21615 Carbonari Dr · Houston, TX 77447

$301,690

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,393 sqft · SingleFamily · 35 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition $135/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

New Construction Lennar Houston Home - The Bryce Floor Plan - This new two-story home is host to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout on the first floor, complete with access to a covered patio for effortless entertaining and multitasking. Two bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, including the lavish owner’s suite with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. A versatile game room is located on the second floor near two additional bedrooms. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Full bathroom
• Walk-in closet
• Covered patio

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• COVERED PATIO
• OWNER'S SUITE
• FULL BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• GAME ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: RealManage Onsite Elevated; Annual association amenities include clubhouse, sport court, fitness center, picnic area, park, pool, and tennis courts; Association fee charged annually

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 2026; Brick construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Back yard fence; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (13 x 14); Bedroom on first floor (10 x 11); Two bedrooms on second floor (12 x 10; 11 x 12)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity; Kitchen open to family room; Separate shower; Tub/shower combo; 8 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $301,690 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $339,990.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $302k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-482 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $270k (10.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $254k (16.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $254k (16.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools at 62% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1782 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($293k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $253,517 (16.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.07%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $339,990
• List price: $301,690
• Delta: -11.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21635 Carbonari Dr	0.02mi	4/3.5	2,400 (+0%)	1mo	$357,990	$149	96
19619 San Severino Dr	0.02mi	4/2.5	2,279 (-5%)	1mo	$320,990	$141	88
21934 Maddaloni View Dr	0.02mi	4/2.0	2,162 (-10%)	1mo	$362,990	$168	78
21619 Carbonari Dr	0.02mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,637 (+10%)	0mo	$364,990	$138	77
21631 Carbonari Dr	0.02mi	4/2.5	2,083 (-13%)	1mo	$343,990	$165	75
20023 Venetian Waters Dr	0.13mi	4/2.5	2,052 (-14%)	1mo	$289,990	$141	67
22123 Oceania Shores Dr	0.41mi	4/3.0	2,586 (+8%)	1mo	$399,990	$155	67
21714 Piazza Maggiore Ln	0.14mi	4/2.5	2,042 (-15%)	1mo	$300,000	$147	66
21711 Piazza Maggiore Ln	0.67mi	4/2.5	2,331 (-3%)	1mo	$310,000	$133	61
22002 Corsica View Dr	0.62mi	4/2.0	2,081 (-13%)	1mo	$289,900	$139	44
21707 Piazza Maggiore Ln	0.68mi	4/2.5	2,042 (-15%)	1mo	$300,000	$147	41
19446 Saint Green Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,040 (-15%)	1mo	$306,990	$150	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-93,088
• Equity at exit: $50,694

10-year hold

• IRR: -53.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.56×
• Total profit: $-148,793
• Equity at exit: $29,396

Cash invested: $95,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77447

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1782
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,535 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,783
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$425 /mo · $5,100/yr
• Insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$135
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$532
• Net cashflow: $-482

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,145

Max offer price $270,272

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-247	-5% $-364	+0% $-482	+5% $-599	+10% $-717
Rent	-10% $-682	-5% $-582	+0% $-482	+5% $-382	+10% $-282
Rate	-1.0pp $-311	-0.5pp $-395	base $-482	+0.5pp $-570	+1.0pp $-660

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,998
• Closing costs: $10,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22215 Scarlino Dr Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	2099	$2,450	$1.17	22d	1	0.20mi
22222 Opa Glen Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	3.0	2609	$2,850	$1.09	44d	1	0.46mi
20703 Solstice Point Dr Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	1912	$1,951	$1.02	2d	1	0.49mi
22023 Lost Lantern Dr Hockley, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1601	$1,863	$1.16	2d	1	0.54mi
20718 Round Key Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.5	2133	$1,931	$0.91	6d	1	0.68mi
21210 Echo Manor Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.5	2221	$2,150	$0.97	3d	1	0.79mi
20313 Evergreen Cypress Dr Hockley, TX	2.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	2051	$2,712	$1.32	2d	1	0.92mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $135 · $1,620/yr

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $301,690 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $301,690 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $301,690 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 616-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $301,690 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $301,690 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $301,690 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $301,690 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $301,690 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $301,690 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $301,690 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $301,690 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $301,690 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $301,690 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    price $306,990
16. 2026-05-14
    historical
17. 2026-05-14
    listed $306,990 Active 583-char remark
18. 2026-05-07
    price $300,740
19. 2026-05-04
    price $310,840
20. 2026-04-30
    price $317,040
21. 2026-04-27
    price $321,990
22. 2026-04-20
    price $325,040
23. 2026-04-16
    price $329,990
24. 2026-04-09
    price $339,090
25. 2026-03-24
    price $344,190
26. 2026-03-16
    price $346,190
27. 2026-03-16
    listed $359,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,422
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,045
• − Property taxes: −$5,100
• − Insurance: −$1,700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,434
• − Management: −$2,434
• − HOA: −$1,620
• − Depreciation: −$9,891
• Taxable loss: −$11,801
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,832
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,950/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This new two-story home is move-in ready with a spacious open-concept layout and modern finishes. It offers excellent curb appeal and interior aesthetics, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring in kitchen and bathrooms — Modern flooring improves aesthetics and functionality

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in kitchen and bathrooms — Modern flooring improves aesthetics and functionality ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,231
• Household income: $116,925
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 265.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.73%
• Current HPI: 249.6969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.58%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-16.2% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $301,690 HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $306,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $306,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $300,740 HARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $310,840 HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $317,040 HARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $321,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $325,040 HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $329,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $339,090 HARMLS
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $344,190 HARMLS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $346,190 HARMLS
• 2026-03-16 Listed $359,990 HARMLS