945 Valencia St · Jackson, MS 39204

$67,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,301 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 141 Days on market

Built 1960 10,018 sqft lot $52/sqft · 18% above area Est $57k · 18% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Bring your own paint and appliances to this fantastic single-family home with lots of potential! Featuring 3 large bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, this home boasts a fantastic layout and large living spaces with wood flooring throughout. The kitchen features lots of cabinet space with the convenience of an adjoining dining room. A 2 car garage, covered rear porch and fenced yard finish off this amazing house! Located near local shopping, dining, parks, and major roadways, providing access to surrounding areas and amenities.

Key facts

• Wood flooring
• Fenced yard
• Large living spaces

Tags

• LARGE LIVING SPACES
• WOOD FLOORING
• LOTS OF CABINET SPACE
• ADJOINING DINING ROOM
• COVERED REAR PORCH
• FENCED YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $68k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $481 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $68k).
• Recommended offer: $59k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.8% vs local median 9.9% in Jackson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#66 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, employment F.
• Jackson Public School District (urban): math 9% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #112 of 130 in MS (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 88% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+13.6%/yr); 121 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 167 units permitted in Hinds County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,231/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($30k/yr) (locally 1099% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($467 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hinds County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 141 days — a 12% lower offer ($59k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $59,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 141 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.82% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.52%
• DSCR: 2.36
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $57,118
• List price: $67,500
• Delta: 18.18%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2081 Shady Lane Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,420 (+9%)	4mo	$12,000	$8	73
1941 Catalina Dr	0.10mi	3/1.5	1,458 (+12%)	1mo	$85,000	$58	72
2112 Paden St	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,259 (-3%)	1mo	$35,000	$28	67
2261 Paden St	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,369 (+5%)	3mo	$70,000	$51	66
1746 Casteel Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,376 (+6%)	1mo	$65,000	$47	65
931 Stuart St	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,363 (+5%)	3mo	$32,500	$24	64
837 Combs St	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,408 (+8%)	1mo	$15,500	$11	61
545 Merigold Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,220 (-6%)	4mo	$79,000	$65	58
2566 Mcdowell Cir	0.67mi	3/1.5	1,204 (-8%)	3mo	$35,000	$29	52
1319 Dorgan St	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,131 (-13%)	1mo	$65,000	$57	52
1725 Camellia Ln	0.51mi	3/1.5	1,134 (-13%)	3mo	$40,000	$35	50
2416 Paden St	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,178 (-10%)	0mo	$84,900	$72	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 50.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.91×
• Total profit: $73,921
• Equity at exit: $60,809

10-year hold

• IRR: 46.6%
• Equity multiple: 12.10×
• Total profit: $209,791
• Equity at exit: $131,138

Cash invested: $18,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39204

• Home prices YoY: 8.0%
• Rents YoY: 13.6%
• Active inventory: 121
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,231 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$354
• Tax from tax record: −$110 /mo · $1,316/yr
• Insurance: −$28
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $481

Break-even live

Break-even rent $623

Max offer price $67,500

Occupancy floor 56%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,875
• Closing costs: $2,025
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1848 Willaneel Dr Jackson, MS	4.0	2.0	1623	$1,100	$0.68	14d	1	0.36mi
2242 Castle Hill Dr Jackson, MS	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,475	$0.98	23d	1	0.42mi
2242 Castle Hill Dr Jackson, MS	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,475	$0.98	14d	1	0.42mi
1645 Camellia Ln Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,200	$0.95	14d	1	0.60mi
843 Reaves St Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,084	$0.77	44d	1	0.67mi
2401 Coronet Pl Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,400	$1.17	23d	1	0.68mi
125 Wingfield Ct Unit NA Jackson, MS	4.0	2.0	1797	$1,650	$0.92	23d	1	0.72mi
1126 Barbara Ann Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1343	$1,000	$0.74	44d	1	0.80mi
1126 Barbara Ann Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1343	$1,000	$0.74	14d	1	0.80mi
2694 Woodside Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1509	$1,075	$0.71	14d	1	0.82mi
2694 Woodside Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1509	$1,075	$0.71	23d	1	0.82mi
1513 Maria Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,200	$1.07	23d	1	0.85mi
1513 Maria Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,200	$1.07	14d	1	0.85mi
2732 Woodside Dr Jackson, MS	4.0	2.0	1566	$1,050	$0.67	23d	1	0.87mi
2858 Fairhill Dr Jackson, MS	2.0	1.0	900	$825	$0.92	44d	1	0.90mi
2729 Carleton St Jackson, MS	4.0	2.0	1666	$1,575	$0.95	14d	1	0.93mi
245 Shady Cir Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1510	$1,100	$0.73	23d	1	0.94mi
2786 Brookwood Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1003	$1,100	$1.10	44d	1	1.05mi
225 W McDowell Rd Jackson, MS	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	44d	18	1.08mi
2873 Teresa Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,100	$1.00	44d	1	1.17mi
427 McDowell Park Cir Jackson, MS	3.0	1.5	1308	$1,200	$0.92	14d	1	1.18mi
1805 Hospital Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,050	$0.79	14d	1	1.23mi
1533 Raymond Rd Jackson, MS	2.0	1.0	1135	$1,010	$0.89	44d	1	1.28mi
1223 Marydale Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1300	$950	$0.73	44d	1	1.30mi
3030 Oak Forest Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,100	$0.92	44d	1	1.38mi
3030 Oak Forest Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,100	$0.92	14d	1	1.38mi
3147 Bilgray Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1850	$1,306	$0.71	44d	1	1.38mi
3152 Bilgray Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,100	$0.92	14d	1	1.40mi
201 W Santa Clair St Jackson, MS	2.0	1.0	1182	$950	$0.80	14d	1	1.40mi
201 W Santa Clair St Jackson, MS	2.0	1.0	1182	$950	$0.80	23d	1	1.40mi
2904 Marwood Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1554	$1,250	$0.80	23d	1	1.41mi
3020 Lakewood Dr Jackson, MS	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,150	$0.72	23d	1	1.46mi
316 Woody Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1185	$1,250	$1.05	44d	1	1.49mi
316 Woody Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1185	$1,250	$1.05	14d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $67,500 Active 141 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $67,500 Active 140 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $67,500 Active 139 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $67,500 Active 138 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $67,500 Active 136 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $67,500 Active 135 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $67,500 Active 133 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $67,500 Active 132 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $67,500 Active 131 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $67,500 Active 130 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $67,500 Active 127 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $67,500 Active 126 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $67,500 Active 125 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $67,500 Active 124 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $67,500 Active 123 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $67,500 Active 122 DOM
17. 2026-04-30
    price $69,900 529-char remark

