• ENERGY STAR CERTIFIED HOME

🏗️ New construction. The $538,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $579,650.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $539k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $422k (21.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $369k (31.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $369k (31.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#407 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D, commute F.
• Menifee Union Elementary (suburban): math 43% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #434 of 1,400 in CA (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Southshore Elementary (874 students, 52% FRL); Bell Mountain Middle (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #277 of 498 statewide, top 73%, 1,097 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 32% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-25 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Menifee Union Elementary average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 353 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($133k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $62k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $58k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$100k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($490k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $368,930 (31.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.07%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 13.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $579,650
• List price: $538,990
• Delta: -7.01%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
31313 Burflower Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,576 (+7%)	1mo	$596,610	$379	80
31361 Burflower Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,576 (+7%)	0mo	$594,990	$378	79
31143 London Plane Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,352 (-8%)	0mo	$564,060	$417	78
31095 London Plane Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,352 (-8%)	1mo	$564,490	$418	76
31147 Southern Oak Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,352 (-8%)	3mo	$564,990	$418	75
31188 Southern Oak Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,352 (-8%)	3mo	$565,000	$418	74
30192 Southern Oak Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,352 (-8%)	3mo	$573,185	$424	73
31443 Water Oak Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,576 (+7%)	3mo	$609,665	$387	73
31195 Southern Oak Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,352 (-8%)	6mo	$559,990	$414	72
31382 Water Oak Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,576 (+7%)	5mo	$590,000	$374	72
31430 Water Oak Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,576 (+7%)	4mo	$594,830	$377	72
31236 Southern Oak Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,352 (-8%)	7mo	$539,990	$399	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.45×
• Total profit: $235,432
• Equity at exit: $522,195

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.49×
• Total profit: $728,718
• Equity at exit: $1,126,132

Cash invested: $162,302 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92596

• Home prices YoY: 3.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 353
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,689 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,040
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$725 /mo · $8,695/yr
• Insurance: −$242
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$775
• Net cashflow: $-1,091

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,071

Max offer price $421,740

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-691	-5% $-891	+0% $-1,091	+5% $-1,292	+10% $-1,492
Rent	-10% $-1,383	-5% $-1,237	+0% $-1,091	+5% $-946	+10% $-800
Rate	-1.0pp $-799	-0.5pp $-944	base $-1,091	+0.5pp $-1,241	+1.0pp $-1,394

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $144,913
• Closing costs: $17,390
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
31058 Water Beech Dr Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1705	$3,900	$2.29	4d	1	0.27mi
31319 Autumn Blaze Dr Winchester, CA	3.0	2.0	1576	$3,350	$2.13	0d	1	0.30mi
Autumn Blaze Dr , CA	3.0	2.0	1576	$3,075	$1.95	4d	1	0.37mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $538,990 Active 107 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $538,990 Active 104 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $538,990 Active 103 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $538,990 Active 102 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $538,990 Active 101 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $538,990 Active 99 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $538,990 Active 95 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $538,990 Active 94 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $538,990 Active 93 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $538,990 Active 90 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $538,990 Active 89 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $538,990 Active 88 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $538,990 Active 87 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $538,990 Active 86 DOM
15. 2026-04-09
    price $538,990 591-char remark

    Show marketing remark (591 chars)

    * Spacious great room * Walk-in closet at primary bath * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Kitchen USB charging receptacle * Water-efficient front yard landscaping * White thermofoil cabinets with brushed satin nickel pulls * Kitchen island * 2-panel interior doors * Granite kitchen countertops * Solar energy system * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Near local schools * Close to medical facilities * Near entertainment and leisure * Outdoor recreation nearby * Close to family friendly parks * Hiking trails nearby

16. 2026-03-06
    listed $558,990 Active 591-char remark

    Show marketing remark (591 chars)

    * Spacious great room * Walk-in closet at primary bath * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Kitchen USB charging receptacle * Water-efficient front yard landscaping * White thermofoil cabinets with brushed satin nickel pulls * Kitchen island * 2-panel interior doors * Granite kitchen countertops * Solar energy system * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Near local schools * Close to medical facilities * Near entertainment and leisure * Outdoor recreation nearby * Close to family friendly parks * Hiking trails nearby

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,272
• − Mortgage interest: −$32,469
• − Property taxes: −$8,695
• − Insurance: −$2,898
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,542
• − Management: −$3,542
• − Depreciation: −$16,863
• Taxable loss: −$23,737
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,697
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,399/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Menifee Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0624540
• Math proficiency: 43% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $58,228
• Composite: 45.17/100
• National rank: #5790
• State rank: #434 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Menifee

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #407
• US rank: #13882

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• City population: 111,667
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 38,981
• Household income: $132,538
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 591.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 16% Asian 12% Black 6% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Tagalog/Filipino 4% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.43%
• Current HPI: 332.169
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.79%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-3.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $538,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-06 Listed $558,990 Zillow