Is 3507 Mary Ln #3 in Weslaco, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D with a 5.6% cap rate and $-80/mo modeled cash flow at a $135,000 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 3507 Mary Ln #3?

The modeled cap rate is 5.6% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,107/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

D Composite 40.36

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +10.5/15.0
Cash flow +10.1/30.0
Condition / age +5.0/5.0
Livability +3.6/5.0
1% rule +3.2/10.0
DSCR +2.9/10.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0
Schools +2.4/10.0
Appreciation +0.3/10.0

$135,000

3507 Mary Ln #3 · Weslaco, TX 78599

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 920 sqft · Condo · 169 Days on market

Built 2025 Excellent condition $147/sqft · 7% below area Est $145k · 7% under $21/mo HOA · 2% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

This brand new 2-bedroom, 2-bath condo is located in The Coves, Weslaco’s newest gated subdivision. With modern finishes and an open-concept layout, this unit offers comfortable and stylish living just minutes from the expressway and conveniently situated right off International Blvd. The unit will include all appliances such as microwave, fridge, stove, and the washer/dryer combo. Large, open yard ideal for gatherings, pets, or play. Be the first to live in this beautiful new construction home in a private and secure community with easy access to shopping, dining, and schools. Ready for immediate move-in.

Key facts

Large open yard
Gated subdivision
Open-concept layout

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $135k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-80 ($-957/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $123k (8.5% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $111k (18.0% below list).
Recommended offer: $111k (18.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.2% in Weslaco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 72/100 on livability (#277 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
Weslaco ISD (suburban): math 23% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #705 of 826 in TX (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Dr R E Margo El (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,583 of 4,322 statewide, top 86%, 914 students, 87% FRL); Armando Cuellar Middle (math 22% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,200 of 1,662 statewide, top 73%, 626 students, 88% FRL); Weslaco East H S (math 24% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,250 of 1,632 statewide, top 77%, 2,004 students, 86% FRL) — zoned schools average 87% FRL vs 59% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: 305 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 169 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $110,664 (18.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 169 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.82% ✗
Cap rate: 5.58%
Cash-on-cash: -2.53%
DSCR: 0.89
GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $144,583
List price: $135,000
Delta: -6.63%
Verdict: FAIR
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3507 Mary Ln #1	0.02mi	2/2.0	920 (0%)	3mo	$135,000	$147	97
3601 Mary Ln #1	0.01mi	2/2.0	920 (0%)	4mo	$135,000	$147	96
3506 Mary Ln #3	0.02mi	2/2.0	920 (0%)	5mo	$135,000	$147	95
3507 Jessica Ln	0.10mi	2/2.0	920 (0%)	4mo	$135,000	$147	92
3507 Mary Ln #2	0.01mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,073 (+17%)	0mo	$155,000	$144	69
3507 Mary Ln #4	0.01mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,073 (+17%)	1mo	$155,000	$144	68
3501 Mary Ln #2	0.01mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,073 (+17%)	2mo	$155,000	$144	68
3513 Mary Ln #4	0.01mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,073 (+17%)	4mo	$155,000	$144	66
3601 Mary Ln #2	0.02mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,073 (+17%)	6mo	$155,000	$144	64
3501 Jessica Ln #2	0.05mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,073 (+17%)	7mo	$155,000	$144	62
3506 Mary Ln #4	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,073 (+17%)	6mo	$155,000	$144	61
2020 Del Oro Dr	0.92mi	3/1.0 (+1)	968 (+5%)	4mo	$124,000	$128	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -20.5%
Equity multiple: 0.29×
Total profit: $-26,923
Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

IRR: -13.6%
Equity multiple: 0.21×
Total profit: $-29,861
Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 0 active · 1 under contract

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78599

Home prices YoY: -3.7%
Active inventory: 305
Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,107 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$708
Tax est. 1.5%: −$169 /mo · $2,025/yr
Insurance: −$56
HOA: −$21
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$232
Net cashflow: $-80

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,208

Max offer price $123,466

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $14	-5% $-33	+0% $-80	+5% $-126	+10% $-173
Rent	-10% $-167	-5% $-123	+0% $-80	+5% $-36	+10% $8
Rate	-1.0pp $-12	-0.5pp $-45	base $-80	+0.5pp $-115	+1.0pp $-150

