195 E Chance Rd · Lumberton, TX 77657

$97,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 48 Days on market

Built 1963 0.49 ac lot $69/sqft · 59% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity awaits at 195 East Chance! Situated on approximately 0.49 of an acre and serviced by city utilities, this spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers great potential for investors or buyers. The property features a large open kitchen, generous living space, and a 1-car attached garage. Located in the desirable Lumberton School District, this home is a true fixer-upper and is being sold for cash only, as it will not meet financing requirements. Property is being sold as-is; seller will not make any repairs. Shown by appointment.

Key facts

• True fixer-upper
• Large open kitchen
• 0.49 acre lot

Tags

• LARGE OPEN KITCHEN
• GENEROUS LIVING SPACE
• TRUE FIXER-UPPER

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1963; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: Fenced yard with backyard fencing; Cleared lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor; Additional bedrooms on the first floor (total 3 bedrooms)
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms, including a primary bathroom on the first floor
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Ventilation for improved indoor air quality
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $97k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $677 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $97k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.7% vs local median 3.2% in Lumberton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#160 in TX, #4,326 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lumberton ISD (suburban): math 48% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #173 of 826 in TX (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lumberton Pri (math 54% / reading 58%, grade C+, #574 of 4,322 statewide, top 14%, 982 students, 43% FRL); Lumberton Middle (math 47% / reading 51%, grade C-, #378 of 1,662 statewide, top 23%, 969 students, 35% FRL); Lumberton H S (math 55% / reading 61%, grade C, #320 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,229 students, 30% FRL).
• Market conditions: 318 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 358 units permitted in Hardin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $671 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $28k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $59k; list at $97k implies a 64% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $94,090 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.83% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.92%
• DSCR: 2.33
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $235,454
• List price: $97,000
• Delta: -58.80%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
541 N Village Creek Pkwy	0.28mi	3/2.5	1,450 (+4%)	10mo	$230,000	$159	71
106 Cherry Dr	0.18mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (+14%)	2mo	$259,000	$162	61
106 Greenleaf Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,400 (0%)	16mo	$226,800	$162	55
115 Rustic Ln	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,253 (-10%)	8mo	$249,900	$199	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.01×
• Total profit: $27,475
• Equity at exit: $14,463

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.93×
• Total profit: $79,705
• Equity at exit: $8,387

Cash invested: $27,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77657

• Active inventory: 318
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,771 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$509
• Tax from tax record: −$173 /mo · $2,075/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$372
• Net cashflow: $677

Break-even live

Break-even rent $914

Max offer price $97,000

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,250
• Closing costs: $2,910
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
527 Old Silsbee Rd Unit 1A Lumberton, TX	2.0	1.5	1050	$1,250	$1.19	43d	1	0.34mi
527 Old Silsbee Rd Unit 3C Lumberton, TX	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,250	$1.14	13d	1	0.34mi
200 Raider Ln Lumberton, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,395	$1.15	23d	1	0.89mi
40 Candlelight Ln Lumberton, TX	3.0	2.0	1626	$2,000	$1.23	43d	1	0.89mi
40 Candlelight Ln Lumberton, TX	3.0	2.0	1626	$2,000	$1.23	23d	1	0.89mi
357 S Main St Lumberton, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$895	$0.74	43d	1	1.08mi
65 Jordan Dr Lumberton, TX	4.0	2.0	1352	$1,995	$1.48	13d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $97,000 Pending 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $97,000 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   days on market $97,000 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   days on market $97,000 Active 43 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $97,000 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $97,000 Active 41 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $97,000 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-05
   days on market $109,000 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $109,000 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $109,000 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $109,000 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,000 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-05-30
    days on market $109,000 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-05-14
    price $109,000 540-char remark

    Show marketing remark (540 chars)

    Opportunity awaits at 195 East Chance! Situated on approximately 0.49 of an acre and serviced by city utilities, this spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers great potential for investors or buyers. The property features a large open kitchen, generous living space, and a 1-car attached garage. Located in the desirable Lumberton School District, this home is a true fixer-upper and is being sold for cash only, as it will not meet financing requirements. Property is being sold as-is; seller will not make any repairs. Shown by appointment.

15. 2026-05-14
    price $109,000 462-char remark

    Show marketing remark (540 chars)

    Opportunity awaits at 195 East Chance! Situated on approximately 0.49 of an acre and serviced by city utilities, this spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers great potential for investors or buyers. The property features a large open kitchen, generous living space, and a 1-car attached garage. Located in the desirable Lumberton School District, this home is a true fixer-upper and is being sold for cash only, as it will not meet financing requirements. Property is being sold as-is; seller will not make any repairs. Shown by appointment.

16. 2026-04-28
    listed $125,000 Active 462-char remark
17. 2026-04-27
    listed $125,000 Active 540-char remark

    Show marketing remark (540 chars)

    Opportunity awaits at 195 East Chance! Situated on approximately 0.49 of an acre and serviced by city utilities, this spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers great potential for investors or buyers. The property features a large open kitchen, generous living space, and a 1-car attached garage. Located in the desirable Lumberton School District, this home is a true fixer-upper and is being sold for cash only, as it will not meet financing requirements. Property is being sold as-is; seller will not make any repairs. Shown by appointment.

18. 1999-05-26
    soldstatus $59,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,075 · $173/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,075 · $173/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,255
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,434
• − Property taxes: −$2,075
• − Insurance: −$485
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,700
• − Management: −$1,700
• − Depreciation: −$2,822
• Taxable income: $7,039
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,689
• After-tax cash flow: $6,438/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lumberton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813530
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $62,996
• Composite: 43.2/100
• National rank: #3063
• State rank: #173 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lumberton

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #160
• US rank: #4326

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lumberton, TX
• County: Hardin County · 39,783 people
• City population: 22,258
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,258
• Household income: $95,718
• Rent vs Own: 16.3% rent · 83.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 147.0

Population outlook (Hardin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 57,780 people
• By 2030: 58,296 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 58,421 · +1.1%
• By 2050: 57,391 · -0.7%
• By 2075: 53,132 · -8.0%
• By 2100: 44,905 · -22.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Serbian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hardin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+75.8) · D 11.9% · R 87.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -61.2pp · 2024: -75.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+75.8 2020: R+73.8 2016: R+73.9 2012: R+67.6 2008: R+61.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -160.56%
• Current HPI: 156.2265
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+63.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Pending — BBOR
• 2026-06-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-06-06 Price Changed $97,000 BBOR
• 2026-06-06 Price Changed $97,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $109,000 BBOR
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $109,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $125,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Listed $125,000 BBOR
• 1999-05-26 Sold (Public Records) $59,200 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,075 · +9.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.