    Show marketing remark (529 chars)

    Bring your own paint and appliances to this fantastic single-family home with lots of potential! Featuring 3 large bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, this home boasts a fantastic layout and large living spaces with wood flooring throughout. The kitchen features lots of cabinet space with the convenience of an adjoining dining room. A 2 car garage, covered rear porch and fenced yard finish off this amazing house! Located near local shopping, dining, parks, and major roadways, providing access to surrounding areas and amenities.

18. 2026-03-28
    price $79,900 529-char remark

    Show marketing remark (529 chars)

    Bring your own paint and appliances to this fantastic single-family home with lots of potential! Featuring 3 large bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, this home boasts a fantastic layout and large living spaces with wood flooring throughout. The kitchen features lots of cabinet space with the convenience of an adjoining dining room. A 2 car garage, covered rear porch and fenced yard finish off this amazing house! Located near local shopping, dining, parks, and major roadways, providing access to surrounding areas and amenities.

19. 2026-03-10
    price $84,900 529-char remark

    Show marketing remark (529 chars)

    Bring your own paint and appliances to this fantastic single-family home with lots of potential! Featuring 3 large bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, this home boasts a fantastic layout and large living spaces with wood flooring throughout. The kitchen features lots of cabinet space with the convenience of an adjoining dining room. A 2 car garage, covered rear porch and fenced yard finish off this amazing house! Located near local shopping, dining, parks, and major roadways, providing access to surrounding areas and amenities.

20. 2026-01-28
    listed $89,900 Active 529-char remark

    Show marketing remark (529 chars)

    Bring your own paint and appliances to this fantastic single-family home with lots of potential! Featuring 3 large bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, this home boasts a fantastic layout and large living spaces with wood flooring throughout. The kitchen features lots of cabinet space with the convenience of an adjoining dining room. A 2 car garage, covered rear porch and fenced yard finish off this amazing house! Located near local shopping, dining, parks, and major roadways, providing access to surrounding areas and amenities.

21. 2025-12-30
    historical
22. 2025-11-16
    price $94,900
23. 2025-10-02
    listed $109,900 Active
24. 2014-04-04
    soldstatus
25. 2014-02-13
    soldstatus
26. 2014-01-06
    listed $20,800
27. 2013-08-14
    soldstatus
28. 1997-10-24
    soldstatus
29. 1990-11-26
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,316 · $110/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,316 · $110/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,773
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,781
• − Property taxes: −$1,316
• − Insurance: −$338
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,182
• − Management: −$1,182
• − Depreciation: −$1,964
• Taxable income: $5,011
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,203
• After-tax cash flow: $4,566/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2802190
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $33,234
• Composite: 10.89/100
• National rank: #9755
• State rank: #112 of 130 in MS

Livability — Jackson

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #66
• US rank: #9695

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jackson, MS
• County: Hinds County · 167,040 people
• City population: 140,204
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 13,249
• Household income: $30,237
• Rent vs Own: 66.3% rent · 33.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1099.0

Population outlook (Hinds County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 242,528 people
• By 2030: 241,113 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 235,557 · -2.9%
• By 2050: 226,946 · -6.4%
• By 2075: 199,995 · -17.5%
• By 2100: 164,165 · -32.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 90% White 5% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hinds

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.1) · D 72.4% · R 26.3% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: 39.0pp · 2024: 46.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.1 2020: D+48.3 2016: D+43.7 2012: D+45.1 2008: D+39.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.25%
• Current HPI: 233.9061
• Rent YoY: ▲ 13.56%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+236.1% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $69,900 MLSU
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $79,900 MLSU
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $84,900 MLSU
• 2026-01-28 Listed $89,900 MLSU
• 2025-12-30 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2025-11-16 Price Changed $94,900 MLSU
• 2025-10-02 Listed $109,900 MLSU
• 2014-04-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-02-13 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2014-01-06 Listed $20,800 MLSU
• 2013-08-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1997-10-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1990-11-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,316 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.