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $33,750
Closing costs: $4,050
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3601 E Mile 8 N Weslaco, TX	2.0	2.0	900	$1,095	$1.22	93d	1	0.16mi
4013 Jenna Ln Unit D Weslaco, TX	2.0	2.0	1012	$1,300	$1.28	93d	1	0.32mi
1304 Petri Dr Weslaco, TX	2.0	2.0	1067	$1,050	$0.98	93d	1	0.53mi
1416 Vani Dr Unit 1 Weslaco, TX	2.0	2.0	947	$990	$1.05	93d	1	0.64mi
1412 Vani Dr Unit 3 Weslaco, TX	2.0	2.0	960	$990	$1.03	93d	1	0.64mi
100 La Herencia Mercedes, TX	1.0	1.0	570	$685	$1.20	62d	1	0.65mi
3900 Gabriela Dr Weslaco, TX	3.0	1.0	955	$1,150	$1.20	93d	1	0.99mi
2808 Rosemary Dr Unit 3 Weslaco, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,100	$1.10	93d	1	1.11mi
1917 Davenport St Unit 1 Weslaco, TX	2.0	2.0	938	$1,100	$1.17	93d	1	1.13mi
2108 Redbud Ln Unit 4 Weslaco, TX	2.0	2.0	920	$1,050	$1.14	93d	1	1.20mi
1817 Stauffer St Weslaco, TX	3.0	2.0	1116	$1,200	$1.08	93d	1	1.21mi
1722 E Davenport St Unit 4 Weslaco, TX	2.0	2.0	938	$1,100	$1.17	93d	1	1.23mi
1804 Davenport St Unit 4 Weslaco, TX	2.0	2.0	938	$1,125	$1.20	93d	1	1.23mi
1805 Stauffers St Unit 3 Weslaco, TX	3.0	2.0	1116	$1,150	$1.03	93d	1	1.25mi
1804 Stauffers St #3 Weslaco, TX	2.0	2.0	840	$1,000	$1.19	93d	1	1.27mi
1812 Redbud Ln Unit 1 Weslaco, TX	2.0	2.0	874	$1,025	$1.17	93d	1	1.29mi
2615 E Sugarcane Dr Weslaco, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0–4.0	1108	$810	$0.73	70d	8	1.30mi
1601 S Airport Dr Unit 261 Weslaco, TX	2.0	2.0	912	$1,500	$1.64	93d	1	1.36mi
1601 S Airport Dr Unit 283 Weslaco, TX	3.0	2.0	1033	$1,600	$1.55	93d	1	1.36mi

HOA detail $21/mo · $252/yr condo

Likely covers: security
Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $135,000 Active 169 DOM
2026-08-07

days on market $135,000 Active 168 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $135,000 Active 167 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $135,000 Active 166 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $135,000 Active 165 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $135,000 Active 164 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $135,000 Active 161 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $135,000 Active 160 DOM
2026-07-29

days on market $135,000 Active 159 DOM
2026-07-27

days on market $135,000 Active 157 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $135,000 Active 156 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $135,000 Active 154 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $135,000 Active 153 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $135,000 Active 152 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $135,000 Active 151 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $135,000 Active 150 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $135,000 Active 148 DOM
2026-07-17

days on market $135,000 Active 147 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $135,000 Active 146 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $135,000 Active 144 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $135,000 Active 143 DOM
2026-07-12

days on market $135,000 Active 142 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $135,000 Active 141 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $135,000 Active 140 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $135,000 Active 139 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $135,000 Active 137 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $135,000 Active 136 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $135,000 Active 135 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $135,000 Active 134 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $135,000 Active 133 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $135,000 Active 132 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $135,000 Active 131 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $135,000 Active 130 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $135,000 Active 129 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $135,000 Active 128 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $135,000 Active 127 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $135,000 Active 126 DOM
2026-06-23

days on market $135,000 Active 123 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $135,000 Active 122 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $135,000 Active 121 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $135,000 Active 120 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $135,000 Active 118 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $135,000 Active 117 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $135,000 Active 116 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $135,000 Active 115 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $135,000 Active 114 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $135,000 Active 113 DOM
2026-06-12

days on market $135,000 Active 112 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $135,000 Active 109 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $135,000 Active 108 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $13,280
− Mortgage interest: −$7,562
− Property taxes: −$2,025
− Insurance: −$675
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,062
− Management: −$1,062
− HOA: −$252
− Depreciation: −$3,927
Taxable loss: −$3,286

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$789
After-tax cash flow: $-168/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This brand new 2-bedroom, 2-bath condo in The Coves is move-in ready with modern finishes and an open-concept layout. The large, open yard and secure community make it an ideal choice for families or investors.

Value-add opportunities

Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
Both Painting — Fresh paint can make a home more appealing ↑
Both Lighting — Modern lighting can improve ambiance and safety ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 24/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Dr R E Margo El F TX #3,583/4,322 Nat'l #33,738/41,679 Middle Armando Cuellar Middle F TX #1,200/1,662 Nat'l #9,979/14,009 High Weslaco East H S F TX #1,250/1,632 Nat'l #12,347/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Weslaco ISD
NCES district ID: 4844960
Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -29.00%
Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -9.00%
Median HH income: $32,867
Composite: 22.05/100
National rank: #8196
State rank: #705 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 72/100

Livability — Weslaco

Score: 72/100
State rank: #277
US rank: #6469

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: Weslaco, TX
County: Hidalgo · 955,232 people
Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
Population (ZIP): 35,400
Household income: $55,939
Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 955,232 people
By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (96%)
Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 96% Two or more races 42% White 2%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 90%
Foreign-born: 20% · Canada
Languages at home: 19% English-only · Spanish 80%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -9.47%
Current HPI: 243.5537
Rent YoY: —
Metro: —
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

2026-04-21 Relisted — MCALLENMLS
2026-03-18 Pending — MCALLENMLS
2026-03-10 Contingent — MCALLENMLS
2026-01-16 Listed $135,000 MCALLENMLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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