Is 1229 Hummingbird Ln in Gulf Shores, AL a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D- with a 3.7% cap rate and $-578/mo modeled cash flow at a $265,000 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 1229 Hummingbird Ln?

The modeled cap rate is 3.7% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,276/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

D- Composite 39.93

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +15.0/15.0
Cash flow +5.4/30.0
Schools +5.1/10.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
1% rule +3.6/10.0
Livability +3.5/5.0
Rent growth +3.4/5.0
DSCR +0.0/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$265,000

1229 Hummingbird Ln · Gulf Shores, AL 36542

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,195 sqft · Townhouse · 79 Days on market

Built 1985 Good condition Garage $222/sqft · 37% below area Est $418k · 37% under $545/mo HOA · 24% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

This is one of a kind in OYSTER Bay Village. OYSTER BAY VILLAGE is a picturesque setting with many trees and flowering bushes just west of Gulf Shores and a seven minute drive to beaches. A 55+, golf cart, friendly community just off Fort Morgan Road with a recently refinished heated pool and hot tub, clubhouse with full kitchen, meeting room, library, exercise room, and wood workshop. There is a walking trail to OYSTER Bay with a community gazebo. This End Unit has custom upgrades and well-maintained with a cathedral, shiplap ceiling and the spacious living/dining area and two bay windows. All flooring is custom tile.

Key facts

Walk-in closet
Custom upgrades
Custom tile flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $265k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-578 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $181k (31.6% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (14.1% below list).
Recommended offer: $181k (31.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 0.4% in Gulf Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 69/100 on livability (#61 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
Zoned schools: Gulf Shores Elementary School (math 47% / reading 72%, grade B-, #63 of 627 statewide, top 10%, 1,062 students, 44% FRL); Gulf Shores Middle School (math 34% / reading 62%, grade C-, #29 of 257 statewide, top 12%, 589 students, 48% FRL); Gulf Shores High School (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #22 of 305 statewide, top 8%, 799 students, 37% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 1704 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 109d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).
This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($249k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

Watch-outs: HOA is 24% of rent.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $181,361 (31.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.86% ✗
Cap rate: 3.68%
Cash-on-cash: -9.35%
DSCR: 0.58
GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $417,891
List price: $265,000
Delta: -36.59%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1524 W Beach Blvd #1202	1.00mi	2/2.5	1,236 (+3%)	5mo	$530,000	$429	53
1524 W Beach Blvd #603	1.00mi	2/2.5	1,236 (+3%)	5mo	$491,500	$398	53
1524 W Beach Blvd #502	1.00mi	2/2.5	1,236 (+3%)	8mo	$485,000	$392	50
1516 Sandpiper Ln #109	0.87mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (+4%)	4mo	$525,000	$421	49
1524 W Beach Blvd #404	1.00mi	2/2.5	1,236 (+3%)	10mo	$440,000	$356	49
18389 State Highway 180 Unit C	1.04mi	2/2.0	1,145 (-4%)	12mo	$285,000	$249	48
1516 Sandpiper Ln #209	0.87mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (+4%)	6mo	$410,000	$329	48
18389 State Highway 180 Unit B/2A	1.04mi	2/2.0	1,145 (-4%)	14mo	$285,000	$249	47
1524 BEACH Blvd #1006	1.00mi	2/2.5	1,236 (+3%)	15mo	$530,000	$429	45
1516 Sandpiper Ln #302	0.87mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,298 (+9%)	5mo	$525,000	$404	41
1477 W Lagoon Ave #104	0.94mi	2/2.0	980 (-18%)	5mo	$305,000	$311	36
1477 W Lagoon Ave #103	0.94mi	2/2.0	980 (-18%)	6mo	$315,000	$321	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.71% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -31.6%
Equity multiple: -0.05×
Total profit: $-77,748
Equity at exit: $39,512

10-year hold

IRR: -30.3%
Equity multiple: -0.44×
Total profit: $-106,787
Equity at exit: $22,912

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 4 active
Months of supply: 3.4 mo (29%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $509,000 ($476/sqft)
Median days on market: 183 d
This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
ARV vs active asking: -26.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 36542

Rents YoY: 3.7%
Active inventory: 1704
Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,276 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
Tax est. 1.5%: −$331 /mo · $3,975/yr
Insurance: −$110
HOA: −$545
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$478
Net cashflow: $-578

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,008

Max offer price $181,361

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-395	-5% $-486	+0% $-578	+5% $-670	+10% $-761
Rent	-10% $-758	-5% $-668	+0% $-578	+5% $-488	+10% $-398
Rate	-1.0pp $-445	-0.5pp $-511	base $-578	+0.5pp $-647	+1.0pp $-717

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $66,250
Closing costs: $7,950
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1159 W Beach Blvd Unit 1541225P Gulf Shores, AL	2.0	1.0	893	$3,020	$3.38	109d	1	1.16mi
979 W Lagoon Ave Unit 1A Gulf Shores, AL	2.0	2.0	905	$2,000	$2.21	116d	1	1.36mi
962 W Beach Blvd Unit A Gulf Shores, AL	2.0	2.0	1000	$2,200	$2.20	6d	1	1.39mi
957 W Beach Blvd Unit 1541213P Gulf Shores, AL	2.0	2.0	947	$3,386	$3.58	109d	1	1.50mi

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community: HOA with monthly feeMonthly association fee of $545HOA covers internet, sewer, trash, and water

