2811 Orange Grove Rd · Village of Clarkston, MI 48329

$139,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,023 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1925 0.39 ac lot $137/sqft · 49% below area Est $275k · 49% under $8/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tucked away on the north end of desirable Williams Lake, this ranch home offers a rare opportunity in a location filled with potential. Situated on a large corner lot just across the street from the lake, the property includes private lake access nearby for enjoying all that Williams Lake has to offer. The home features over 1,000 sq ft with 2 bedrooms and 1 full bathroom. Whether you are looking for a project home, investment opportunity, future building site, or a chance to bring new life to an existing property, there are many possibilities here. The detached garage is in need of repair and the home will require TLC, but the setting and lot size create strong upside potential. Convenient North Waterford location close to shopping, dining, parks, and major commuting routes. Property is being sold as-is. Home comes with lake access on an out lot across from home. Multiple offers received all offers are due by Sunday at 4:00 pm. Please allow up to 24 hours for response.

Key facts

• Large corner lot
• Private lake access
• Detached garage

Tags

• PRIVATE LAKE ACCESS
• LARGE CORNER LOT
• DETACHED GARAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lake privileges via Williams Lake; Pets allowed
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $90 (about $7.50/month)

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (approximately 1.5 car capacity)
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level; Ground-level entry with steps; Aluminum siding; Asphalt roof
• Construction: Aluminum siding construction; Asphalt roof; Partial unfinished basement
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Lake privileges (Williams Lake); Paved road access; Lot dimensions approximately 82 x 154 x 111 x 174

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing electric oven; Free-standing refrigerator; Dishwasher not listed
• Bedrooms: Total of 5 rooms (includes bedrooms and living areas)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (oil); No central cooling
• Interior features: Lighting; Partial unfinished basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Forced air heating (oil-fired)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $450 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 3.9% in Village of Clarkston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#98 in MI, #2,255 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Waterford School District (suburban): math 26% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #285 of 540 in MI (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 130 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,614 units permitted in Oakland County in 2024 (721 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oakland County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $139,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.77%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $275,146
• List price: $139,900
• Delta: -49.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2811 Orange Grove Rd	0.00mi	2/1.0	1,023 (0%)	1mo	$161,000	$157	99
6832 Brightwood Ct	0.34mi	2/2.0	1,004 (-2%)	1mo	$549,900	$548	76
6817 Brightwood Ct	0.36mi	2/2.5	1,048 (+2%)	2mo	$387,500	$370	71
6441 Crest Dr	0.40mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,056 (+3%)	6mo	$236,000	$223	66
2200 Marston Dr N	0.68mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,000 (-2%)	2mo	$231,500	$232	58
7346 S Shaker Dr	0.65mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,040 (+2%)	4mo	$209,900	$202	58
6175 Hatchery Rd	0.74mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,019 (-0%)	3mo	$250,000	$245	58
2861 Tuxedo St	0.38mi	3/1.0 (+1)	915 (-11%)	3mo	$205,000	$224	57
7265 Ida Terrace Ter	0.42mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,113 (+9%)	9mo	$220,000	$198	51
2263 Overridge Ave	0.50mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,104 (+8%)	11mo	$140,000	$127	50
3330 Homestead Dr	0.55mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,173 (+15%)	2mo	$250,000	$213	41
6470 Adamson Dr	0.56mi	3/1.0 (+1)	882 (-14%)	13mo	$235,000	$266	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $5,971
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.08×
• Total profit: $42,110
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48329

• Active inventory: 130
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,761 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$142 /mo · $1,700/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $450

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,192

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2557 Desmond Waterford, MI	2.0	1.0	902	$1,595	$1.77	10d	1	0.35mi
3234 Whitfield Dr Waterford, MI	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,350	$1.74	43d	1	0.46mi
6400 Elmwood Dr Waterford, MI	2.0	1.0	838	$1,400	$1.67	17d	1	0.47mi
1407 Laurel Valley Dr Waterford, MI	2.0	1.5	986	$1,550	$1.57	10d	1	1.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 984-char remark

   Show marketing remark (984 chars)

   Tucked away on the north end of desirable Williams Lake, this ranch home offers a rare opportunity in a location filled with potential. Situated on a large corner lot just across the street from the lake, the property includes private lake access nearby for enjoying all that Williams Lake has to offer. The home features over 1,000 sq ft with 2 bedrooms and 1 full bathroom. Whether you are looking for a project home, investment opportunity, future building site, or a chance to bring new life to an existing property, there are many possibilities here. The detached garage is in need of repair and the home will require TLC, but the setting and lot size create strong upside potential. Convenient North Waterford location close to shopping, dining, parks, and major commuting routes. Property is being sold as-is. Home comes with lake access on an out lot across from home. Multiple offers received all offers are due by Sunday at 4:00 pm. Please allow up to 24 hours for response.

2. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 984-char remark

   Show marketing remark (984 chars)

   Tucked away on the north end of desirable Williams Lake, this ranch home offers a rare opportunity in a location filled with potential. Situated on a large corner lot just across the street from the lake, the property includes private lake access nearby for enjoying all that Williams Lake has to offer. The home features over 1,000 sq ft with 2 bedrooms and 1 full bathroom. Whether you are looking for a project home, investment opportunity, future building site, or a chance to bring new life to an existing property, there are many possibilities here. The detached garage is in need of repair and the home will require TLC, but the setting and lot size create strong upside potential. Convenient North Waterford location close to shopping, dining, parks, and major commuting routes. Property is being sold as-is. Home comes with lake access on an out lot across from home. Multiple offers received all offers are due by Sunday at 4:00 pm. Please allow up to 24 hours for response.

3. 2026-05-14
   listed $139,900 Active 984-char remark

   Show marketing remark (984 chars)

   Tucked away on the north end of desirable Williams Lake, this ranch home offers a rare opportunity in a location filled with potential. Situated on a large corner lot just across the street from the lake, the property includes private lake access nearby for enjoying all that Williams Lake has to offer. The home features over 1,000 sq ft with 2 bedrooms and 1 full bathroom. Whether you are looking for a project home, investment opportunity, future building site, or a chance to bring new life to an existing property, there are many possibilities here. The detached garage is in need of repair and the home will require TLC, but the setting and lot size create strong upside potential. Convenient North Waterford location close to shopping, dining, parks, and major commuting routes. Property is being sold as-is. Home comes with lake access on an out lot across from home. Multiple offers received all offers are due by Sunday at 4:00 pm. Please allow up to 24 hours for response.

4. 2026-05-14
   listed $139,900 Active 984-char remark

   Show marketing remark (984 chars)

   Tucked away on the north end of desirable Williams Lake, this ranch home offers a rare opportunity in a location filled with potential. Situated on a large corner lot just across the street from the lake, the property includes private lake access nearby for enjoying all that Williams Lake has to offer. The home features over 1,000 sq ft with 2 bedrooms and 1 full bathroom. Whether you are looking for a project home, investment opportunity, future building site, or a chance to bring new life to an existing property, there are many possibilities here. The detached garage is in need of repair and the home will require TLC, but the setting and lot size create strong upside potential. Convenient North Waterford location close to shopping, dining, parks, and major commuting routes. Property is being sold as-is. Home comes with lake access on an out lot across from home. Multiple offers received all offers are due by Sunday at 4:00 pm. Please allow up to 24 hours for response.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,700 · $142/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,927 · $161/mo
• Expected delta: +$227/yr (+$19/mo · 13.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,131
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$1,700
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,690
• − Management: −$1,690
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable income: $3,348
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$804
• After-tax cash flow: $4,591/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waterford School District
• NCES district ID: 2635310
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $55,581
• Composite: 29.99/100
• National rank: #6364
• State rank: #285 of 540 in MI

Livability — Village of Clarkston

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #2255

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Oakland County · 1,009,092 people
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 24,715
• Household income: $85,709
• Rent vs Own: 10.6% rent · 89.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 330.0

Population outlook (Oakland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,335,747 people
• By 2030: 1,375,100 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 1,435,385 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 1,469,250 · +10.0%
• By 2075: 1,531,946 · +14.7%
• By 2100: 1,450,485 · +8.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Slovak 4% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Chinese 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oakland

• 2024 margin: D (+10.6) · D 54.4% · R 43.8% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: 14.5pp · 2024: 10.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.6 2020: D+14.1 2016: D+8.1 2012: D+8.1 2008: D+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -292.54%
• Current HPI: 204.9674
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+15.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Sold (MLS) $161,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-28 Sold (MLS) $161,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-18 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-18 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-14 Listed $139,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $139,900 REALCOMP

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,700 · +19.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.