14541 William Trails Dr · Willis, TX 77378

$169,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,206 sqft · SingleFamily · 209 Days on market

Built 2026 $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.9/10.0

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Utility room
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• GRANITE COUNTERS
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• PRIMARY SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• UTILITY ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Municipal Utility District disclosure available
• Financial info: Lease not considered
• HOA & community: Community managed by Inframark; Annual association fee of $500

Exterior

• Parking: No parking details provided
• Security: Prewired for security; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Built by D.R. Horton; Cement siding; Year built 2026
• Exterior features: Porch; Private yard; Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Microwave; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second level (approx. 12 x 12); Bedroom on second level (approx. 11 x 10); Bedroom on second level (approx. 11 x 10)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric); Thermostat (energy efficient)
• Interior features: Granite counters; Kitchen/dining combo; Living/dining room; Programmable thermostat; Ventilation (improved indoor air quality)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $169,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $178,488.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $167 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 4.7% in Willis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#933 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Edward B Cannan El (math 34% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,208 of 4,322 statewide, top 52%, 672 students, 74% FRL); Lynn Lucas Middle (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 971 students, 74% FRL); Willis H S (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,521 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 710 active listings in the ZIP; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 209 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $18k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $149,591 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 209 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.02%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $178,488
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14570 William Trails Dr	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,206 (0%)	2mo	$174,990	$145	95
11822 Holly Hurst Dr	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,206 (0%)	1mo	$173,990	$144	92
14554 William Trails Dr	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,206 (0%)	7mo	$178,990	$148	92
14586 William Trails Dr	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,206 (0%)	7mo	$178,990	$148	90
14602 William Trails Dr	0.12mi	3/2.5	1,206 (0%)	7mo	$178,990	$148	89
11806 Holly Hurst Dr	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,206 (0%)	5mo	$169,990	$141	88
11818 Holly Hurst Dr	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,206 (0%)	8mo	$169,990	$141	87
11826 Holly Hurst Dr	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,206 (0%)	9mo	$169,990	$141	86
12018 William Trails Cir	0.17mi	3/2.5	1,206 (0%)	8mo	$185,000	$153	86
14619 William Trails Dr	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,206 (0%)	9mo	$183,990	$153	86
14603 William Trails Dr	0.12mi	3/2.5	1,206 (0%)	11mo	$182,890	$152	85
12011 William Trails Cir	0.20mi	3/2.5	1,206 (0%)	9mo	$174,990	$145	83

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-21,848
• Equity at exit: $26,613

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-19,419
• Equity at exit: $15,432

Cash invested: $49,977 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77378

• Home prices YoY: -3.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 710
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,826 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$936
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$223 /mo · $2,677/yr
• Insurance: −$74
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
• Net cashflow: $167

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,615

Max offer price $178,488

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,622
• Closing costs: $5,355
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,990 Active 209 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,990 Active 208 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,990 Active 207 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,990 Active 206 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $169,990 Active 204 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   price $174,990 Active 200 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,990 Active 200 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,990 Active 199 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $179,990 Active 198 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $179,990 Active 195 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,990 Active 194 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,990 Active 193 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,990 Active 192 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,990 Active 191 DOM
15. 2026-05-20
    status Active
16. 2026-03-26
    historical Active Under Contract
17. 2025-12-06
    price $179,990
18. 2025-11-21
    listed $187,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,917
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,998
• − Property taxes: −$2,677
• − Insurance: −$892
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,753
• − Management: −$1,753
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$5,192
• Taxable loss: −$854
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$205
• After-tax cash flow: $2,214/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Willis

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #933
• US rank: #16579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 38,421
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,629
• Household income: $71,143
• Rent vs Own: 25.5% rent · 74.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 402.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.25%
• Current HPI: 261.9673
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.98%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-03-26 Contingent — HARMLS
• 2025-12-06 Price Changed $179,990 HARMLS
• 2025-11-21 Listed $187,990 HARMLS