Exterior

Parking: Attached garage (1 covered space total, 1 garage space)Concrete parking
Utilities: Electricity availableOther water sourceOther sewer
Home design: Residential garden-style propertyAttached unitOne story
Construction: Vinyl sidingAluminum roofExisting construction (year built: existing)
Exterior features: End unit condominiumLocated in a 55+ communityClubhouseFitness centerPoolTrailsPets allowed

Interior

Kitchen: RangeDishwasherDisposalMicrowaveRefrigerator
Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level)
Flooring: Tile
Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling: Electric heat pumpCentral air conditioning
Interior features: RangeDishwasherDisposalMicrowaveRefrigerator
Laundry & utility: WasherDryer

HOA detail $545/mo · $6,540/yr

Likely covers: pool

Listing history 50 events

2026-09-05

days on market $265,000 Active 79 DOM
2026-09-04

days on market $265,000 Active 78 DOM
2026-09-03

days on market $265,000 Active 77 DOM
2026-08-31

days on market $265,000 Active 74 DOM
2026-08-30

days on market $265,000 Active 73 DOM
2026-08-29

days on market $265,000 Active 72 DOM
2026-08-28

days on market $265,000 Active 71 DOM
2026-08-27

days on market $265,000 Active 70 DOM
2026-08-26

days on market $265,000 Active 69 DOM
2026-08-25

days on market $265,000 Active 68 DOM
2026-08-24

days on market $265,000 Active 67 DOM
2026-08-23

days on market $265,000 Active 66 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $265,000 Active 65 DOM
2026-08-21

days on market $265,000 Active 64 DOM
2026-08-20

days on market $265,000 Active 63 DOM
2026-08-19

days on market $265,000 Active 62 DOM
2026-08-18

days on market $265,000 Active 61 DOM
2026-08-17

days on market $265,000 Active 60 DOM
2026-08-16

days on market $265,000 Active 59 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $265,000 Active 58 DOM
2026-08-14

days on market $265,000 Active 57 DOM
2026-08-13

days on market $265,000 Active 56 DOM
2026-08-12

days on market $265,000 Active 55 DOM
2026-08-11

days on market $265,000 Active 54 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $265,000 Active 53 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $265,000 Active 52 DOM
2026-08-08

days on market $265,000 Active 51 DOM
2026-08-07

days on market $265,000 Active 50 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $265,000 Active 49 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $265,000 Active 48 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $265,000 Active 47 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $265,000 Active 46 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $265,000 Active 43 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $265,000 Active 42 DOM
2026-07-29

days on market $265,000 Active 41 DOM
2026-07-27

days on market $265,000 Active 39 DOM
2026-07-25

days on market $265,000 Active 37 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $265,000 Active 36 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $265,000 Active 35 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $265,000 Active 34 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $265,000 Active 33 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $265,000 Active 30 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $265,000 Active 28 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $265,000 Active 27 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $265,000 Active 26 DOM
2026-07-13

pricedays on market $265,000 Active 25 DOM
2026-07-12

days on market $275,000 Active 24 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $275,000 Active 23 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $275,000 Active 22 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $275,000 Active 21 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 13% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $27,317
− Mortgage interest: −$14,844
− Property taxes: −$3,975
− Insurance: −$1,325
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,185
− Management: −$2,185
− HOA: −$6,540
− Depreciation: −$7,709
Taxable loss: −$11,447

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,747
After-tax cash flow: $-4,189/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $5,975–$17,925 screening

This end-unit townhouse in Oyster Bay Village is in good condition with custom upgrades and well-maintained features. It offers a recently refinished heated pool and hot tub, making it an attractive property for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

Both Pool maintenance — A well-maintained pool can significantly increase both resale and rental value ↑
Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can boost curb appeal and property value ↑
Resale Kitchen appliances — Upgrading to modern appliances can attract more buyers ↑
Resale Bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures can enhance the appeal of the bathroom ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 51/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Gulf Shores Elementary School B- AL #63/627 Nat'l #7,252/41,679 Middle Gulf Shores Middle School C- AL #29/257 Nat'l #3,953/14,009 High Gulf Shores High School F AL #22/305 Nat'l #6,890/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Gulf Shores

Score: 69/100
State rank: #61
US rank: #8945

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime C+ Employment C Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: Gulf Shores, AL
County: Baldwin County · 248,264 people
City population: 18,906
Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
Population (ZIP): 18,906
Household income: $79,639
Rent vs Own: 27.4% rent · 72.6% own
Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 248,264 people
By 2030: 270,315 · +8.9%
By 2040: 312,967 · +26.1%
By 2050: 352,262 · +41.9%
By 2075: 438,841 · +76.8%
By 2100: 487,736 · +96.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3% Black 2% Asian 1%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 1%
Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.5% · R 78.7%
2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -51.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+53.8 2016: R+57.8 2012: R+55.8 2008: R+51.5

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -153.95%
Current HPI: 257.6494
Rent YoY: ▲ 3.71%
Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Financial Services	1	$8B
#317 Regions Financial Birmingham $8.2B
Healthcare	1	$5B
#300 Encompass Health Birmingham $5.3B

Price history

-3.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

2026-07-13 Price Changed $265,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
2026-06-18 Listed $275,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
2026-04-22 Contingent — BCAR
2026-04-08 Price Changed $260,000 BCAR
2026-03-23 Price Changed $265,000 BCAR
2026-01-19 Listed $275,000 BCAR

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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